Player props have become one of baseball’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value well beyond the moneyline, run line, or game total. Each day, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board — from strikeouts and hits to total bases and pitcher outs recorded — using matchup data, recent form, and betting trends to identify edges. Keep reading for the top MLB player prop picks for July 30. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts will be all over the MLB, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
MORE: Check out the VSiN Pro Picks page for more bets from our talented hosts and analysts!
Thursday Player Prop Best Bets
Below you’ll find my official plays on the player prop market for Thursday. These are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record. I’ll write three up per day, but I’ll add additional ones in an “Additional Best Bets” section. I go lighter on baseball than I do other sports. My MLB units are 50% of what my normal units are.
Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-131) vs. Cardinals
Cubs at Cardinals – 2:15 pm ET
Crow-Armstrong is averaging 2.5 HRR per game over the last 30 games, and he’s averaging 2.4 HRR per game against righties this season. So, while today’s game will be played at pitcher-friendly Busch Stadium, it’s hard not to like him to come through at the plate. Crow-Armstrong hasn’t had much success against Andre Pallante in his career, as he is 1 for 10 with no RBIs against him. However, I just don’t buy into that small sample. Pallante is a contact pitcher, capable of inducing grounders. But Crow-Armstrong should get to him eventually. That said, I’ll take the discounted price here over grabbing some of the rougher prices on the Cubs that have hit Pallante hard.
Nolan McLean Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+105) vs. Marlins
Marlins at Mets – 7:10 pm ET
The Marlins haven’t been a high-K team throughout the course of the season, but they have a 25.1% strikeout rate in their last 10 games against righty starters. That said, McLean is getting Miami at the right time. The stud righty comes into this one having recorded seven strikeouts in five consecutive starts, and it’s hard to envision the streak ending here. He has nasty stuff, he’s dialed in, and he’s facing one of the coldest teams in baseball.
Heliot Ramos Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-115) vs. Padres
Giants at Padres – 9:40 pm ET
Ramos has had at least two HRR in each of his last five games against southpaws, and he had eight of them last night. Ramos went 4 for 5 with a run scored and three RBIs against Milwaukee, and I like him to stay hot against San Diego. JP Sears, who has struggled in limited action this season, will be on the mound for the Padres, making this a pretty strong matchup for the Giants — even in a pitcher-friendly park.
Additional Picks
Ryan Weathers Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+124) vs. White Sox
Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105) vs. Reds
Noteworthy OptaAI Player Prop Edges
Check out the BRAND NEW OptaAI Player Props MLB pages for more of these! VSiN Pro subscribers can find 50+ player prop ideas on a daily basis! We’ll list the top edges in some of the biggest markets below, but there will always be a lot more to uncover on the pages themselves.
Brett Baty Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-120) vs. Marlins
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him going for 1.62 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -403 — a +25.6% edge to the Over.
Austin Wells Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-118) vs. White Sox
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.52 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -356 — a +24.0% edge to the Over.
Jared Young Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-145) vs. Marlins
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.76 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -478 — a +23.5% edge to the Over.
