Player props have become one of baseball’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value well beyond the moneyline, run line, or game total. Each day, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board — from strikeouts and hits to total bases and pitcher outs recorded — using matchup data, recent form, and betting trends to identify edges. Keep reading for the top MLB player prop picks for July 22. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts will be all over the MLB, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
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Wednesday Player Prop Best Bets
Below you’ll find my official plays on the player prop market for Wednesday. These are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record. I’ll write three up per day, but I’ll add additional ones in an “Additional Best Bets” section. I go lighter on baseball than I do other sports. My MLB units are 50% of what my normal units are.
Hunter Dobbins Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+113) vs. Angels
Cardinals at Angels – 4:07 pm ET
Dobbins comes into this start having recorded at least five strikeouts in two of his last three starts. The righty has looked rock solid for this Cardinals team thus far, so I’m going to him in a matchup with one of my favorite teams to fade. The Angels have the league’s highest strikeout rate (24.9%) and whiff percentage (27.5%) against righties this season. Dobbins, who has good velocity and two sinker-like looks he throws at hitters, should be able to miss some bats here.
Griffin Jax Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-105 – 1.5 units) & Alt Strikeouts 6+ (+217 – 0.5 units) vs. Blue Jays
Rays at Blue Jays – 7:07 pm ET
I won’t sit here and argue that this is a good matchup for Jax. The Jays have been one of the best teams in baseball when it comes to avoiding strikeouts this season. However, Jax has gone Over 4.5 strikeouts in six of his last seven starts, and he has also had at least six strikeouts in three of his last five. He’s just doing great work when it comes to the strikeout column, so I’m taking a shot on him going Over the discounted numbers this evening. His back-to-back five-strikeout outings against the Royals, who have also been good at avoiding Ks, show that he’s somewhat matchup proof.
Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-116) vs. Tigers
Tigers at Cubs – 8:10 pm ET
In the last 20 games in which Crow-Armstrong has gone up against righty starters, he’s averaging 2.7 hits, runs, and RBIs (HRR) per game. Of course, Crow-Armstrong has failed to reach that mark in four of the last five games, so he’s not exactly swinging a hot bat right now. But there’s nothing preventing him from getting back on track soon, and the matchup tonight isn’t too scary. Keider Montero is having a good season for the Tigers, but he’s far from unhittable.
Additional Picks
Luis Garcia Jr. Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-110) vs. Rockies
Merrill Kelly Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-126 – 1.5 units) & Alt Strikeouts 5+ (+189 – 0.5 units) vs. Athletics
Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+101) vs. Phillies
Noteworthy OptaAI Player Prop Edges
Check out the BRAND NEW OptaAI Player Props MLB pages for more of these! VSiN Pro subscribers can find 50+ player prop ideas on a daily basis! We’ll list the top edges in some of the biggest markets below, but there will always be a lot more to uncover on the pages themselves.
Jared Young Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-120) vs. Brewers
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him going for 1.64 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -414 — a +26.0% edge to the Over.
Tyler Callihan Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-115) vs. Yankees
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.52 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -357 — a +24.6% edge to the Over.
James Outman Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-127) vs. Cub
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.62 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -406 — a +24.3% edge to the Over.
