Today we kick off the weekend with a loaded 16 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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3:05 p.m. ET: New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies (-175, 8.5)
The Mets (41-57) took Thursday’s series opener 4-1, coming through as +105 road dogs.
In this afternoon’s rematch, the Mets hand the ball to lefty Sean Manaea (2-4, 4.56 ERA) and the Phillies (54-44) go with fellow southpaw Jesus Luzardo (8-4, 3.51 ERA).
This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -160 home favorite and New York a +140 road dog.
Sharps have laid the chalk with the Phillies to get back on track at home, pushing Philadelphia up from -160 to -175.
At DraftKings, the Phillies are taking in 89% of moneyline bets and 92% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” one-way Pro and Joe bet split in their favor.
Saturday home favorites priced -160 or higher receiving at least 10-cents of steam in their favor, like the Phillies here, are 25-9 (74%) with a 13% ROI this season.
Home favorites with line movement in their favor after dropping the series opener have gone 20-11 (65%) with a 5% ROI in the second game this season. When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the home favorite is 61-28 (69%) with a 15% ROI this season.
Luzardo has posted a 0.69 ERA in two July starts, giving up only 1 earned run in 13 innings pitched. Philadelphia is 9-0 in his last nine starts.
The Phillies are 25-22 at home. Meanwhile, the Mets are 20-29 on the road.
4:10 p.m. ET: Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers (-145, 8)
The Brewers (60-37) won last night’s series opener 2-1 in extra innings, hanging on as -155 home favorites.
In this afternoon’s rematch, the Marlins (52-46) start righty Max Meyer (9-1, 2.58 ERA) and the Brewers rebuttal with lefty Shane Drohan (4-3, 3.09 ERA).
This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a -130 home favorite and Miami a +110 road dog.
Sharps are riding the hot hand and have jumped on the Brewers laying modest chalk at home, driving Milwaukee up from -130 to -145.
At DraftKings, the Brewers are taking in 69% of moneyline bets and 83% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Milwaukee is receiving only 30% of moneyline bets but a hefty 93% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the home chalk, especially the pros in the desert.
When both teams are above .500, as is the case here, the team receiving line movement in their favor has gone 135-83 (62%) with a 12% ROI this season.
Above .500 home favorites off a win priced -155 or less receiving line movement in their favor are 71-45 (61%) with a 7% ROI this season.
Milwaukee offers correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Brewers are 30-18 at home, the 2nd best home record in MLB. The Marlins are 21-26 on the road.
8:08 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants at Seattle Mariners (-150, 7)
The Giants (42-55) dominated last night’s Interleague series opener 7-0, cashing as juicy +155 road dogs.
In tonight’s rematch, the Giants tap righty Logan Webb (5-7, 3.86 ERA) and the Mariners (48-50) start fellow righty Bryan Woo (7-6, 4.23 ERA).
This line opened with Seattle listed as a -130 home favorite and San Francisco a +110 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Mariners laying short chalk at home, steaming Seattle up from -130 to -150.
At DraftKings, Seattle is receiving 73% of moneyline bets and 92% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Mariners are receiving 83% of moneyline bets and over 90% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy in favor of the home chalk.
Home favorites with line movement in their favor after dropping the series opener have gone 20-11 (65%) with a 5% ROI in the second game this season.
Saturday home favorites priced -145 or higher receiving at least 10-cents of steam in their favor are 34-12 (74%) with a 16% ROI this season.
Seattle offers correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
Woo is 6-0 with a 2.10 ERA at home compared to 1-6 with a 6.28 ERA on the road.
On the other hand, Webb has posted a 10.80 ERA in two July starts, allowing 12 earned runs in 10 innings pitched (both losses).
The Mariners are 27-21 at home. The Giants are 20-30 on the road.
