Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, July 6, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: Kevin Gausman’s teams are a perfect 14-0 (+14.40 units) when he starts on the road vs NL West opponents within -300 to +125 line range in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-114 at SF)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 397-446 but for +90.02 units and an ROI of 10.7% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (+109 at ATL)
Since the start of the 2023 regular season, when a better SM bullpen team is favored by -190 or higher, but the starting pitcher difference is less than 20 in the ratings, these big favorites have gone 264-175, but for -128.81 units (ROI: -29.3%).
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-232 vs COL)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. These teams have had a couple tough weeks lately, sitting at 141-116 for -9.76 units and an ROI of -3.8% on the season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-108 at TB), HOUSTON (-101 at WSH)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 31-27 for –4.62 units (ROI -8%).
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-205 at KC)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 47-85 for -41.71 units and an ROI of -31.6%!
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-101 at WSH)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 98-124 for +3.25 units. This is lasting longer than I would expect, however, it has lost about 6.70 units the last four weeks and is headed in its usual direction.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (-120 vs HOU), COLORADO (+188 at LAD)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record is 45-25 for -10.33 units, ROI -14.8%, as it is now acting like its usual self.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-205 at KC)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 32-19 but for -14.34 units so far.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): LA DODGERS (-232 vs COL)
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there’s was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. The 2026 teams are off to a 22-15 start for -11.45 units, and an ROI of -30.9%.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-232 vs COL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick em’). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounceback in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 174-228 for -34.85 units. This ROI of -8.7% is still advantageous to blind wagering, just not what we’ve come to expect at all.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-108 at TB), HOUSTON (-101 at WSH)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -111 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 148-96 for +33.82 units, an ROI of +13.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-111 at STL), SAN DIEGO (-124 vs AZ), TORONTO (-114 at SF)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 242-179 for +23.69 units and an ROI of 5.6% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-111 at STL), TORONTO (-114 at SF)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 397-446 but for +90.02 units and an ROI of 10.7% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (+109 at ATL)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 427-362 but for -84.08 units and an ROI of -10.7% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY (-112 vs NYY), SAN DIEGO (-124 vs AZ)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 446-399 record for +41.06 units and an ROI of 4.9% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR COLORADO at LAD (+188 CURRENTLY)
MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored four or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 706-820 record but for +17.22 units and an ROI of 1.1% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-205 at KC)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2170-2743 (44.2%) for -267.48 units and an ROI of -5.4% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-205 at KC), NY YANKEES (-108 at TB), HOUSTON (-101 at WSH), ARIZONA (+103 at SD), TORONTO (-114 at SF)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 649-544 (54.4%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +17.55 units, for an ROI of 1.5%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (-112 vs NYY), LA DODGERS (-232 vs COL)
Hitting a lot of home runs has carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 390-196 (66.6%) for +55.76 units and an ROI of 9.5%!
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR SAN FRANCISCO vs TOR (-105 CURRENTLY)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY (next couple tomorrow, July 7)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: HOUSTON -101 (+22 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: LA DODGERS -232 (+17 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: MIL-STL OVER 8 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: NYM-ATL UNDER 9 (-0.7), AZ-SD UNDER 8.5 (-0.7), NYY-TB UNDER 7.5 (-0.5), COL-LAD UNDER 9.5 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(901) NEW YORK-NL (37-53) at (902) ATLANTA (52-36)
Trend: Under the total is 14-4 (+9.60 units) in Freddy Peralta’s last 18 road starts versus NL opponents within line range of -300 to +112 since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYM-ATL (o/u at 9)
Trend: NYM is 7-18 (-10.57 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (+109 at ATL)
(903) MILWAUKEE (55-33) at (904) ST LOUIS (47-40)
Trend: STL is 15-8 (+8.12 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (-108 vs MIL)
(905) ARIZONA (44-45) at (906) SAN DIEGO (44-45)
Trend: AZ is 13-26 (-9.58 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): ARIZONA (+103 at SD)
Trend: Walker Buehler’s teams are 10-1 (+8.20 units) in his last 11 starts vs Arizona (1.98 ERA across 14 total appearances vs AZ)
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-124 vs AZ)
(907) COLORADO (37-54) at (908) LOS ANGELES-NL (59-32)
Trend: Under the total is 17-7-3 (+9.30 units) when Kyle Freeland starts vs LAD in his career
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): COL-LAD (o/u at 10)
Trend: COL is 13-36 (-13.90 units) on the road last few seasons with starter Kyle Freeland
Trend Match (FADE): COLORADO (+188 at LAD)
(909) NEW YORK-AL (49-40) at (910) TAMPA BAY (52-35)
Trend: TB is 29-14 (+20.12 units) on the run line at home this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (+1.5 vs NYY)
(911) PHILADELPHIA (50-40) at (912) KANSAS CITY (36-54)
Trend: PHI is 39-8 (+24.11 units) in favorite line range of -148 or higher with starter Cristopher Sanchez since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-205 at KC)
Trend: KC is 16-28 (-9.02 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (+168 vs PHI)
(913) HOUSTON (45-47) at (914) WASHINGTON (46-45)
Trend: Miles Mikolas’ teams are 3-8 (-6.77 units) when he starts vs AL West opponents in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-120 vs HOU)
(915) TORONTO (42-48) at (916) SAN FRANCISCO (37-52)
Trend: Kevin Gausman’s teams are a perfect 14-0 (+14.40 units) when he starts on the road vs NL West opponents within -300 to +125 line range in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-114 at SF)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in a MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-232 vs COL)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): NY METS (+109 at ATL), SAN FRANCISCO (-105 vs TOR)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: For as good as Majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 156-81 (65.8%) for -37.06 units and an ROI of -15.6%. This has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-205 at KC)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-205 at KC), HOUSTON (-101 at WSH), SAN FRANCISCO (-105 vs TOR)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NYM-ATL (o/u at 9)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
SAN DIEGO
Letdown after series vs. LA DODGERS: 19-22 (46.3%) -11.75 units, ROI: -28.7%
Trend Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (-124 vs AZ)
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