WNBA Picks
After a solid 2-1 night, we’re back with a four-game slate to handicap for Friday night’s WNBA action. The Washington Mystics will visit the Indiana Fever, the Connecticut Sun will host the Aces in a rematch of the 30-point blowout by the Aces earlier this week, the Phoenix Mercury host the surprisingly undefeated Chicago Sky, and the LA Sparks look to get their first win against the Toronto Tempo. Here are Friday’s projections from the T Shoe Index.
Indiana Fever (-8) vs Washington Mystics, O/U 169.5
The Fever got in the win column against the Sparks earlier this week and will look to continue the momentum against the young and hungry Mystics, who sit at 1-1 so far this season. Indiana is currently scoring 2.3 points per game above opponents’ defensive averages, while allowing a massive 9 points above opponents’ averages. Washington is scoring 1.3 points below opponents’ averages while holding teams 11 points under their averages. Keep in mind, these on-court stats are on incredibly small sample sizes in this young season. TSI projects Fever -10 with a total of 172. No official play here, but I’d lean Over in this one.
Lean: Over 169.5
Connecticut Sun (+15) vs Las Vegas Aces, O/U 171
As mentioned, Vegas blew out this Sun squad without Brittney Griner earlier in the week, but Griner is expected back Friday, for what that’s worth. The Aces are scoring 2 points below opponents’ defensive averages while allowing 2 points above opponents’ scoring averages. Connecticut, meanwhile, has dreadfully scored 9 points below opponents’ averages and allow 8 points above teams’ offensive averages. TSI projects Aces -13 with a total of 170. Frankly, knowing how the data works, the Phoenix games are currently suppressing Vegas’ numbers, and Connecticut is awful, so I’m going to pass on this game.
Phoenix Mercury (-3.5) vs Chicago Sky, O/U 166.5
Phoenix has lost two straight since killing Vegas in the opener, while Chicago has started off 2-0 with their revamped roster. Phoenix is scoring 5.5 points above opponents’ averages while holding teams to 4.5 points below average; meanwhile, Chicago has played much lower-scoring games, scoring 3.5 points below and allowing 12.5 points below opponents’ averages. TSI projects Phoenix -5.5 with a total of 165.5. I’m still trying to figure out this Phoenix team, so we’ll call this one a lean.
Lean: Mercury -3.5
Los Angeles Sparks (-7.5) vs Toronto Tempo, O/U 170
LA is quickly becoming one of the biggest mysteries in the league this season. They acquired Nneka Ogwumike and got Cameron Brink back from injury, yet have played her just 8 and 19 minutes in their first two games. Toronto is coming off a win against Seattle, and getting this one would be a big boost for the expansion team, while delivering a blow to the morale of LA for a game in May. LA’s been awful on both sides, scoring 9.5 points below opponents’ averages while allowing 3.5 points above, while Toronto scores 5 points below teams’ defensive averages but is holding teams to 8 points below their usual outputs. TSI projects LA -9 with a total of 171.5. Being so early in the season and 1.5 points being very little edge on a 9-point spread, I’m going to pass until I see Cameron Brink’s minutes normalize and LA return to what everyone thought they’d be in the preseason (or not).
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