Today we kick off a new week with a loaded 14 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:40 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays (-140, 7.5)
The Orioles (21-26) just dropped two of three against the Nationals but avoided the sweep, winning yesterday’s series finale 7-3 as -120 road favorites. On the other hand, the Rays (30-15) just took two of three against the Marlins, winning 6-3 yesterday as -150 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Orioles send out lefty Trevor Rogers (2-4, 5.77 ERA) and the Rays turn to fellow southpaw Shane McClanahan (4-2, 2.27 ERA).
This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a -135 home favorite and Baltimore a +115 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Rays laying modest chalk at home, driving Tampa Bay up from -135 to -140, with some shops touching -145.
At DraftKings, the Rays are taking in 82% of moneyline bets and 87% of moneyline dollars, a one-way “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe bet split in their favor.
When both teams are coming off a win, as is the case here, the home favorite priced -150 or less is 91-66 (58%) with a 4% ROI since 2024. Monday home teams who missed the playoffs the previous season with line movement in their favor facing an opponent who also missed the playoffs the previous season are 51-33 (61%) with a 6% ROI since 2024.
Tampa Bay has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Rays are 16-5 at home and 17-8 in night games. The Orioles are 9-14 on the road and 10-13 in night games.
McClanahan has a 0.00 ERA in three May starts (all wins), allowing zero earned runs in 16.2 innings pitched. He is 3-0 with a 0.87 ERA at home.
On the other hand, Rogers has a 10.57 ERA in his last four starts (all losses), allowing 18 earned runs in only 15.1 innings pitched
7:40 p.m. ET: Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins (-115, 9.5)
The Astros (18-29) just took two of three against the Rangers but failed to complete the sweep, losing yesterday’s series finale 8-0 as +105 home dogs. Conversely, the Twins (21-26) just dropped two of three against the Brewers but avoided the sweep, winning 5-4 yesterday as +115 home dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Astros start righty Tatsuya Imai (1-1, 9.24 ERA) and the Twins rebuttal with lefty Kendry Rojas (1-0, 2.45 ERA).
This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed around -110 odds.
Sharps have subtly sided with the home team, as the Twins have moved up from a -110 home pick’em to a -115 home favorite.
At DraftKings, Minnesota is taking in 63% of moneyline bets and 73% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Minnesota is receiving more than 90% of moneyline bets and dollars. Both books are showing a one-way Pro and Joe bet split in favor of the Twins earning a series opening victory at home.
Monday home teams who missed the playoffs the previous season with line movement in their favor facing an opponent who also missed the playoffs the previous season are 51-33 (61%) with a 6% ROI since 2024.
Houston is 7-15 on the road, the 4th worst road record in MLB.
The Astros also have the worst bullpen in MLB, posting an ERA of 5.78.
9:40 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks (-135, 9)
The Giants (20-27) just took two of three against the Athletics, winning yesterday’s series finale 10-1 as +120 road dogs. Similarly, the Diamondbacks (22-23) just won two of three against the Rockies, winning 8-6 yesterday as -150 road favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Giants hand the ball to lefty Robbie Ray (3-5, 3.04 ERA) and the Diamondbacks go with righty Zac Gallen (1-4, 5.02 ERA).
This line opened with Arizona listed as a -130 home favorite and San Francisco a +110 road dog.
Sharps have quietly sided with the home chalk, pushing the Diamondbacks up from -130 to -135.
At Circa, Arizona is only taking in 50% of moneyline bets but a whopping 99% of moneyline dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split from the wiseguys in the desert.
When both teams are coming off a win, as is the case here, the home favorite priced -150 or less is 91-66 (58%) with a 4% ROI since 2024. Monday home teams who missed the playoffs the previous season with line movement in their favor facing an opponent who also missed the playoffs the previous season are 51-33 (61%) with a 6% ROI since 2024.
Arizona has the more productive bats, posting a .306 OBP, .393 slugging percentage and 198 runs scored compared to San Francisco posting a .292 OBP, .376 slugging percentage and 165 runs scored.
The Diamondbacks are hitting .266 against lefties, 3rd best in MLB.
Ray is 0-4 with a 4.50 ERA on the road compared to 3-1 with a 1.91 ERA at home. Meanwhile, Gallen is 1-1 with a 2.61 ERA at home compared to 0-3 with a 7.25 ERA on the road.
The Diamondbacks are 12-9 at home. The Giants are 10-15 on the road.
