The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, May 18, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Trend: LAD is 21-6 (+12.61 units) as a smaller favorite within -115 to -165 line range with starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-149 at SD)

Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 514-589 SU but for +69.45 units (ROI: 6.3%) since the start of the 2021 season (including 171-189 SU for +33.61 units in the last 360 divisional games).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (+105 at PHI), MILWAUKEE (+139 at CHC)

Trend: Favorites are just 28-45 (38.4%, -35.53 units) in the last 73 games between Toronto and NY Yankees
– The ROI on this trend is -48.7%
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-171 vs TOR)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are off to a slow 86-65 start for -0.59 units and an ROI of -0.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-136 at WSH), BOSTON (-111 at KC), SEATTLE (-167 vs CWS), SAN FRANCISCO (+118 at AZ)

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 28-37 for -12.59 units and an ROI of -19.4%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-126 vs CIN), CLEVELAND (+124 at DET), MILWAUKEE (+139 at CHC)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the 2025 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, these teams are off to a slow 97-68 start for -4.80 units and an ROI of -2.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (-143 vs BAL), BOSTON (-111 at KC), TEXAS (-149 at COL), CHICAGO CUBS (-168 vs MIL), SEATTLE (-167 vs CWS)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 49-62 for +6.82 units. I don’t expect this to last long.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+113 vs NYM), LA ANGELS (+108 vs ATH)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a rocky start, 89-102 for -3.13 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-105 at MIA), CLEVELAND (+124 at DET), MILWAUKEE (+139 at CHC), SAN FRANCISCO (+118 at AZ)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 53-64 start for -4.55 units (ROI -3.9%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 24-33 for -7.39 units and an ROI of -13%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – TORONTO (+141 at NYY), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+137 at SEA)
3-games – SAN DIEGO (+124 vs LAD)

Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 45-54 for -2.74 units.
System Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (+108 vs ATH)

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 463-373 for +34.79 units and an ROI of 4.2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-126 vs CIN), LA DODGERS (-149 at SD), SAN DIEGO (+124 vs LAD)

MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 228-173 for +17.05 units and an ROI of 4.3% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-111 at KC)
*WATCH FOR ATHLETICS at LAA (-131 CURRENTLY)*

MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 140-181 for -38.26 units and an ROI of -11.9% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+113 vs NYM), LA ANGELS (+108 vs ATH)
*WATCH FOR COLORADO vs TEX (+124 CURRENTLY)*

MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 394-336 but for -81.69 units and an ROI of -11.2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (-114 vs ATL), PHILADELPHIA (-126 vs CIN), NY YANKEES (-171 vs TOR), CHICAGO CUBS (-168 vs MIL), ARIZONA (-142 vs SF)

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 420-365 record for +52.04 units and an ROI of 6.6% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (+119 at TB), ATLANTA (-105 at MIA), CLEVELAND (+124 at DET), NY METS (-136 at WSH), TEXAS (-149 at COL), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+137 at SEA), SAN FRANCISCO (+118 at AZ), LA DODGERS (-149 at SD)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record of 2,050-1,948 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -272.38 units. This represents an ROI of -6.8%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (+124 at DET), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+137 at SEA), SAN FRANCISCO (+118 at AZ), LA DODGERS (-155 at SD)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2073-2643 (44%) for -268.75 units and an ROI of -5.7% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-111 at KC), HOUSTON (-104 at MIN), ATHLETICS (-131 at LAA)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 625-515 (54.8%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +30.44 units, for an ROI of 2.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-150 vs CLE), SEATTLE (-167 vs CWS)

Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 94-141 SU (-25.71 units, ROI: -10.9%) as underdogs in the follow-up contest since May 2024.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+137 at SEA)

MLB Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.

