Player props have become one of baseball’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value well beyond the moneyline, run line, or game total. Each day, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board — from strikeouts and hits to total bases and pitcher outs recorded — using matchup data, recent form, and betting trends to identify edges. Keep reading for the top MLB player prop picks for July 6. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts will be all over the MLB, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
MORE: Check out the VSiN Pro Picks page for more bets from our talented hosts and analysts!
Monday Player Prop Best Bets
Below you’ll find my official plays on the player prop market for Monday. These are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record. I’ll write three up per day, but I’ll add additional ones in an “Additional Best Bets” section. I go lighter on baseball than I do other sports. My MLB units are 50% of what my normal units are.
Shane Drohan Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+128) vs. Cardinals
Brewers at Cardinals – 7:45 pm ET
The Cardinals are pretty good about avoiding strikeouts, as they have a solid 17.4% strikeout rate against lefties this season. However, Drohan comes into this start having had at least five strikeouts in four of his last six outings. That said, while this might not be a great matchup for the southpaw, we’re getting a low total and favorable plus-money odds. Drohan is also pitching in a poor environment for hitters, so he should be able to build some confidence and work himself somewhat deep into this game.
Walker Buehler Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-155) vs. Diamondbacks
Diamondbacks at Padres – 9:40 pm ET
It’s juicy to go Over on Buehler’s strikeout total, but I can’t help myself this evening. The righty has had at least four strikeouts in eight of his last nine starts, and he’s looking confident on the mound for the first time in years. Well, in tonight’s meeting with the Diamondbacks, I’m expecting another rock-solid outing. Arizona has some incredible numbers when it comes to making contact and avoiding Ks this year, but Buehler has been awesome at utilizing smoke and mirrors to get hitters off balance. I’ll take my chances with him going Over a very low number.
Rafael Devers Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+105) vs. Blue Jays
Blue Jays at Giants – 9:45 pm ET
Devers is coming off a great series in Colorado. The lefty slugger has simply been scorching hot at the plate, and that’s especially true against righties. Devers is averaging 3.1 HRR per game against righties, going Over his HRR total in 15 of the last 19 games. Well, it won’t be as easy for Devers to hit bombs in San Francisco, so he might be missing the recent trip to Coors. But I’ll take a shot on him to keep it going here. Kevin Gausman hasn’t been good enough this year to scare me off.
Additional Picks
Trea Turner Over 1.5 Total Bases (-103) vs. Royals
Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases (-131) vs. Nationals
Tyler Freeman Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+101) vs. Dodgers
Noteworthy OptaAI Player Prop Edges
Check out the BRAND NEW OptaAI Player Props MLB pages for more of these! VSiN Pro subscribers can find 50+ player prop ideas on a daily basis! We’ll list the top edges in some of the biggest markets below, but there will always be a lot more to uncover on the pages themselves.
Austin Wells Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-115) vs. Rays
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him going for 1.53 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -362 — a +24.9% edge to the Over.
Braxton Fulford Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-133) vs. Dodgers
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.63 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -408 — a +23.2% edge to the Over.
Michael Massey Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-136) vs. Phillies
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.43 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -317 — a +18.4% edge to the Over.
