Player props have become one of baseball’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value well beyond the moneyline, run line, or game total. Each day, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board — from strikeouts and hits to total bases and pitcher outs recorded — using matchup data, recent form, and betting trends to identify edges. Keep reading for the top MLB player prop picks for May 15. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts will be all over the MLB, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
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Friday Player Prop Best Bets
Below you’ll find my official plays on the player prop market for Friday. These are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record. I’ll write three up per day, but I’ll add additional ones in an “Additional Best Bets” section. I go lighter on baseball than I do other sports. My MLB units are 50% of what my normal units are.
Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+105) vs. White Sox
Cubs at White Sox – 7:40 pm ET
Crow-Armstrong hasn’t had the greatest season at the plate, but I do think he’s a threat to do some damage tonight. Sean Burke will be on the hill for the White Sox this evening, meaning Crow-Armstrong gets his preferred split of facing a right-handed starter. Well, this season, that hasn’t amounted to anything. The 24-year-old is batting .218 with an OPS of .655 against righties this year, which is quite miserable. However, he’s clearly due for some positive regression. Last year, Crow-Armstrong batted .271 with an OPS of .838 against righties. It’s only a matter of time before he starts to produce in these spots, and I like him at plus-money odds to go Over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs (HRR) tonight. Crow-Armstrong is actually 3 for 5 with six total bases against Burke, so he has had success in this matchup before.
JJ Wetherholt Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-120) vs. Royals
Royals at Cardinals – 8:15 pm ET
Wetherholt has done some serious damage against righties lately, and he’ll be facing one in Michael Wacha tonight. Wetherholt has gone Over 1.5 HRR in nine of his last 14 games against right-handed starters, averaging 2.4 HRR per game in those contests. Of course, Wacha’s numbers are tremendous this year. Through eight starts, he’s 4-2 with a 2.63 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP. However, Wacha shouldn’t be able to keep this up. And this feels like a natural spot for him to struggle, with St. Louis being a top-10 team when it comes to wRC+ (104) and having several hitters that thrive against righties. Well, if the Cardinals do have a good offensive game tonight, expect Wetherholt to be right in the thick of things.
Shohei Ohtani Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+105) vs. Angels
Dodgers at Angels – 9:40 pm ET
Ohtani has been absolutely insane on the mound this year, as he has a 0.82 ERA and has struck out 50 batters in 44.0 inning this season. However, Ohtani hasn’t quite gotten himself going at the plate. After batting .282 with 55 homers and 102 RBIs last year, Ohtani is batting just .240 and he has only seven homers and 17 RBIs this year. Still, we know how dangerous Ohtani is at the plate, so backing him over the next few weeks could end up being profitable. And I really do like him this evening. Ohtani will be going up against a righty in Jack Kochanowicz, who is absolutely beatable. Ohtani will also be doing so in the stadium he played six seasons in, so he’ll be plenty comfortable with his surroundings. I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes yard here, but I’ll take the plus-money odds on him to go Over 2.5 HRR instead.
Additional Best Bets
Aaron Nola Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+108) vs. Pirates
Adley Rutschman Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-140) vs. Nationals
Jesus Sanchez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+134) vs. Tigers
Joe Ryan Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-103) vs. Brewers
Jesse Scholtens Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-137 – 1.5 units) & Alt Strikeouts 5+ (+170 – 0.5 units) vs. Marlins
Jack Leiter Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (+100) vs. Astros
Mickey Moniak Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-105) vs. Diamondbacks
Nick Kurtz Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-155) vs. Giants
Noteworthy OptaAI Player Prop Edges
Check out the BRAND NEW OptaAI Player Props MLB pages for more of these! VSiN Pro subscribers can find 50+ player prop ideas on a daily basis! We’ll list the top edges in some of the biggest markets below, but there will always be a lot more to uncover on the pages themselves.
Zack Littell Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+123) vs. Orioles
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him going for 5.01 strikeouts, suggesting these odds should be -279 — a +28.7% edge to the Over.
Luke Raley Over 1.5 Total Bases (+201) vs. Padres
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.89 total bases, suggesting these odds should be -128 — a +23.0% edge to the Over.
MJ Melendez Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-114) vs. Yankees
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.42 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -312 — a +22.4% edge to the Over.
