Today we wrap up the work week with a loaded 15 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7:10 p.m. ET: Miami Marlins at Tampa Bay Rays (-120, 8)
The Marlins (20-24) just dropped two of three against the Twins, losing the series finale 9-1 yesterday as -115 road favorites. On the other hand, the Rays (28-14) just took two of three against the Blue Jays but failed to complete the sweep, losing the series finale 5-3 in extra innings as +125 road dogs.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Marlins hand the ball to righty Janson Junk (2-3, 3.25 ERA) and the Rays counter with fellow righty Jesse Scholtens (3-2, 3.29 ERA).
This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a -115 home favorite and Miami a -105 road dog.
Sharps have quietly sided with the Rays at a cheap chalk price, pushing Tampa Bay up from -115 to -120.
At Circa, the Rays are taking in 71% of moneyline bets and 80% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split and further evidence of big Vegas pro money in their favor.
Friday home favorites -150 or less who missed the postseason the previous year, like the Rays here, are 14-9 (61%) with an 8% ROI this season and 58-35 (62%) with a 10% ROI since 2025.
Tampa Bay also enjoys a “rest vs tired” advantage, as the Rays were off yesterday while the Marlins played in Minnesota and now must travel to Florida.
Rested favorites coming off a day off are 30-14 (68%) with a 12% ROI this season and 110-57 (66%) with a 5% ROI since 2025.
The Rays are 16-6 (73%) with a 29% ROI as a favorite this season, the 2nd best chalk team in MLB.
Tampa Bay is 14-4 at home. Miami is 6-12 on the road.
7:15 p.m. ET: New York Yankees (-155, 7) at New York Mets
The Yankees (27-17) just lost two of three against the Orioles, dropping the series finale 7-0 as -165 road favorites. Meanwhile, the Mets (18-25) just swept the Tigers, winning the series finale 9-4 as -165 home favorites.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Yankees send out righty Cam Schlitter (5-1, 1.35 ERA) and the Mets turn to fellow righty Clay Holmes (4-3, 1.86 ERA).
This line opened with the Yankees listed as a -145 road favorite and the Mets a +125 home dog.
Sharps have laid the wood with the Bronx Bombers, pushing the Yankees up from -145 to -155.
At Circa, the Yankees are taking in only 31% of moneyline bets but a hefty 96% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in their favor from the desert sharps.
Pro money has also come down on the Yankees run-line (-1.5 at +120), as the Bronx Bombers are receiving 78% of spread bets and 88% of spread dollars at DraftKings.
Road favorites after getting shut out, like the Yankees here, are 151-84 (64%) with an 11% ROI since 2022.
The Yankees enjoy a “rest vs tired” advantage, as they were off day yesterday while the Mets played the Tigers.
The Bronx Bombers have the better bats, hitting .234 with a .330 OBP and 223 runs scored compared to the Mets hitting .226 with a .292 OBP and only 161 runs scored.
The Yankees offer correlative betting value as a favorite in a super low total game (7), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
Schlittler is 4-1 with a 0.86 ERA on the road this season.
7:15 p.m. ET: Boston Red Sox at Atlanta Braves (-155, 8)
The Red Sox (18-25) just dropped two of three against the Phillies, losing the series finale 3-1 as -120 home favorites. On the other hand, the Braves (30-14) just took two of three against the Cubs but failed to complete the sweep, losing the series finale 2-0 as -200 home favorites.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Red Sox go with lefty Connelly Early (3-2, 3.16 ERA) and the Braves tap righty Spencer Strider (1-0, 2.89 ERA).
This line opened with Atlanta listed as a -145 home favorite and Boston a +125 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Braves laying relatively modest chalk at home, driving Atlanta up from -145 to -155.
At Circa, the Braves are receiving 67% of moneyline bets and a lopsided 97% of moneyline dollars, a pronounced “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in their favor from the wiseguys in Vegas.
Sharp action has also come down on the Braves run-line (-1.5 at +135), as Atlanta is taking in 82% of spread bets and 91% of spread dollars at DraftKings.
Atlanta has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
When both teams are coming off a loss, as is the case here, the favorite is 29-19 (60%) with a 3% ROI this season.
Atlanta has a big edge at the plate, hitting .270 with a .447 slugging percentage and 237 runs scored compared to Boston hitting .235 with a .354 slugging percentage and only 161 runs scored.
The Braves are hitting .279 at home (2nd in MLB) and .266 against lefties (3rd).
Atlanta is 23-9 (72%) with a 21% ROI as a favorite this season, the best chalk team in MLB.