MLB Team Strength Betting System #3:
In MLB games with high totals (>= 10.5), underdogs between the +116 to +180 line range have gone 218-252 SU but for +44.33 units (ROI: 9.4%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+139 at CHC) (o/u at 10.5)

MLB Team Strength Betting System #4:
Early-season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 514-589 SU but for +69.45 units (ROI: 6.3%) since the start of the 2021 season (including 171-189 SU for +33.61 units in the last 360 divisional games).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (+105 at PHI), MILWAUKEE (+139 at CHC)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Winning Streak Betting System #10:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 161-153 (-54.71 units, ROI: -17.4%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-155 at SD)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA -126 (+29 diff), SEATTLE -167 (+24), MINNESOTA -115 (+21)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SF-AZ UNDER 9 (-0.8), BOS-KC UNDER 9 (-0.7), NYM-WSH UNDER 10.5 (-0.5), TOR-NYY UNDER 9 (-0.5)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(951) CINCINNATI (24-23) at (952) PHILADELPHIA (24-23)
Trend: CIN is 21-15 (+7.88 units) with starter Nick Lodolo vs opponents with a winning record in the last few seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+109 at PHI)
Trend: PHI is 3-14 (-11.83 units) on the run line vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-1.5 vs CIN)

(953) ATLANTA (32-15) at (954) MIAMI (21-26)
Trend: ATL is 7-1 (+5.20 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-1.5 at MIA)

(955) NEW YORK-NL (20-26) at (956) WASHINGTON (23-24)
Trend: WSH is 2-9 (-7.96 units) in home night games within line range -180 to +140 with starter Jake Irvin since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+113 vs NYM)

(957) MILWAUKEE (26-18) at (958) CHICAGO-NL (29-18)
Trend: CHC is 22-9 (+8.00 units) as a favorite versus NL opponents with starter Shota Imanaga since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-168 vs MIL)

(959) LOS ANGELES-NL (29-18) at (960) SAN DIEGO (28-18)
Trend: LAD is 21-6 (+12.61 units) as a smaller favorite within -115 to -165 line range with starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-149 at SD)

(961) SAN FRANCISCO (20-27) at (962) ARIZONA (22-23)
Trend: UNDER the total is 18-7-2 (+10.30 units) when SF is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SF-AZ (o/u at 9)
Trend: SF is 23-10 (+14.24 units) against NL teams with starter Robbie Ray since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+118 at AZ)
Trend: AZ is 17-5 (+10.07 units) in the last 22 Home Divisional starts by Zac Gallen
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-142 vs SF)

(963) BALTIMORE (21-26) at (964) TAMPA BAY (30-15)
Trend: Trevor Rogers’ teams are 18-40 (-17.59 units) when he starts as an underdog within -109 to +154 line range since 2020
Trend Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (+119 at TB)
Trend: TB is 16-5 (+10.50 units) at home this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-143 vs BAL)

(965) CLEVELAND (26-22) at (966) DETROIT (20-27)
Trend: CLE is 11-4 (+8.81 units) on the run line vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+1.5 at DET)

(967) TORONTO (21-25) at (968) NEW YORK-AL (28-19)
Trend: TOR is just 8-14 (-9.01 units) in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (+144 at NYY)

(969) BOSTON (19-27) at (970) KANSAS CITY (20-27)
Trend: Under the total is 12-2-1 (+9.80 units) when KC is a ML underdog this season (-108 vs BOS CURRENTLY)
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-KC (o/u at 9)

(973) ATHLETICS (23-23) at (974) LOS ANGELES-AL (16-31)
Trend: ATH is 6-11 (-8.57 units) as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (-131 at LAA)

(975) CHICAGO-AL (24-22) at (976) SEATTLE (22-26)
Trend: SEA is 8-23 (-14.36 units) on the run line in night games this season
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-1.5 vs CWS)
Trend: SEA is 22-6 (+13.34 units) in home games with starter Bryan Woo since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-167 vs CWS)

Series #19: Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees, Mon 5/18-Thu 5/21
Trend: Favorites are just 28-45 (38.4%, -35.53 units) in the last 73 games between Toronto and NY Yankees
– The ROI on this trend is -48.7%
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-171 vs TOR)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): CLEVELAND, SAN FRANCISCO

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Match (FADE): TEXAS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course, is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): TOR-NYY, BOS-KC, TEX-COL, ATH-LAA

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Thursday, May 21)

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