MLB Best Bets Today May 19
All 30 teams take the field today and there is only one interleague game, as the Rockies once again host the Rangers. After “rivalry weekend” with a bunch of interleague matchups, we have seven games in each league, with the day starting down in Miami with a 4:10 p.m. ET first pitch.
Fifteen starting pitchers will make their 10th starts of the season. It’s crazy to think that we’re about a third of the way to a pitcher’s normal workload, but that’s where we are as the season is flying by.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for May 19:
Cleveland Guardians (-144, 8) at Detroit Tigers
6:40 p.m. ET
The Guardians and Tigers play Game 2 of this four-game set at Comerica Park and these are two ships going in opposite directions. Detroit is 2-11 since Tarik Skubal hit the IL. All of the injuries have really taken a toll on their pitching staff and Keider Montero is dangerously at risk of getting a visit from the Regression Monster to make things even worse.
The right-hander has a 3.65 ERA with a 3.81 xERA and a 3.85 FIP, so it isn’t really regression that is visible in the numbers. He’s allowed just a .225 BABIP and a 6.8% HR/FB% with a 44% Hard Hit% and a 10.4% Barrel%. Montero has actually allowed 12 Barrels over his last four starts and five homers. But, fortunately for him, because he’s not allowing a ton of hits, he’s been able to limit the damage on those homers. He only has 31 strikeouts in 44.1 innings of work, so a blow-up start is definitely coming soon.
After shifting the lineup around, the Guardians have found some offensive success, as the slumping Steven Kwan was taken out of the leadoff spot. The Guardians have scored 25 runs over the last three games moving Jose Ramirez to the 2 hole, Chase DeLauter to 3, and by simply getting more out of a lot of players, including Kyle Manzardo, who will be back in the lineup today against the righty.
Parker Messick comes in with a 2.35 ERA, 3.10 xERA, and a 3.00 FIP over his 53.2 innings of work with 58 strikeouts. If nothing else, the Guardians should put more balls in play and Messick is on an extra day of rest, which should be a positive for him, as he threw 104 pitches in his last start.
Slade Cecconi, who has been in the midst of a terrible season, shut the Tigers down on Monday, as Detroit is now batting just .208/.294/.314 with a .279 wOBA over the last 14 days and their .287 xwOBA is the second-worst in baseball in that span, as they’ve been making next to no contact quality. Messick has only allowed a 31.1% Hard Hit% and a 6.1% Barrel%. He has not yet faced the Tigers over his nine starts.
The other thing about Cecconi’s strong start yesterday is that the Guardians bullpen had another pretty light workload. Cade Smith was forced to warm up in the ninth, but didn’t have to appear, so he’s had two straight days off. Cleveland also just got veteran Shawn Armstrong back off the IL, so that should help the pen as well.
This line moved about 40 cents this morning from when I started writing to when I started to set up the post. I’ll stick with the handicap, but it’ll be Guardians -1.5 at (+102) instead, as we’ll try for the multi-run win over laying the heavy juice.
Pick: Guardians Run Line -1.5 (+102)
Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees (-137, 8.5)
7:05 p.m. ET
We had a real good game on Monday night in the series lid lifter and this one has plenty of promise and potential with Dylan Cease and Will Warren, who are both having tremendous seasons. Cease enters with a 2.41 ERA, 2.90 xERA, and a 1.87 FIP, as he’s only allowed one home run in his 52.1 innings with a 75/21 K/BB ratio. He’s also done an outstanding job of limiting hard contact with a 37.3% Hard Hit% and a 4.2% Barrel%.
Warren has a 3.42 ERA with a 3.19 xERA and a 3.09 FIP over his 47.1 innings of work, as he’s also racked up plenty of punchouts. He has a 59/12 K/BB ratio over nine starts, but I don’t love this matchup for him against Toronto. You see, Warren has a 29.8% K% with just a 10.4% SwStr%. The league average for starting pitchers is 10.6% with a 21.9% K%. Warren is absolutely overperforming in the K% department and the reason why is because he is second among pitchers with at least 40 IP in CStr%. His 20.4% Called Strike Percentage is second to teammate Ryan Weathers.
Here’s why I don’t buy in tonight. Warren has allowed a 41.3% Hard Hit%, which is slightly above the league average. He ranks in the bottom 9% in average exit velo and 22nd percentile in Chase%. He’s in the 39th percentile in Hard Hit% and 36th percentile in fastball velo, so he’s not likely to overpower any hitters in the zone.
The Blue Jays swing a lot. Per Statcast ABS data, the Blue Jays are sixth in Z-Contact% and fourth in Z-Swing%. They are second in Swing%. They’re not going to let Warren rack up a bunch of called strikes, as they’re going to be more aggressive than pretty much every other opponent that Warren has faced.
Cease has a 15.2% SwStr% and, unlike Warren, a spectacular 77.9% Z-Contact%. Warren’s 86.1% Z-Contact% is a lot closer to league average, while Cease’s is really showcasing the quality of his stuff.
Both teams have been poor lately against RHP, but the Yanks have a 27.7% K% over the last 14 days in that split, while the Blue Jays have an 18.6% K%. I’ll trade some full-game equity to play the 1st 5 here, since the handicap is truly Cease vs. Warren and the two respective lineups in those matchups.
Pick: Blue Jays 1st 5 (+105)
Los Angeles Dodgers (-163, 8.5) at San Diego Padres
9:40 p.m. ET
Game 2 of the first series of the season between the Dodgers and Padres features a pretty disparate starting pitching matchup. LA sends Emmet Sheehan to the bump, while SD counters with Griffin Canning.
Canning was terrific in his first start as a Padre with five innings of one-run ball and seven strikeouts against the White Sox. His last two starts have been less than terrific, as he’s allowed 12 runs on 12 hits in six innings with seven strikeouts and six walks. Ironically, Canning allowed his only two Barrels of the season in his good start and wasn’t hit all that hard in his two bad ones, but the Dodgers have a .328 wOBA against RHP over the last 14 days and that ranks ninth, while their season-long .344 wOBA ranks second in that split.
The Padres are 26th in wOBA against RHP on the year, batting just .223/.297/.382. Part of the reason why is because they simply don’t have a lot of left-handed bats. Only Houston has more R vs. R plate appearances this season. The Padres are batting just .227/.295/.381 in those. Sheehan has held righties to a .206/.271/.254 slash in 70 PA this season and all seven homers he has allowed have been to lefties, who are batting .278/.333/.588. He has a 26.7% K% against LHB, but a .323 BABIP against. He has a 30% K% against RHB in that smaller sample.
But, this does look like a pretty good matchup for Sheehan, who allowed eight runs in his first two starts and has allowed just 13 runs over his last eight starts. He has 31 strikeouts over his last four starts and owns a 15.8% SwStr% for the season and has been above that number in three of his last four starts.
Rather than lay the stiff price with the Dodgers, let’s roll with the run line. As I’ve mentioned before, I prefer road team run lines since I know they’ll bat nine times, whereas they may only bat eight times with a one-run lead at home. Also, LA’s high-leverage arms are all well-rested, a big deal with so many guys on the IL.
Pick: Dodgers Run Line -1.5 (+102)
