Today a new week begins with a loaded 15 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
Become a VSiN Pro subscriber today and get a full year for just $199 PLUS a copy of The NFL Sharp Betting Playbook by Josh Appelbaum >> Go here and use promo code BOOK to sign up.
7:10 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox (-160, 8.5)
The Orioles (49-51) have won seven straight and just swept the Astros, winning yesterday’s series finale 5-2 as +110 road dogs. Meanwhile, the Red Sox (50-48) have won 13 in a row and just swept the Rays, winning yesterday’s series finale 6-1 as -125 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Orioles hand the ball to righty Shane Baz (4-9, 4.19 ERA) and the Red Sox turn to lefty Payton Tolle (5-6, 3.11 ERA).
This line opened with Boston listed as a -135 home favorite and Baltimore a +115 road dog.
Sharps are riding the Red Sox to continue their hot streak, steaming Boston up from -135 to -160.
At DraftKings, the Red Sox are receiving over 80% of moneyline bets and dollars, a one-way Pro and Joe bet discrepancy in favor of the home chalk.
Monday favorites in the opening game of a new series receiving line movement in their favor, like the Red Sox here, are 63-40 (61%) with a 3% ROI this season.
Tolle is 5-3 with a 2.34 ERA in night games compared to 0-3 with a 5.24 ERA in day games.
Meanwhile, Baltimore is 6-13 in Baz’s 19 starts this season.
Boston has the better bullpen as well, sporting a team ERA of 3.09 (1st in MLB) compared to 4.12 for Baltimore (16th).
The Red Sox are 32-26 in night games. The Orioles are 27-29.
8:40 p.m. ET: Washington Nationals (-125, 12) at Colorado Rockies
The Nationals (50-50) just took two of three against the Athletics, winning yesterday’s series finale 5-2 as -150 road favorites. On the other hand, the Rockies (40-61) just dropped two of three against the Reds, losing yesterday’s series finale 9-6 as +140 home dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Nationals send out lefty Andrew Alvarez (2-3, 4.04 ERA) and the Rockies counter with fellow southpaw Kyle Freeland (2-8, 7.36 ERA).
This line opened with Washington listed as a -115 road favorite and Colorado a -105 home dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Nationals laying short chalk on the road, pushing Washington up from -115 to -125.
At DraftKings, the Nationals are receiving 81% of moneyline bets and 96% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Washington is taking in 78% of moneyline bets and 93% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” split in favor of the road chalk, especially the wiseguys in the desert.
Non-division road favorites off a win receiving line movement in their favor, like the Nats here, are 73-45 (62%) with a 6% ROI this season.
Monday road favorites are 34-22 (61%) with a 6% ROI this season. If they failed to make the playoffs the previous season, they improve to 12-6 (67%) with a 17% ROI this season.
Washington has the more productive bats, hitting 144 homers with 545 runs scored compared to Colorado hitting 116 homers with 484 runs scored.
Alvarez has posted a 2.45 ERA on the road compared to 4.99 at home.
On the other hand, Colorado is 6-12 in Freeland’s 18 starts this season.
The Nationals are 30-19 (61%) on the road this season, the 3rd best road team in MLB.
10 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Angels (-115, 9)
The Cardinals (51-47) just lost two of three against the Diamondbacks, dropping yesterday’s series finale 8-7 in extra innings as +105 road dogs. Similarly, the Angels (39-61) just dropped two of three against the Tigers but avoided the sweep, winning yesterday’s series finale 3-2 as +125 home dogs.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Cardinals tap righty Kyle Leahy (7-4, 3.73 ERA) and the Angels go with fellow righty Jose Soriano (8-6, 3.49 ERA).
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a -120 home favorite and St. Louis a +100 road dog.
Sharps have sided with the Cardinals as a short road dog, dropping the line away from Los Angeles (-120 to -115) and toward St. Louis (+100 to -105). In other words, smart Cardinals money has pushed this game closer to a pick’em.
At DraftKings, the Cardinals are taking in 70% of moneyline bets and 75% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, St. Louis is receiving over 90% of moneyline bets and dollars. Both books are showing a one-way Pro and Joe bet split in favor of the road team.
St. Louis offers correlative betting value as a dog in a high total game (9), with the more expected runs scored leading to more variance and upset opportunities.
Leahy has posted a 0.47 ERA over his last four starts, allowing only 1 earned run in 19.1 innings pitched.
Meanwhile, the Angels are just 1-4 in Soriano’s last five starts. He has posted a 3.99 ERA at home compared to 3.11 on the road and a 3.79 ERA at night compared to 2.95 during the day.
The Cardinals are 22-19 (54%) with an 18% ROI as a road dog this season, the 4th most profitable road dog in MLB. If the line is also moving in their favor, the Cardinals improve to 8-5 (62%) with a 34% ROI.
St. Louis is 25-21 on the road. Los Angeles is 22-27 at home.
