Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, July 22, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Having at least 50 games under their belt for the year, interleague plus-money underdogs who have a 10% or higher win percentage than their opponent have gone 50-38 SU for +20.39 units (ROI: 23.2%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (+110 at LAA)
Teams on 7+ game winning streaks playing against an intraleague opponent with a win percentage within 10% of them have gone 60-22 SU (+25.93 units, ROI: 31.6%) when priced in the -350 to +100 line range since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON GAME 1 (-156 vs BAL)
Trend: Max Fried’s teams are 22-5 (+14.24 units) in his last 27 starts vs NL Central opponents
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES GAME 2 (-168 vs PIT)
Trend: CLEVELAND has dominated Minnesota in recent seasons of head-to-head play, going 40-18 (69%, +22.77 units).
– The ROI on this trend is 39.3%
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-126 vs MIN)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The 2-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are back to profitability at 165-125 for +4.76 units and an ROI of 1.3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA ANGELS (-132 vs STL), DETROIT (+104 at CHC), HOUSTON (-120 vs MIA)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a 108-145 start for -5.11 units. After losing about 15 units over the last month, this angle has finally gone into the red for the season, it’s usual territory.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH GAME 1 (+153 at NYY), ST LOUIS (+110 at LAA)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 204-257 for -31.21 units. This ROI of -6.8% is much less than what we’ve come to expect.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): COLORADO (+119 vs WSH), TAMPA BAY (-107 at TOR), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-110 at TEX), DETROIT (+104 at CHC)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -111 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 175-110 for +44.16 units, an ROI of +15.5%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-120 at KC), LA DODGERS (-120 at PHI), CLEVELAND (-126 vs MIN), ATLANTA (-117 vs SD), HOUSTON (-120 vs MIA)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 130-157 start for -19.56 units (ROI -6.8%).
System Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (+100 vs SF)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 100-112 for +1.94 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS (+110 at LAA), MINNESOTA (+105 at CLE), TORONTO (-112 vs TB), MIAMI (-101 at HOU)
MLB Post-All-Star Break Trends/Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays look at how teams fare coming out of the All-Star break in previous seasons. This study looks at the first three series for each team after the Midsummer Classic, unless otherwise noted.
In the first three series post-All-Star break, home underdogs are 168-162 for +45.20 units (ROI: 13.7%) since 2019.
Trend Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (+100 vs SF), COLORADO (+119 vs WSH), PHILADELPHIA (+100 vs LAD)
In the first three series post-All-Star break, games with higher totals (O/U >= 9) have gone Under at a 367-280-39 (56.7%) rate since 2016.
Trend Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): PIT-NYY GAME 1 (o/u at 9.5), BAL-BOS GAME 1 (o/u at 9.5), WSH-COL (o/u at 11.5), ATH-AZ (o/u at 9), LAD-PHI (o/u at 9.5), PIT-NYY GAME 2 (o/u at 9), BAL-BOS GAME 2 (o/u at 9)
TEAM NOTABLES (*first three series post ASB*)
* ARIZONA – 17-9 (+6.97 units) at home since 2021 ASB
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-131 vs ATH)
* ATLANTA – 38-51 SU (-19.43 units) overall since 2016 ASB
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-117 vs SD)
* CHICAGO CUBS – 51-34-5 (60%) to the Under overall since 2016 ASB
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-CHC (o/u at 8)
* CINCINNATI – 28-13-1 (68.3%) to the Under overall since 2022 ASB
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CIN-SEA (o/u at 8)
* COLORADO – 30-12-3 (71.4%) to the Under at home since 2018 ASB
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): WSH-COL (o/u at 11.5)
* COLORADO – 13-9 SU (+9.51 units) at home since 2023 ASB
Trend Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+119 vs WSH)
* KANSAS CITY – 23-13 (63.9%) to the Under at home since 2021 ASB
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SF-KC (o/u at 8.5)
* LA DODGERS – 21-8 SU (+8.31 units) as a road favorite since 2017 ASB
Trend Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-120 at PHI)
* NY METS – 25-16 SU (+11.12 units) on the road since 2018 ASB
Trend Match (PLAY): NY METS (+117 at MIL)
* PITTSBURGH – 7-17 SU (-6.39 units) on the road since 2019 ASB
Trend Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH GAME 1 and GAME 2
