MLB Best Bets Today July 27
A huge week begins in Major League Baseball with the Friday card, as we’ve got the Trade Deadline a week away. Like I’ve said, it’s an uncomfortable time for a lot of people, as guys will be shipped off to new places and have to leave their families behind, plus friendships in the clubhouse will weather a big storm because “it’s the nature of the business”. Some guys on contenders will lose jobs as their teams are buyers. It’s a busy week of games, but there are a lot of other things to think about.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for July 27:
Cubs vs. Cardinals Prediction
Pick: Cubs -120
David Peterson will attempt to get revenge against the Cardinals after he allowed 10 runs on nine hits in just 3.2 innings of work against them on July 3 in his first Wrigley Field start as a member of the Cubs. The Cardinals have TBD listed in some spots, but the expectation is that Matthew Liberatore will get the starting nod. It’s his turn in the rotation.
Peterson came back from the All-Star Break with 6.2 innings of excellent work against the Tigers with just three hits scattered over a shutout effort. Peterson’s spin rates kicked back up across the board with the 12-day layoff, as I’m sure it was a bit of a whirlwind for the 30-year-old who was drafted by the Mets in the first round back in 2017.
Well-rested, Peterson had his third-highest fastball spin rate and highest in a start this season. We haven’t seen Peterson leverage his best pitch, the slider, as much with the Cubs as he did with the Mets. I think that’ll change going forward and we saw him get back to inducing ground balls with a 47.4% GB% in that July 21 outing.
Assuming it is Liberatore, he has a 5.18 ERA with a 5.29 xERA and a 4.83 FIP over his 99 innings of work. The Break didn’t do him any favors, as he returned to allow five runs on nine hits with seven strikeouts against two walks in 5.1 innings against the Angels. Perhaps the Cardinals intended to use an opener for him, but used five relievers yesterday and closer Riley O’Brien was out sick.
The Cubs have slashed .290/.382/.503 against LHP in July with a .384 wOBA. The Cardinals have slashed just .231/.303/.384 and that includes what they did to Peterson. I think that was a one-off and I like the Cubs today.
Brewers vs. Giants Prediction
Pick: Giants +113
The Brewers play their first road game of the second half a long way from home as they’re in San Francisco to take on the Giants. It will be Brandon Sproat for Milwaukee and Tyler Mahle for San Francisco, as the Giants try to shake off yesterday’s loss to the Angels. The Brewers had a jolly flight to the left coast after pummeling the Rockies with another great start from Jacob Misiorowski.
Mahle has been very good at home for the Giants, as he comes in with a 3.00 ERA over 45 innings with a .210/.291/.352 slash against and a .287 wOBA against. Don’t look at his road numbers, as they are terrible, but he’s thrown the ball well of late, allowing just 11 earned runs over his last 26.1 innings of work. That’s the period of time since he came off the IL. He has only allowed two home runs in that span with a 20/9 K/BB ratio.
Sproat has been decent of late, but he has a 5.09 ERA with a 4.94 xERA and a 5.21 FIP over his 86.2 innings of work. He doesn’t work very deep into games, which feels problematic as the Brewers embark on a road trip. Sproat hasn’t completed five innings in any of his last three starts. A lot was made early in the season about the Giants not drawing many walks, but that dynamic has changed a bit of late.
The Giants bullpen is well-rested after Adrian Houser mopped up a lot of work yesterday. I also wonder about the Brewers and the body shock of playing late, especially with such a commanding lead in the division. This feels like a schedule loss/load management type of situation coming off of a long homestand.
