Today we have a smaller than usual MLB slate on tap with only 10 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
Become a VSiN Pro subscriber today and get a full year for just $199 PLUS a copy of The NFL Sharp Betting Playbook by Josh Appelbaum >> Go here and use promo code BOOK to sign up.
2:10 p.m. ET: New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox (-115, 7.5)
This is the final game of a four-game series.
The Yankees (61-47) took the first two games, winning the series opener 9-5 as -145 road favorites and then winning the second game 3-2 as -120 road favorites. Then the White Sox (56-51) bounced back with a 6-5 win in extras yesterday, coming through as +125 home dogs.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Yankees hand the ball to lefty Ryan Weathers (4-7, 4.25 ERA) and the White Sox go with righty Sean Burke (7-5, 3.19 ERA).
This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with some shops opening New York as a short -115 road favorite and Chicago a -105 home dog.
The public is happy to back the Yankees at a cheap price. However, despite New York receiving 59% of moneyline bets at DraftKings we’ve seen the line completely flip in favor of the White Sox, pushing Chicago to a -115 home favorite. This indicates sharp reverse line movement on the Southsiders to earn a win and split the series.
At DraftKings, Chicago is receiving only 41% of moneyline bets but 78% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the White Sox are taking in 85% of moneyline bets and a whopping 99% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” split in favor of the home team.
When both teams are above .500, as is the case here, the team receiving line movement in their favor has gone 150-93 (62%) with a 12% ROI this season. Home favorites priced -140 or less who missed the playoffs the previous season, like Chicago here, are 195-144 (58%) with a 4% ROI this season.
Chicago is 8-2 in Burke’s last ten starts. He has posted a 1.40 ERA in four July starts, allowing only 4 earned runs in 25.2 innings pitched. He has a 2.70 ERA in day games compared to 3.48 in night games.
Meanwhile, Weathers has posted a 5.03 ERA in four July starts, giving up 11 earned runs in 19.2 innings pitched.
The White Sox are 33-21 at home, the 5th best home record in MLB.
9:40 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres (-160, 8.5)
The Giants (46-62) just took two of three against the Brewers, dominating yesterday’s series finale 16-3 as a -110 home pick’em. On the other hand, the Padres (55-53) just swept the Rockies in a brief two-game series, winning yesterday’s finale 3-1 as -190 home favorites.
In tonight’s series finale, the Giants send out lefty Robbie Ray (9-6, 3.16 ERA) and the Padres tap fellow southpaw JP Sears (3-3, 3.86 ERA).
This line opened with San Diego listed as a -130 home favorite and San Francisco a +110 road dog.
Sharps have gotten down hard on the Padres laying modest chalk at home, steaming San Diego up from -130 to -160.
At DraftKings, the Padres are taking in 73% of moneyline bets and 88% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, San Diego is receiving over 90% of moneyline bets and dollars. Both books are showing a heavy one-way bet discrepancy in favor of the home chalk.
The Padres are 30-19 (61%) with a 16% ROI against teams with below .500 records, the 3rd best record vs losing teams in MLB.
Sears has posted a 2.04 ERA in four July appearances, allowing inly 4 earned runs in 17.2 innings pitched.
Meanwhile, Ray has posted a 4.35 ERA on the road compared to 2.22 at home.
The Padres also have the better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.70 (6th best in MLB) compared to 4.37 (21st) for the Giants.
San Diego is 29-24 at home. San Francisco is 20-35 on the road, the 4th worst road record in MLB.
9:40 p.m. ET: Boston Red Sox (-185, 10) at Athletics
The Red Sox (56-51) have taken two of the first three games in this four-game series, winning 4-2 in extras yesterday as -155 road favorites.
In tonight’s series finale, the Red Sox send out righty Sonny Gray (12-2, 2.78 ERA) and the Athletics start righty Mason Barnett (1-1, 4.74 ERA).
This line opened with Boston listed as -165 road favorite and the Athletics a +145 home dog.
Sharps aren’t scared off by the pricey chalk and have laid the wood with the Red Sox, pushing Boston up from -165 to -185.
At DraftKings, the Red Sox are taking in over 90% of moneyline bets and dollars. At Circa, Boston is receiving 86% of moneyline bets and over 95% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a one-way Pro and Joe bet discrepancy in favor of the road chalk.
Non-division road favorites off a win receiving line movement in their favor, like the Red Sox here, are 79-50 (61%) with a 5% ROI this season.
Gray is 8-1 with a 2.11 ERA in night games. On the other hand, Barnett has posted a 10.61 ERA in five July appearances, allowing 11 earned runs in 9.1 innings pitched.
Boston has a sizable edge in the bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.00 (best in MLB) compared to 5.52 for the Athletics (worst in MLB).
The Red Sox are 31-22 on the road (5th best in MLB) while the Athletics are 17-30 at home (worst in MLB).
