Player props have become one of baseball’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value well beyond the moneyline, run line, or game total. Each day, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board — from strikeouts and hits to total bases and pitcher outs recorded — using matchup data, recent form, and betting trends to identify edges. Keep reading for the top MLB player prop picks for July 3. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts will be all over the MLB, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
MORE: Check out the VSiN Pro Picks page for more bets from our talented hosts and analysts!
Friday Player Prop Best Bets
Below you’ll find my official plays on the player prop market for Friday. These are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record. I’ll write three up per day, but I’ll add additional ones in an “Additional Best Bets” section. I go lighter on baseball than I do other sports. My MLB units are 50% of what my normal units are.
Grant Holmes Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-120) vs. Mets
Mets at Braves – 7:15 pm ET
As I was getting ready to publish this story, these odds were getting worse and worse. That said, it looks like the right people are betting the Over on this one. Holmes has gone five straight starts without reaching the five-strikeout mark, but I like him to get there this evening. Holmes is facing a Mets team with a strikeout rate of 22.3% and whiff percentage of 25.4%. This is a good get-right spot for him.
Rafael Devers Over 1.5 Total Bases (-117) vs. Rockies
Giants at Rockies – 8:10 pm ET
This season, Devers is averaging 1.9 total bases per game against right-handed starters. Also, over the last 20 games in which he has gone up against a righty, he’s averaging 2.6 total bases per game. That said, with righty Ryan Feitner on the mound for Colorado, Devers has a favorable matchup. On top of that, Devers will be going to work at Coors Field, in a game with a total of 11. He should do some damage.
Spencer Arrighetti Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+115) vs. Rays
Rays at Astros – 8:15 pm ET
Arrighetti comes into this start having racked up at least seven strikeouts in four consecutive outings. He’s in a nice groove right now, so I’m willing to grab the plus-money price on him to finish with six strikeouts or more. The Rays are a tough opponent, but that’s why the total is as low as it is. Arrighetti will also be starting at Daikin Park here. He has had at least eight strikeouts in three of his five home starts.
Additional Picks
Luis Garcia Over 1.5 Total Bases (-109) vs. Pirates
Mike Paredes Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+120) vs. Yankees
Rhys Hoskins Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+115) vs. White Sox
Brady Singer Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+125) vs. Orioles
Jake Bennett Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-135) vs. Angels
Nick Kurtz Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+105) vs. Marlins
Kyle Harrison Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+132) vs. Diamondbacks
Michael King Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-115) vs. Dodgers
Noteworthy OptaAI Player Prop Edges
Check out the BRAND NEW OptaAI Player Props MLB pages for more of these! VSiN Pro subscribers can find 50+ player prop ideas on a daily basis! We’ll list the top edges in some of the biggest markets below, but there will always be a lot more to uncover on the pages themselves.
Luke Raley Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-115) vs. Blue Jays
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him going for 1.68 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -436 — a +27.9% edge to the Over.
Lujames Groover Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-138) vs. Brewers
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.58 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -385 — a +21.4% edge to the Over.
Connor Wong Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-146) vs. Angels
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.53 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -364 — a +19.1% edge to the Over.
