Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Mike Beer handicaps the Saturday, July 18 racing card at Saratoga, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 11.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Jack and Jim (11th race)
Eleventh Race
1. Jack and Jim
2. El de Larry
3. Leon Blue
JACK AND JIM was an impressive debut winner as a 2yo, after which he returned to run over open stakes rivals in his second start; was first back from a 581-day layoff last month, and he appeared to be gearing up for a big stretch run when he clipped heels and lost his rider; good sign that he is back four weeks later without a break. EL DE LARRY has excellent tactical speed and a perfect post from which to deploy it as he makes his third start back from a layoff; he went 0-5 on turf in NY last year, but he just missed to Sounds Like a Plan in one of those while earning an 88 Beyer; not out of this at a price. LEON BLUE ended an otherwise excellent 3yo campaign on a sour note last October, and he has not quite gotten back in form after two starts so far this year, though he faced the aforementioned Sounds Like a Plan (has now won three in a row, and five of his last six) two back, and had no chance with Mi Bago last time; steps back into a better spot.
Here are Mike’s thoughts on the other eleven races on Saturday’s Saratoga card.
First Race
1. Got Tough
2. Powerline
3. Greenwell
GOT TOUGH has looked good breezing up to his debut. He capped off a solid series of works in Kentucky with a bullet half from the gate, and he dusted an unraced mate in that last five-furlong drill on this track; has some pedigree for LaRose, who studied under an excellent first-out trainer. $1.8 million son of Flightline POWERLINE has impressed in the morning for 2yo ace Asmussen. He was set to make his much-anticipated debut last month in Kentucky, before that track came up wet; looks like a runner, but expect him to get bet. GREENWELL owns the valuable experience edge via a solid debut run into a wire-to-wire winner five weeks ago; likely to be more professional with that experience behind him, after looking a bit green in that first start.
Second Race
1. My Noble Knight
2. Bernin Hot
3. Sweetalkingbourbon
MY NOBLE KNIGHT earned a career-best 95 Beyer for his blowout win here last summer. That was over a mile, but he also ran well in his prior start going this distance when trying to blitz that field with an early run, before settling for second; he is 0-6 at this distance, but he has run well in several of those races; looks well spotted second off the claim. BERNIN HOT hasn’t been in top form so far as a 5yo, though he has been in some tougher races than this one; speed from the rail, and his top race makes him tough in here as he drops in class for Rice. SWEETALKINGBOURBON is also dropping for this while looking to regroup out of a pair of subpar efforts to kick off his 5yo campaign; he was improving toward the end of 2025 before the layoff, and he has been freshened up for this.
Third Race
1. Corvus
2. Stayfrostymyfriend
3. Come Full Circle
CORVUS is 1 for 20 on the way into this, though that record isn’t quite as bad as it looks when considering that he has only run in the claiming ranks once – that in his most recent start when stuck wide chasing a fast pace; protected off the claim, and he has run plenty of races that make him competitive in this spot. STAYFROSTYMYFRIEND has continuously gotten away from the gate poorly, though he has run well in all three starts so far sprinting, particularly the maiden win at Finger Lakes when working out a nice closers trip before running that field right over; finished well again last time, though that whole field was making up late ground on tired leaders at the end; has upside, but needs to figure out the start. COME FULL CIRCLE has run well in three straight off the claim for these connections without winning; returns to the track and distance of his lone win while in good form.
Fourth Race
1. Bite and Strike
2. Dhabab
3. Attfield
BITE AND STRIKE recovered from a slow start to post an impressive win when sprinting for the first time on turf off the Rice claim in May; ran an even better race last time when handy from the start, before once again powering away from the field to make it 2 for 2 for this trainer; figures tough right back. DHABAB put together a strong 2025 campaign while finishing in the exacta in seven straight races, winning twice, and earning three Beyers in the mid-90s; hasn’t yet gotten back into that kind of form after two starts as a 7yo, though he does look like a good fit in this spot. ATTFIELD chased from the start and stayed gamely to finally tag a speedy rival on the wire when winning his debut over this course and distance; stretched out effectively to become a stakes winner two starts later, though he hasn’t progressed as a router so far this year; tries turning back with Lasix on as he steps back into his available condition.
Fifth Race
1. Kathynmarissa
2. Portfolio Duration
3. Dynamic Pricing
KATHYNMARISSA has run big in all three starts since joining this barn, including the Grade 3 win win off the bench, where she powered through the stretch to run over last year’s Breeders’ Cup winner for this division; took the worst of it last time when hung wide off a slow pace being set by winning stablemate PORTFOLIO DURATION; needs a better trip, but she can easily turn the tables. PORTFOLIO DURATION took advantage of that slow early pace in the New York, but she also raced off KATHYNMARISSA through a fast middle half-mile, then stubbornly denied a quality filly late to become a Grade 1 winner; doesn’t need the lead, and she still has upside; dangerous right back. DYNAMIC PRICING hasn’t run her top race in two starts so far as a 5yo; she ran well in this race last year, is already a Grade 1 winner on this turf course, and she loves “give” in the ground, which she might get on Saturday.
