MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Thursday, July 23.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
12:15 PM Eastern
San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves
Braves starting pitcher Chris Sale has been tremendous this season, posting a 2.06 ERA with 10.5 strikeouts and 2.1 walks per nine innings. He is also backed by the National League’s top bullpen with a 3.14 ERA. The Padres rank third in the National League in bullpen ERA at 3.66, but starting pitcher Griffin Canning has struggled to a 6.67 ERA while allowing 1.4 home runs and 4.9 walks per nine innings.
Pick: Braves Run Line -1.5 +100
Greg’s Handicap: Braves -1.5 -112
1:10 PM Eastern
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians
Guardians starter Gavin Williams owns a 4.00 ERA with 10.9 strikeouts per nine innings, though he has also allowed 1.5 home runs per nine innings. His lower 3.86 fielding independent points toward better results. Twins starter Taj Bradley is another power arm, posting a 3.85 ERA with 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings while allowing 1.3 home runs and 3.6 walks per nine innings. However, Bradley’s ERA rises to 4.50 with 1.6 home runs allowed per nine innings on the road. Minnesota’s bullpen ranks 27th in ERA at 5.11, while Cleveland’s relief corps ranks seventh at 3.71.
Pick: Guardians Moneyline -130
Greg’s Handicap: Guardians -148
3:07 PM Eastern
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Rays starter Ian Seymour has performed much better as a starter than as a reliever during his career, averaging 11.4 strikeouts per nine innings as a starter compared to 9.5 out of the bullpen. He has also pitched better than his 4.79 ERA suggests this season, posting a 4.40 fielding independent. Blue Jays starter Shane Bieber has struggled to a 5.70 ERA with an even worse 6.86 fielding independent while allowing 2.7 home runs and 4.6 walks per nine innings. He is also backed by a Toronto lineup that ranks 30th in scoring at four runs per game.
Pick: Rays Moneyline -110 and Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Rays -119 and Total 7.9
5:15 PM Eastern
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals starter Michael McGreevy pitches to plenty of contact, recording only 5.9 strikeouts per nine innings, but he has produced a 2.92 ERA while allowing just 1.2 home runs and two walks per nine innings. He also draws a favorable matchup against a Diamondbacks lineup that ranks 21st in road scoring at 4.3 runs per game. Arizona starter Brandon Pfaadt has allowed only five total runs over 21 innings in his four starts since returning to the rotation, though his season-long 4.58 ERA with just 6.7 strikeouts per nine innings remains a concern.
Pick: Cardinals Moneyline -126
Greg’s Handicap: Cardinals -143
6:40 PM Eastern
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers
The Royals rank last in the league in road scoring at just 3.7 runs per game and now face Tigers starter Troy Melton, who owns a sparkling 1.80 ERA with 8.2 strikeouts and 2.5 walks per nine innings. Kansas City is expected to use Randy Dobnak as either the starter or bulk pitcher. Dobnak has posted an excellent 1.93 ERA, though he has logged only 14 innings this season. It is also worth noting that the Royals placed Bobby Witt Jr. on the injured list this week.
Pick: Royals vs. Tigers Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.7
