Player props have become one of baseball’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value well beyond the moneyline, run line, or game total. Each day, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board — from strikeouts and hits to total bases and pitcher outs recorded — using matchup data, recent form, and betting trends to identify edges. Keep reading for the top MLB player prop picks for May 18. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts will be all over the MLB, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
MORE: Check out the VSiN Pro Picks page for more bets from our talented hosts and analysts!
Monday Player Prop Best Bets
Below you’ll find my official plays on the player prop market for Monday. These are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record. I’ll write three up per day, but I’ll add additional ones in an “Additional Best Bets” section. I go lighter on baseball than I do other sports. My MLB units are 50% of what my normal units are.
Ryan Weathers Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+110) vs. Blue Jays
Blue Jays at Yankees – 7:05 pm ET
The Blue Jays have the lowest strikeout rate (18.1%) this season, so this isn’t the perfect matchup for Weathers. However, I just don’t think the lefty should be available at plus-money odds to go Over a total like 5.5. This season, Weathers is averaging 6.8 strikeouts per game. He has also had at least seven strikeouts in four of his last six outings, and he even has a 10-strikeout performance to his name in a home start this season. I’m simply willing to take my chances with Weathers against a tough opponent. I’ll also note that the Jays had a strikeout rate of 18.6% against lefties last season. That’s still a very low mark, but it’s higher than what we’ve seen this year. Perhaps Weathers can do his part to get Toronto’s number up a little.
Ezequiel Tovar Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+111) vs. Rangers
Rangers at Rockies – 8:40 pm ET
Tovar really hasn’t had a good season for Colorado, as he’s batting .204 with one homer and 11 RBIs on the year. Many Rockies players have helped make the team pluckier than expected, but Tovar hasn’t been one of them — which is disappointing considering the contract he’s currently on. But I do expect Tovar to turn things around in the near future. Well, maybe he’ll begin that turnaround tonight. Last year, Tovar averaged 2.0 hits, runs, and RBIs (HRR) per game when playing at home against left-handed starters. That’s significant heading into tonight’s game, as the Rangers will be sending lefty MacKenzie Gore to the hill.
Michael King Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+124) vs. Dodgers
Dodgers at Padres – 9:40 pm ET
King has had an up-and-down year as a swing-and-miss guy, but it’s tempting to grab him at plus-money odds to reach the six-K mark. King has had four starts this season in which he has struck out at least six batters, and two of those four outings came in San Diego. Of course, King is going up against one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball — Los Angeles is No. 1 in MLB in wRC+ (120). But that’s part of the reason I actually like King tonight. Considering his track record, most bettors will probably be looking Under here. Well, it’s never a bad idea to go against the consensus. Plus, one of the sharpest books in the world (Pinnacle) is only offering this at +101. So, it feels like a good value to grab +124 where you can.
Additional Best Bets
Matt Olson Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-112) vs. Marlins
Alec Bohm Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-125) vs. Reds
Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-150) vs. Orioles
Jake Irvin Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-115) vs. Mets
Tatsuya Imai Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+124) vs. Twins
Brandon Sproat Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-150) vs. Cubs
Josh Jung Over 1.5 Total Bases (-120) vs. Rockies
Jeff McNeil Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+110) vs. Angels
Zac Gallen Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-152) vs. Giants
Noteworthy OptaAI Player Prop Edges
Check out the BRAND NEW OptaAI Player Props MLB pages for more of these! VSiN Pro subscribers can find 50+ player prop ideas on a daily basis! We’ll list the top edges in some of the biggest markets below, but there will always be a lot more to uncover on the pages themselves.
Tatsuya Imai Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+107) vs. Twins
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him going for 7.25 strikeouts, suggesting these odds should be -560 — a +36.5% edge to the Over.
Davis Schneider Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-129) vs. Yankees
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.70 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -445 — a +25.3% edge to the Over.
Carlos Cortes Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+106) vs. Angels
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 2.37 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -218 — a +20.0% edge to the Over.