Sixth Race
1. Dr. Kapur
2. Five Wishes
3. Tab At Zanzibar
DR. KAPUR has failed to class up in stakes company twice since breaking his maiden, though he did get himself involved in a fast pace when stretched out in a Grade 2 last November; ran well in both starts sprinting as a 2yo while earning figures of 84 and 87, which already makes him one of the fasest colts in this field; turns back with Lasix on for Saffie – 150-to-180 day layoff, dirt, sprint, non-maiden: 8 for his last 16, 50%, $2.54 ROI. FIVE WISHES faded after showing speed in his first two starts in Florida; that running style played much better when dropped in class two back, and he backed that effort up with an even faster win last time; going good now, and draws outside again. TAB AT ZANZIBAR finished a good second behind an impressive winner in his debut after getting caught contesting the pace; had the experience edge last time when stalking from the outside, before powering clear in the stretch; still has plenty of upside as he just takes the next logical step.
Seventh Race
1. Energy Flows
2. Cruising Again
3. Effusive
ENERGY FLOWS raced down inside and gave game chase to a sharp winner on debut going shorter; bred to appreciate this added furlong (and more), and having a start is often a significant advantage in races like this. Maybe CRUISING AGAIN has been paired with slow horses in the morning. If not, she is really fast, as she has been running away from her workmates leading up to her debut, both here and in Kentucky; lands in a loaded-looking race, but she appears to be pretty precocious. EFFUSIVE is a homebred by a top sire and out of seven-time Grade 1 winner Monomoy Girl, whose first foal is already a winner and stakes-placed in California; likely to be better with more distance, and she will need a clean start from the rail.
Eighth Race
1. Sapphire Beach
2. Cy Fair
3. Hark Theangelssing
SAPPHIRE BEACH rated the pocket and put in a game run to outfinish main rival CY FAIR in the Grade 3 Limestone two starts back; has since handled a field of allowance horses with ease in her prep for this; going good now, and she will be right up close from the start. CY FAIR impressed winning her career debut over this course and distance, then dominated males to win two stakes at the end of her 2yo campaign, including a Breeders’ Cup win; might have needed that Limestone when outfinished by both the winner and SAPPHIRE BEACH, but she was back on track last time; the one to beat. HARK THEANGELSSING has yet to earn a figure that would threaten the top two, but she is a strong finisher exiting a stakes win in her 3yo debut; benefits most if SAPPHIRE BEACH and CY FAIR race each other early.
Ninth Race
1. Gadget Play
2. Noble Edition
3. Stimulate
GADGET PLAY gave off the impression that he might really benefit from the experience when debuting at Churchill, where he looked green early, before putting in a solid stretch run; expecting him to be more clued in with that run behind him for an excellent trainer. NOBLE EDITION made his debut here last month, where he was outrun from the start over a track that was kind to speed; he never went wide in that spot while taking a lot of dirt, then put in a game late run and galloped out well past the wire; eligible to improve quickly. STIMULATE made a positive impression in his lone start as a 2yo while dragging his rider into traffic and having to steady after a slow start, after which he put in a solid late run; well-bred colt went heads-up with older Grade 1 winner Baeza in that 6/20 drill; Lasix on.
Tenth Race
1. King’s Leap
2. Three B’s
3. Whittington Park
KING’S LEAP has been competitive with some strong competition right along, whether on this circuit or at his Finger Lakes base; has speed from the inside as he makes his third start back from a layoff, and this might be his preferred distance. THREE B’S has earned the top two figures of his career in his last two starts going the mile, though going this distance from the chute on this track adds an element of difficulty that isn’t present downstate; in-form 4yo just cleared this condition two back; forget the turf experiment last time. Like Three B’s, WHITTINGTON PARK has already cleared this allowance condition (he’s won twice at this level), and he is also a NY-bred stakes winner going this distance; rock-solid hard-hitter is a major threat off the claim, though he doesn’t always have gate speed, and he cannot afford to get outrun early from the chute.
Twelfth Race
1. Lake Ariel
2. Daylight Dreamer
3. Shake Em Off
LAKE ARIEL received a good education on debut here last summer while forced to chase and spending some time racing in and among horses; was entered for turf in the 3yo debut, where she ran well behind a pair of talented fillies, both of whom were entered MTO in that spot; stayed on dirt for the second start back but had no chance with that blowout winner; entered for turf again. DAYLIGHT DREAMER took a tough beat in her turf debut when forced to contest the pace all the way before getting nailed by a closer on the wire; didn’t run as well last time when dropped back from an outside post, though she did get into some trouble in the stretch; can have another chance. SHAKE EM OFF is by an excellent turf sire, though one that does not get a lot of debut winners; the dam was stakes-placed on grass, and she is a sister to three stakes winners, including 17-time turf winner Oak Bluffs; might need a start.
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