Player props have become one of baseball’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value well beyond the moneyline, run line, or game total. Each day, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board — from strikeouts and hits to total bases and pitcher outs recorded — using matchup data, recent form, and betting trends to identify edges. Keep reading for the top MLB player prop picks for May 19. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts will be all over the MLB, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
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Tuesday Player Prop Best Bets
Below you’ll find my official plays on the player prop market for Tuesday. These are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record. I’ll write three up per day, but I’ll add additional ones in an “Additional Best Bets” section. I go lighter on baseball than I do other sports. My MLB units are 50% of what my normal units are.
Jacob Misiorowski Over 16.5 Outs Recorded (-125) vs. Cubs
Brewers at Cubs – 7:40 pm ET
Misiorowski has recorded at least 18 outs in three of his last four starts. The righty is starting to get into a nice groove, with his season-long numbers looking very strong. On the season, the 24-year-old is 3-2 with a 2.12 ERA and 80 strikeouts — which is an outrageous number of Ks considering he has pitched only 51.0 innings. Well, Misiorowski now faces a Cubs lineup he should be able to navigate. Chicago has been awesome this season, with the team being third in MLB in wRC+ (114). However, Misiorowski has the stuff to stifle some of these Cubs hitters, which we have seen him do in the past. Also, as of right now, the conditions at Wrigley Field look to be pitcher friendly, with winds blowing from left to right field — and not blowing out.
Ryne Nelson Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-122) vs. Giants
Landen Roupp Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-126) vs. Diamondbacks
Giants at Diamondbacks – 9:40 pm ET
I like both pitchers to go Over their strikeout props in the Giants-Diamondbacks game. With Nelson, a total of 4.5 seems very low for a guy that has had 15 strikeouts over his last two starts. Nelson had seven against the Mets on May 8, then he had eight against the Rangers on May 13. And while San Francisco’s offense has woken up lately, I think five is a reasonable ask for Nelson. The same also goes for Roupp. We have now seen Roupp strike out at least six batters in eight of his nine starts this year, so he’s regularly going Over a total of 4.5. I don’t see that changing against a Diamondbacks offense that chases a lot of pitches.
Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110) vs. Padres
Dodgers at Padres – 9:40 pm ET
Ohtani is really starting to get things going with his bat. The 31-year-old has had at least two total bases in five consecutive games, and he has driven his average up from .233 to .265 in this stretch. Naturally, backing a scorching-hot hitter is scary, as the come-down is always right around the corner. However, Ohtani isn’t going against a very good starter tonight. Griffin Canning, who has a 15.55 ERA through three starts this season, is going to be on the hill for San Diego. Well, a pitcher lacking confidence isn’t someone you want against Ohtani. Canning is coming off back-to-back starts in which he has allowed six earned runs, and I just don’t see him figuring out a way to shut Ohtani down tonight.
Additional Best Bets
Martin Perez Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-126) vs. Marlins
Kyle Bradish Over 16.5 Outs Recorded (-127 – 1.5 units) vs. Rays
Ryan McMahon Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+140) vs. Blue Jays
Marcell Ozuna Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+115) vs. Cardinals
Jacob Lopez Over 14.5 Outs Recorded (-156) vs. Angels
Noteworthy OptaAI Player Prop Edges
Check out the BRAND NEW OptaAI Player Props MLB pages for more of these! VSiN Pro subscribers can find 50+ player prop ideas on a daily basis! We’ll list the top edges in some of the biggest markets below, but there will always be a lot more to uncover on the pages themselves.
Hao-yu Lee Oer 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-130) vs. Guardians
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him going for 1.53 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -361 — a +21.8% edge to the Over.
James Outman Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-140) vs. Astros
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.57 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -381 — a +20.9% edge to the Over.
Patrick Bailey Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-148) vs. Tigers
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.62 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -405 — a +20.5% edge to the Over.
