Today we have a loaded slate of MLB action on tap with 15 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:40 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds at Philadelphia Phillies (-145, 8.5)
The Phillies (25-23) took last night’s series opener 5-4, coming from behind to cash as -125 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Reds (24-24) hand the ball to righty Chase Burns (5-1, 1.87 ERA) and the Phillies counter with lefty Jesus Luzardo (3-3, 5.07 ERA).
This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -135 home favorite and Cincinnati a +115 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Phillies laying modest chalk at home, steaming Philadelphia up from -135 to -145.
At Circa, the Phillies are taking in 45% of moneyline bets and 66% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split and further evidence of wiseguy desert action in their favor.
Home favorites off a win with a winning record who made the playoffs the previous season, like the Phillies here, are 51-26 (66%) with a 9% ROI this season. If priced -150 or less, they improve to 22-8 (73%) with a 31% ROI this season.
Philadelphia has additional betting system value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Reds are only hitting .209 against lefties this season, ranking 28th in MLB.
The Phillies have the better bullpen as well, sporting an ERA of 3.84 (13th) compared to 5.06 for the Reds (27th).
7:45 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals (-115, 8)
The Pirates (24-23) just got swept by the Phillies, dropping the series finale 6-0 as -130 home favorites. On the other hand, the Cardinals (27-19) just took two of three against the Royals but failed to complete the sweep, losing the series finale 2-0 as -120 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Pirates tap righty Mitch Keller (4-2, 3.59 ERA) and the Cardinals go with lefty Matthew Liberatore (2-2, 4.40 ERA).
This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed around -110 odds.
Sharps have quietly sided with the Cardinals at home, pushing St. Louis up from a -110 home pick’em to a -115 home favorite, with some shops inching toward -120.
At Circa, the Cardinals are receiving 83% of moneyline bets and a whopping 96% of moneyline dollars, a heavy one-way “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in their favor from the Vegas wiseguys.
When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the home favorite is 33-16 (67%) with a 13% ROI this season and 129-73 (64%) with a 4% ROI since 2025.
Home favorites priced -140 or less are 126-91 (58%) with a 5% ROI this season. If they are also facing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season they improve to 80-53 (60%) with an 8% ROI this season.
Keller has a 6.23 ERA at night compared to 1.73 during the day.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals are 6-3 in Liberatore’s nine starts this season.
The Pirates are only hitting .217 on the road this season, ranking 28th in MLB.
9:38 p.m. ET: Athletics at Los Angeles Angels (-135, 9)
The Angels (17-31) won last night’s series opener 2-1, walking off in the bottom of the 9th as +110 home dogs.
In tonight’s rematch, the Athletics (23-24) start lefty Jacob Lopez (3-2, 5.80 ERA) and the Angels rebuttal with fellow southpaw Reid Detmers (1-4, 4.38 ERA).
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a -125 home favorite and the Athletics a +105 road dog.
The public is banking on the Athletics to bounce back, with 56% of moneyline bets at DraftKings taking the road dog.
However, despite a majority of tickets taking the A’s we’ve actually seen this line move further toward the Angels -125 to -135. This signals sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement on Los Angeles, as the line has moved in the Angels’ direction despite being the unpopular play.
At Circa, the Angels are only receiving 30% of moneyline bets but a whopping 81% of moneyline dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in their favor from the pro bettors in Vegas.
Home favorites priced -140 or less, like the Angels here, are 126-91 (58%) with a 5% ROI this season. If they are also facing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season they improve to 80-53 (60%) with an 8% ROI this season.
Lopez has posted a 5.74 ERA in three May starts, allowing 10 earned runs in 15.2 innings pitched.
On the other hand, Detmers has posted a 4.60 ERA in three May starts, giving up 8 earned runs in 15.2 innings pitched. He has a 3.41 ERA at night compared to 6.60 during the day.
When both teams are below .500, as is the case here, the home favorite off a win is 28-17 (62%) with a 6% ROI this season.
