Player props have become one of baseball’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value well beyond the moneyline, run line, or game total. Each day, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board — from strikeouts and hits to total bases and pitcher outs recorded — using matchup data, recent form, and betting trends to identify edges. Keep reading for the top MLB player prop picks for July 23. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts will be all over the MLB, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
MORE: Check out the VSiN Pro Picks page for more bets from our talented hosts and analysts!
Thursday Player Prop Best Bets
Below you’ll find my official plays on the player prop market for Thursday. These are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record. I’ll write three up per day, but I’ll add additional ones in an “Additional Best Bets” section. I go lighter on baseball than I do other sports. My MLB units are 50% of what my normal units are.
Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-122) vs. Blue Jays
Rays at Blue Jays – 3:07 pm ET
Shane Bieber will be on the mound for Toronto today. That’d normally be a bad thing for Tampa Bay, but Bieber hasn’t looked like himself since returning from injury. Through five starts, the righty has a 5.70 ERA and his strikeout rate is down at 17.6%. With that in mind, this is a matchup in which we can go ahead and take Rays hitter props. Well, I’ll take Aranda to go Over 1.5 HRR. This season, Aranda is averaging 2.3 HRR per game when facing right-handed starters. He has also gone Over in six of the last eight of those games.
Michael McGreevy Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+135) vs. Diamondbacks
Diamondbacks at Cardinals – 5:15 pm ET
McGreevy has had at least four strikeouts in two of his last three outings, and he has also gone Over 3.5 strikeouts in back-to-back home starts. On top of that, McGreevy just had five strikeouts against this same Diamondbacks lineup in Arizona on July 17. That said, I’m firing up the righty to finish with another four strikeouts tonight. At +135 odds, it’s hard to lay off something we just witnessed.
Troy Melton Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-115) vs. Royals
Royals at Tigers – 6:40 pm ET
Melton comes into this start having racked up at least six strikeouts in four consecutive outings. Melton has also had at least seven strikeouts in three straight, and he comes into this one off back-to-back nine-K starts. I would normally play a pitcher this hot to go Over some alternate numbers, but the Royals have been solid when it comes to avoiding strikeouts this year. So, I’ll simply ride with the righty to have six or more Ks.
Additional Picks
Brooks Lee Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+103) vs. Guardians
Noteworthy OptaAI Player Prop Edges
Check out the BRAND NEW OptaAI Player Props MLB pages for more of these! VSiN Pro subscribers can find 50+ player prop ideas on a daily basis! We’ll list the top edges in some of the biggest markets below, but there will always be a lot more to uncover on the pages themselves.
Kyle Manzardo Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-143) vs. Twins
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him going for 1.76 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -481 — a +23.9% edge to the Over.
Royce Lewis Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-150) vs. Guardians
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.70 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -445 — a +21.6% edge to the Over.
Freddy Fermin Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-138) vs. Braves
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.46 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -330 — a +18.8% edge to the Over.
