WNBA Picks
We easily cashed our lone bet of the night Wednesday, with the Wings and Dream staying well under the number for us. Thursday’s slate offers three games, featuring the Chicago Sky hosting the Connecticut Sun, the Toronto Tempo hosting the Minnesota Lynx (again), and the New York Liberty and the Las Vegas Aces facing off in Las Vegas. Here are the TSI projects for each game.
Chicago Sky (-4.5) vs Connecticut Sun, O/U 177.5
Chicago has been playing seven points above its season average over the last three games, and has been a ridiculous eight points better at home this season, averaging nine more points per game in Chicago. Connecticut is on a three-game skid and is playing nine points below its season average in that span. These teams have split the two matchups so far this season by an average score of 86-74 in favor of Connecticut. TSI projects Chicago -5.5 with a total of 172, and given that Connecticut is six points worse on the road, I like Chicago here to cover the number at home.
Bet: Sky -4.5 (play to -5)
Toronto Tempo (+11.5) vs Minnesota Lynx, O/U 188.5
Minnesota was such a cash cow for us early in the year, but they’re now 0-9-1 ATS in their last ten games. Toronto is on a four-game losing streak and has been five points below their season average over the last three games, while Minnesota has won eight in a row but has still been four points worse than their season average. The Lynx have won this matchup twice this season, by an average score of 100-84. TSI projects Minnesota -10.5 with a total of 179.5, but the regression trends make the total around 189, so I don’t want to play the Under, so Toronto feels like the best bet here.
Bet: Tempo +11.5 (Play to +11)
Las Vegas Aces (-5.5) vs New York Liberty, O/U 181.5
The Aces have been playing much better ball of late, performing 5.5 points above their season average over the last three games, but they’re still six points worse at home for some crazy reason. New York, on the other hand, has been two points below their plummeting season average, and has been about two points worse on the road and is just 2-7-1 ATS in their last ten games. However, the Liberty have won both matchups this season by an average of 90-81. TSI projects Aces -3.5 with a total of 178.5, and all signs point to a Liberty cover here, so that’s where I’m going for our last bet of the night.
Bet: Liberty +5.5 (Play to +4.5)
For all of my WNBA picks, including prop bets and live plays, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex and turn your notifications on to get real-time updates from me on all things WNBA.
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