MLB Best Bets Today July 22
A full day on the diamond features several getaway day games and a bunch of night games as those looking to lock in on MLB have the chance to do so for the duration of July 22. The summer heat has played a role, but we have seen a pretty decent offensive uptick, as hitters are collectively slashing .252/.323/.428 in the second half after slashing .249/.320/.420 in June and .245/.318/.417 in July prior to the Break.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for July 22:
Rays vs. Blue Prediction
Pick: Blue Jays -110
The Rays and Jays square off in a battle for AL East bragging rights tonight. It will be Griffin Jax for Tampa Bay and the combination of Braydon Fisher and Spencer Miles for Toronto, as Fisher will open and then give way to Miles.
Jax got ripped by the red-hot Red Sox last time out, allowing seven runs on eight hits over five innings. It was the first dud for Jax since June 1, a major accomplishment given that he’s a starting pitcher for the first time at the MLB level. Since moving into the rotation and actually working deeper into games, Jax has a 3.84 ERA with a 5.13 xERA and a 4.10 FIP in 13 starts dating back to May 7. He actually entered the rotation earlier, but was getting stretched out to work multiple innings.
I’m actually surprised at how Jax has kept up his K% while starting and turning lineups over, but that 5.13 xERA is hard to ignore. He’s allowed an 18.2% HR/FB% in that span and a 9.5% Barrel%. By FanGraphs’ Game Score, two of Jax’s three worst starts have come in his second start against an AL East foe. The last start against Boston and a rough May 26 outing against the Orioles, as he was facing them for the second time. The Blue Jays are facing him for the second time as a starter. They drew a season-high four walks off of him on May 13 and had eight hits, but as has been the story for Toronto all season long, they couldn’t get that big hit.
Fisher worked an inning against the Rays a couple days ago and allowed a run on a couple of hits. He has a 3.65 ERA with a 3.73 xERA and a 4.12 FIP on the season, so he’s had a lot more good outings than bad ones. That’s true of Miles as well, who has a 3.52 ERA with a 3.22 xERA and a 3.10 FIP in 64 innings pitched across four starts and 23 relief efforts. He has only allowed a 33.7% Hard Hit% and a 3.9% Barrel, both stellar numbers. That’s a 92nd percentile Barrel% and he also has good Extension with an excellent fastball.
From a bullpen standpoint, all the primary relievers for the Blue Jays are well-rested and ready to go. The Rays have all their top arms available as well, but my hope is that it’s Toronto with a lead to protect.
White Sox vs. Rangers Prediction
Pick: White Sox -110
This game is listed as Anthony Kay vs. Tyler Alexander, but Alexander will serve as the opener for Cal Quantrill. Alexander has maxed out at 1.1 innings dating back to June 16, so we’ll see how far he’s able to work into the game. This is a pretty left-handed-heavy White Sox lineup, so I’m sure he’ll be pushed as far as he can make it. He’s been really good this season with a 2.79 ERA, 3.21 xERA, and a 2.84 FIP.
Quantrill has not been as good and there are some pretty concerning signs in the profile. He’s got a 3.93 ERA with a 4.90 xERA and a 5.07 FIP. He’s still an extreme pitch-to-contact guy with just a 14.4% K%. Fortunately for him, he hasn’t allowed a ton of hard contact, but has allowed a 9.6% Barrel%. More recently, Quantrill has been tasked with working longer outings. He has allowed 10 runs on 21 hits in his last 19 innings, including a six-run blow-up against the Braves last time out. Lefties are slashing .310/.386/.520 with a .389 wOBA against him on the season, so I feel like the White Sox should be in a good spot.
Kay has a 4.24 ERA with a 5.33 xERA and a 5.09 FIP, so the numbers aren’t real great. A lot of that has to do with the fact that he throws a lot of pitches and has a lot of deep counts. He’s had some tremendously bad starts, but has actually allowed two or fewer earned runs 13 of his 18 starts, plus a couple of relief appearances. He’s got really good Stuff+ numbers and it looks like he should be doing better than he is. Perhaps an outing here in a pretty good pitcher’s park will help.
In July, the Rangers pen has pitched to a 6.83 ERA with a 4.97 xERA and a 4.14 FIP, while the White Sox have a 2.93/.3.38/3.81 pitcher slash from their relievers. I’ll take my chances with the better offense and the better bullpen here.