* SAN DIEGO – 26-16 SU (+11.90 units) on the road in the -145 to +190 line range since 2021 ASB
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-103 at ATL)
* SAN FRANCISCO – 10-25 SU (-17.01 units) on the road since 2022 ASB
Trend Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-120 at KC)
* TAMPA BAY – 10-19 SU (-9.80 units) on the road since 2022 ASB
Trend Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-109 at TOR)
* TEXAS – 21-6 SU (+13.92 units) at home since 2023 ASB
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-110 vs CWS)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 457-481 but for +29.53 units and an ROI of 3.1% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-120 at KC), ST LOUIS (+110 at LAA), MIAMI (-101 at HOU)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 401-452 but for +88.61 units and an ROI of 10.4% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH GAME 2 (+139 at NYY), BALTIMORE GAME 2 (+119 at BOS), NY METS (+117 at MIL), ST LOUIS (+102 at LAA)
*WATCH FOR DETROIT at CHC (-101 CURRENTLY) and MIAMI at HOU (-101 CURRENTLY)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2,161-2,044 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -268.14 units. This represents an ROI of -6.4%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY (-107 at TOR), TEXAS (-110 vs CWS), CHICAGO CUBS (-120 vs DET)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,196-2,772 (44.2%) for -271.05 units and an ROI of -5.5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS, MINNESOTA, SAN FRANCISCO, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, DETROIT, ST LOUIS
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 657-552 (54.3%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +16.19 units, for an ROI of 1.3%.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-141 vs NYM)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 351-313 (52.9%) for +21.92 units and an ROI of 3.3% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-112 vs TB)
Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 109-154 SU (-20.77 units, ROI: -7.9%) as underdogs in the follow-up contest since May 2024.
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+119 vs WSH)
Bats revert to the mean after high-scoring outing
Teams having scored 7+ runs the previous day have slowed down when playing as day game intraleague underdogs/pick em’s with high totals (>= 9.5), as Under the total is 147-107-17 (57.9%) since the end of July 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): WSH-COL (o/u at 11.5)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #3:
In MLB games with high totals (>= 10.5), underdogs between the +116 to +180 line range have gone 235-272 SU but for +47.07 units (ROI: 9.3%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+119 vs WSH)
MLB Team Strength Betting System #6:
Having at least 50 games under their belt for the year, interleague plus-money underdogs who have a 10% or higher win percentage than their opponent have gone 50-38 SU for +20.39 units (ROI: 23.2%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (+110 at LAA)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more are on a 43-109 skid (-41.86 units, ROI -27.5%) in the next game when playing as road underdogs.
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (-101 at HOU)
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 20-25 (+8.79 units, ROI: 19.5%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 104-189 (-65.70 units, ROI: -22.4%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (-101 at HOU)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 313-326 run (+8.42 units, ROI: 1.3%).
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-120 at KC), ST LOUIS (+110 at LAA), MIAMI (-101 at HOU)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 202-160 (+20.14 units, ROI: 5.6%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON GAME 1 (-156 vs BAL)
Winning Streak Betting System #11:
Teams on 7+ game winning streaks playing against an intraleague opponent with a win percentage within 10% of them have gone 60-22 SU (+25.93 units, ROI: 31.6%) when priced in the -350 to +100 line range since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON GAME 1 (-156 vs BAL)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 417-407 for +9.61 units, good for 1.2% ROI.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: COLORADO +119 (+18)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: SEATTLE -157 (+33), MILWAUKEE -143 (+27), ARIZONA -131 (+24), NY YANKEES GAME 2 (+22), HOUSTON -120 (+17), BOSTON -137 (+16) LA DODGERS -120 (+10)
If you’re looking for something that has produced with a little less ROI but provides more opportunities, consider the situation where on Under projections so far, when the simulation shows at least a 0.6 run edge, Unders are 98-78 for +10.65 units and an ROI of 6.1%.
