Player props have become one of baseball’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value well beyond the moneyline, run line, or game total. Each day, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board — from strikeouts and hits to total bases and pitcher outs recorded — using matchup data, recent form, and betting trends to identify edges. Keep reading for the top MLB player prop picks for July 21. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts will be all over the MLB, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
MORE: Check out the VSiN Pro Picks page for more bets from our talented hosts and analysts!
Tuesday Player Prop Best Bets
Below you’ll find my official plays on the player prop market for Tuesday. These are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record. I’ll write three up per day, but I’ll add additional ones in an “Additional Best Bets” section. I go lighter on baseball than I do other sports. My MLB units are 50% of what my normal units are.
Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-134) vs. Orioles
Orioles at Red Sox – 7:10 pm ET
Abreu cashed a play for us on Monday, finishing with five HRR against the Orioles. Well, I’m going back to him in tonight’s matchup with Kyle Bradish. Abreu is 0 for 2 against Bradish in his career, but he’s averaging 2.1 HRR per game against right-handed pitching over the last 20 games. He’s also averaging 2.5 HRR per game in his last 20 home games against righties. Abreu is just a reliable lefty bat in a plus matchup tonight. I’ll trust him to stay hot for a scorching Red Sox offense.
Matt Olson Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120) vs. Padres
Padres at Braves – 7:15 pm ET
Walker Buehler has surprisingly been a bet-on pitcher for me this season, but I like Olson to do something big this evening. Olson has gone Over 1.5 total bases in seven of his last 10 games against righty starters, averaging 3.3 total bases per game in that stretch. All year long, Olson has been a nightmare for opposing pitchers, and I don’t see that changing against a junk-throwing version of Buehler. Olson is 2 for 8 with a double and two RBIs in this matchup in his career, and I can easily see him adding another extra-base hit tonight. I wouldn’t even be surprised if he goes yard.
Matthew Liberatore Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+128) vs. Angels
Cardinals at Angels – 9:40 pm ET
The Angels have the highest strikeout rate in the league against southpaws this year, going down swinging 25.9% of the time against lefties. Los Angeles also happens to have a 27.6% whiff percentage against lefties. This is a prime matchup for Liberatore, who happens to be coming into this game off six or more strikeouts in two if his last three starts.
Additional Picks
Justin Wrobleski Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+120) vs. Phillies
Rafael Devers Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-131) vs. Royals
Kumar Rocker Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-137) vs. White Sox
Luis Garcia Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-117) vs. Rockies
Shea Langeliers Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105) vs. Diamondbacks
Noteworthy OptaAI Player Prop Edges
Check out the BRAND NEW OptaAI Player Props MLB pages for more of these! VSiN Pro subscribers can find 50+ player prop ideas on a daily basis! We’ll list the top edges in some of the biggest markets below, but there will always be a lot more to uncover on the pages themselves.
Henry Davis Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-137) vs. Yankees
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him going for 1.61 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -401 — a +22.2% edge to the Over.
Miles Mikolas Over 2.5 Strikeouts (-126) vs. Rockies
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 4.09 strikeouts, suggesting these odds should be -345 — a +21.8% edge to the Over.
Luke Raley Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-147) vs. Reds
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.65 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -423 — a +21.4% edge to the Over.
