WNBA Picks
We’re back with some WNBA action today after taking the weekend off. We’ve got three games on deck this evening featuring the Minnesota Lynx hosting the Connecticut Sun, the LA Sparks hosting the Seattle Storm, and the Washington Mystics hosting the Golden State Valkyries. Injuries are really starting to become a factor this season, as we saw with both Caitlin Clark and A’ja Wilson missing games over the weekend, and now Lynx star Olivia Miles is questionable today. Here are the TSI projections for Monday’s slate:
Minnesota Lynx (-13.5) vs Connecticut Sun, O/U 165.5
Minnesota had seemingly hit a bit of a lull lately anyway, playing about 7.5 points worse than their season average, but now Olivia Miles is questionable with an injury, so that makes the situation more tenuous; however, they’re playing Connecticut, who’s the worst team in the league overall and is 7.5 points worse on the road than they are at home. TSI projects Minnesota -18 with a total of 166.5. Even if we assume Miles doesn’t play, I still think Minnesota can cover this number against a putrid road team in the Sun, but the timing of when to bet is really the question here. If you bet -13.5 now and Miles plays, this line closes in the high teens. If she gets ruled out, the market likely overreacts, and the line goes to maybe 10. I’d play 13.5 if I absolutely had to right now, but I think waiting and assuming Miles doesn’t play is probably the move.
Bet: Lynx -13.5 or better
LA Sparks (-3.5) vs Seattle Storm, O/U 174.5
LA has been disappointing relative to expectations this season, and that’s only gotten worse with injuries to Cameron Brink and Kelsey Plum. The Sparks have been 8.5 points worse than their season average over the last five games, allowing 102 points per game in that span. Seattle is playing some of their best ball lately, surging about six points from their season average. TSI projects Sparks -6 with a total of 176.5. I simply don’t trust either of these teams. I’m always looking to fade Seattle on the road, but LA has been so bad that I don’t feel good about that, and I generally love Sparks’ overs, but I don’t trust the Seattle offense to actually take advantage of the terrible Sparks defense. I’m going to pass.
Washington Mystics (+5.5) vs Golden State Valkyries, O/U 156.5
Washington has been playing about 1.5 points better than its season average over the last five games, but consistency has definitely been a problem for this young team. They’ve been 5.5 points better at home, so that’s been one relatively consistent theme for them this season. Golden State has been really solid all year, but they have been four points worse on the road than at home, though still above league average. TSI projects Valkyries -2.5 with a total of 161 in this game. I tend to lean Mystics, particularly at home. The schedule is also much more favorable for Washington in this spot, with multiple days between games, while Golden State is in the midst of a five-game road trip and just played in Atlanta Saturday and will travel to Toronto to play Wednesday.
Bet: Mystics +5.5 (Play to +4.5)
For all of my WNBA picks, including prop bets and live plays, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex and turn your notifications on to get real-time updates from me on all things WNBA.
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