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.6 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: PIT-NYY GAME 1 UNDER 9.5 (-0.8), PIT-NYY GAME 2 UNDER 9 (-0.8), ATH-AZ UNDER 9 (-0.7), BAL-BOS GAME 1 UNDER 9.5 (-0.6)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(901) NEW YORK-NL (43-59) at (902) MILWAUKEE (63-38)
Trend: NYM is 4-8 (-5.37 units) on the road with starter Christian Scott in his career
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (+117 at MIL)
Trend: MIL is 33-19 (+3.51 units) at home this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-141 vs NYM)
(903) WASHINGTON (51-51) at (904) COLORADO (41-62)
Trend: WSH is 36-15 (+16.92 units) on the run line in away games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (-1.5 at COL)
(905) LOS ANGELES-NL (64-38) at (906) PHILADELPHIA (56-46)
Trend: PHI is 16-30 (-11.93 units) as an underdog with Aaron Nola in the last 6+ seasons
Trend: PHI is 3-7 (-3.69 units) vs LA Dodgers with starter Aaron Nola in the last 6+ seasons
Trends Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+100 vs LAD)
(909) MINNESOTA (49-53) at (910) CLEVELAND (54-48)
Trend: Over the total is 32-16-3 (+14.40 units) in MIN road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-CLE (o/u at 8)
(915) CHICAGO-AL (53-47) at (916) TEXAS (51-50
Trend: CWS is 3-6 (-4.24 units) on the road with starter Anthony Kay this season
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-110 at TEX)
Trend: TEX is 9-15 (-6.09 units) on the run line vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (+1.5 vs CWS)
(917) PITTSBURGH (52-49) at (918) NEW YORK-AL (56-44) (DH GAME #2)
Trend: Max Fried’s teams are 22-5 (+14.24 units) in his last 27 starts vs NL Central opponents
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES GAME 2 (-168 vs PIT)
(921) ATHLETICS (43-58) at (922) ARIZONA (52-49)
Trend: Under the total is 31-19-1 (+10.10 units) in ATH road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ATH-AZ (o/u at 9)
(925) ST LOUIS (51-49) at (926) LOS ANGELES-AL (41-61)
Trend: LAA is 10-18 (-12.94 units) as a home favorite/pick ’em with starter Reid Detmers in his career
Trend Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (-132 vs STL)
(929) MIAMI (52-50) at (930) HOUSTON (49-54)
Trend: Over the total is 26-16-3 (+8.40 units) when MIA is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-HOU (o/u at 8)
(933) BALTIMORE (49-52) at (934) BOSTON (51-48) (DH GAME #1)
Trend: BAL is 19-6 (+14.20 units) in the last 25 divisional games with starter Dean Kremer
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE GAME 1 (+129 at BOS)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #32: Minnesota at Cleveland, Mon 7/20-Thu 7/23
Trend: CLEVELAND has dominated Minnesota in recent seasons of head-to-head play, going 40-18 (69%, +22.77 units).
– The ROI on this trend is 39.3%
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-126 vs MIN)
Series #35: Chicago White Sox at Texas, Mon 7/20-Wed 7/22
Trend: TEXAS is 16-3 (84.2%, +10.85 units) in their last 19 games versus the Chicago White Sox
– The ROI on this trend is 57.1%
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-110 vs CWS)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): ATHLETICS, BALTIMORE, SAN DIEGO
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES GAME 1 and GAME 2, SAN FRANCISCO, SEATTLE, ATHLETICS, ST LOUIS, DETROIT, HOUSTON
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): PIT-NYY GAME 1, WSH-COL, LAD-PHI
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Friday, July 24)
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