WNBA Picks
Phoenix came through big for us last night in a game where I thought the line was an extreme overreaction to Seattle’s recent play, and that showed as the Mercury handled the Storm by 23 points to cash an easy -4 for us. They did fail to go over the total, though, so we split that game. If you played the Washington lean, they also won and covered as underdogs so it was a solid night for TSI. We’ve got two games Friday night, one of which I’ll be attending in person, so let’s get to the projections.
Las Vegas Aces (-8.5) vs. Chicago Sky, O/U 182.5
A’ja Wilson is the big story here; she missed the Commissioner’s Cup championship on Tuesday due to her injured ankle, and she’s officially questionable for tonight’s game. As I said, I’ll be attending this game so I certainly hope she plays. TSI projects Vegas -15 with a total of 181 in this game with Wilson in the lineup, and if she doesn’t play I’d probably adjust that to about -10 and 179. The Aces have been playing about 4.5 points better over their last five games than their season average (not including Tuesday’s game without A’ja). The weird thing with Vegas is that they’ve typically played better away from home and also better against playoff teams, which Chicago is not. The neutralizer to that, though, is that Chicago has been nine points worse on the road than at home, but they have been playing much better over their last five. But in their last five road games, they’ve lost by an average score of 92-79. I’m going to back the Aces at home here in hopes of rooting them on to a win + cover from court side.
Bet: Aces -8.5 (Play to -9.5 without Wilson, play to -13 with Wilson)
New York Liberty (+2.5) vs. Minnesota Lynx, O/U 173.5
New York is fresh off of its Commissioner’s Cup title and will now host Olivia Miles and the Lynx at Barclays Center. Prior to winning the Cup on Tuesday, the Liberty were actually playing about five points worse over their last five games than their season average, while Minnesota’s last five average was about four points lower than its season average, thanks to an inexplicable loss and ensuing close win against the Mystics in back-to-back games. The Liberty have been similar at home and on the road, while Minnesota has been 1.5 points better on the road this year. New York has also not played nearly as well against playoff teams, whereas Minnesota has actually been about a point better against playoff-caliber teams. TSI projects New York -3.5 here with a total of 168, but frankly I don’t fully trust New York against top teams right now (yes, I know they just beat Vegas but A’ja Wilson didn’t play), as they’ve been outscored by an average of 83-82 against such teams this year. I also don’t want to play the Under because both teams are capable of going nuclear from 3, so I’m just going to pass on this one altogether.
For all of my WNBA picks, including prop bets and live plays, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex and turn your notifications on to get real-time updates from me on all things WNBA.
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