Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, July 3, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 389-194 (66.7%) for +57.35 units and an ROI of 9.8%!
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-131 vs STL)
MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 241-179 for +22.69 units and an ROI of 5.4% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (-123 at CIN), TAMPA BAY (-114 at HOU), TORONTO (-126 at SEA)
ARIZONA letdown in follow-up game after divisional series vs. San Francisco: 8-20 record (28.6%) for -12.69 units, ROI: -45.3%
Trend Match (FADE): ARIZONA (+124 vs MIL)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. These teams have had a couple tough weeks lately, sitting at 139-115 for -10.62 units and an ROI of -4.2% on the season.
System Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (-114 vs BOS)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen HAS TO be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 29-25 for –3.85 units (ROI -7.1%).
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-156 at COL)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 96-121 for +3.66 units. This is lasting longer than I would expect. However, it has lost almost 6.29 units over the last three-and-a-half weeks and is headed in its usual direction.
System Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (+102 vs BAL)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of the teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record is 41-24 for -12.02 units, ROI -18.5%, as it is now acting like its usual self.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-258 vs SD)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick em’). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounceback in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 167-225 for -39.48 units. This ROI of -10.1% is still advantageous to blind wagering, just not what we’ve come to expect at all.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (+124 at WSH), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+109 at CLE), MIAMI (+114 at ATH)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -111 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 143-93 for +32.36 units, an ROI of +13.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (-123 at CIN), ATLANTA (-114 vs NYM), LA ANGELS (-114 vs BOS)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 111-140 start for -26.62 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (-149 vs PIT), CLEVELAND (-132 vs CWS), COLORADO (+129 vs SF)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 87-87 for +11.66 units.
System Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (+208 at LAD)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 493-393 for +43.36 units and an ROI of 4.9% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-131 vs STL), SEATTLE (+105 vs TOR), TAMPA BAY (-114 at HOU)
MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 241-179 for +22.69 units and an ROI of 5.4% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (-123 at CIN), TAMPA BAY (-114 at HOU), TORONTO (-126 at SEA)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 426-361 but for -83.94 units and an ROI of -10.7% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (-149 vs PIT), LA ANGELS (-114 vs BOS)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 443-396 record for +41.52 units and an ROI of 4.9% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (+108 at CHC), PITTSBURGH (+124 at WSH), BALTIMORE (-123 at CIN), SAN FRANCISCO (-156 at COL), MINNESOTA (+153 at WSH), TORONTO (-126 at SEA)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2,134-2,016 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -267.81 units. This represents an ROI of -6.5%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON, CHICAGO CUBS, TORONTO, COLORADO, ST LOUIS, TEXAS, LA DODGERS
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2165-2741 (44.1%) for -271.50 units and an ROI of -5.6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-105 at LAA), MILWAUKEE (-156 at AZ)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 648-541 (54.5%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +20.48 units, for an ROI of 1.7%.
System Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (-114 vs BOS)
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 389-194 (66.7%) for +57.35 units and an ROI of 9.8%!
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-131 vs STL)
Bats revert to the mean after high-scoring outing
Teams having scored 7+ runs the previous day have slowed down when playing as day game intraleague underdogs/pick ’ems with high totals (>= 9.5), as Under the total is 145-104-17 (58.2%) since the end of July 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): STL-CHC (o/u at 10.5)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #3:
In MLB games with high totals (>= 10.5), underdogs between the +116 to +180 line range have gone 231-267 SU but for +47.07 units (ROI: 9.5%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+129 vs SF)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 19-24 (+7.91 units, ROI: 18.4%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 101-185 (-64.80 units, ROI: -22.7%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-187 vs MIN)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 254-171 in their last 425 tries (+34.97 units, ROI: 8.2%).
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-114 at HOU)
Winning Streak Betting System #10:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 165-167 (-71.58 units, ROI: -21.6%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-131 vs STL)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: SAN DIEGO +208 (+25 diff), MIAMI +114 (+22)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: CLEVELAND -132 (+20 diff), ATLANTA -114 (+15), SAN FRANCISCO -156 (+15)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: TOR-SEA OVER 7 (+0.6)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: MIL-AZ UNDER 9 (-0.6), SD-LAD UNDER 8 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) ST LOUIS (45-39) at (952) CHICAGO-NL (49-38)
Trend: STL is 32-16 (+9.76 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (+1.5 at CHC)
(953) PITTSBURGH (44-44) at (954) WASHINGTON (45-43)
Trend: PIT is 13-24 (-11.58 units) vs NL East teams with starter Mitch Keller in the last 6+ seasons
Trend: PIT is 5-16 (-15.22 units) vs LH starters this season
Trends Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+124 at WSH)
(955) NEW YORK-NL (36-51) at (956) ATLANTA (50-35)
Trend: NYM is 6-16 (-9.58 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (-105 at ATL)
(959) MILWAUKEE (53-32) at (960) ARIZONA (43-43)
Trend: AZ is 12-24 (-8.96 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): ARIZONA (+124 vs MIL)
(961) SAN DIEGO (43-43) at (962) LOS ANGELES-NL (57-31)
Trend: Under the total is 30-22 (+5.80 units) in SD night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SD-LAD (o/u at 8)
(963) MINNESOTA (42-46) at (964) NEW YORK-AL (48-38)
Trend: Over the total is 32-13-5 (+17.70 units) in MIN night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-NYY (o/u at 10)
Trend: Gerrit Cole’s teams are 36-8 (+17.79 units) when he starts vs AL Central opponents in the last 6+ seasons
Trend: Gerrit Cole’s teams are 28-8 (+5.65 units) when he starts at home vs opponents with a losing record in the last 6+ seasons
Trends Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-187 vs MIN)
(965) CHICAGO-AL (45-41) at (966) CLEVELAND (46-42)
Trend: Over the total is 30-16-1 (+12.40 units) in CWS night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CWS-CLE (o/u at 8)
(967) TAMPA BAY (51-33) at (968) HOUSTON (43-46)
Trend: TB is 32-17 (+18.12 units) on the run line in night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-1.5 at HOU)
(969) BOSTON (37-48) at (970) LOS ANGELES-AL (36-52)
Trend: Under the total is 29-19-3 (+8.10 units) in BOS night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-LAA (o/u at 7.5)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #1: Toronto at Seattle, Fri 7/3-Sun 7/5
Trend: ROAD TEAMS are on a 12-5 (70.6%, +8.62 units) surge in SEA-TOR head-to-head series
– The ROI on this trend is 50.7%
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-126 at SEA)
Series #6: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland, Thu 7/2-Sun 7/5
Trend: Under the total is 20-9 (69%, +10.04 units) in the last 29 games between the White Sox and Guardians in Cleveland
– The ROI on this trend is 34.6%
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CWS-CLE (o/u at 8)
Series #17: San Francisco at Colorado, Fri 7/3-Sun 7/5
Trend: COLORADO is 11-38 (22.4%, -21.79 units) in their last 49 games vs. San Francisco
– The ROI on this trend is -44.5%
Trend Match (FADE): COLORADO (+129 vs SF)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% three-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON, NY YANKEES, LA DODGERS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Match (CONSIDER): SEATTLE
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last three seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 300-89 (77.1%) for +40 units and an ROI of 10.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider the risk when backing.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, MIAMI
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
ARIZONA
Letdown after series vs. SAN FRANCISCO: 8-20 (28.6%) -12.69 units, ROI: -45.3%
Trend Match (FADE): ARIZONA (+124 vs MIL)
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