Player props have become one of baseball’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value well beyond the moneyline, run line, or game total. Each day, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board — from strikeouts and hits to total bases and pitcher outs recorded — using matchup data, recent form, and betting trends to identify edges. Keep reading for the top MLB player prop picks for May 20. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts will be all over the MLB, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
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Wednesday Player Prop Best Bets
Below you’ll find my official plays on the player prop market for Wednesday. These are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record. I’ll write three up per day, but I’ll add additional ones in an “Additional Best Bets” section. I go lighter on baseball than I do other sports. My MLB units are 50% of what my normal units are.
Carson Benge Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-140) vs. Nationals
Mets at Nationals – 6:45 pm ET
Benge has been on a tear for New York. The lefty slugger has recorded at least three combined hits, runs, and RBIs (HRR) in four consecutive games, and he has also done so in seven of the last eight. Benge is also averaging 2.8 HRR per game against right-handed starters over the last 17 games, going Over 1.5 total bases in 11 of those 17. Well, Benge should be able to keep it up tonight. He’s going up against Zack Littell, who has an ERA of 6.26 over his nine appearances this season. This just looks to be as good of a matchup as you can ask for, and I’ll also add in the fact that Benge is 1 for 2 with two RBIs against Littell.
Michael Wacha Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-147) vs. Red Sox
Red Sox at Royals – 7:40 pm ET
I don’t love how many plays I have with serious juice today, but it’ll happen occasionally. I have had plenty of days in which I have gone heavy to plus-money props, so it is what it is. Well, the second juicy one I’m writing up for tonight is Wacha to record at least 18 outs. Wacha is averaging 19.1 outs recorded per game this season, and he has gone Over tonight’s total in seven of his nine starts. That said, he has been extremely reliable as an innings eater this season, and his ERA of 3.19 is rock solid on the year. Well, why shouldn’t I like Wacha to work somewhat deep into this game against the Red Sox? Boston has the second-lowest wRC+ (88) in baseball this season, making this a strong matchup.
Shohei Ohtani Over 18.5 Outs Recorded (+140) vs. Brewers
Dodgers at Padres – 8:40 pm ET
I’m going from an Ohtani hitter prop last night to an Ohtani pitcher prop this evening. I’d normally look to go with Ohtani’s strikeout number, which is something I have played already this season. However, I like the righty to go out and work himself into the seventh inning tonight. Ohtani has recorded 21 outs in each of his last two starts, and he now has an ERA of 0.80 this season. It’s pretty clear that winning the NL Cy Young is a priority for Ohtani this season, and that likely means Los Angeles won’t be playing things as safely with him as usual. Well, for tonight, Ohtani gets to go against a Padres team that is just 26th in MLB in wRC+ (90). This matchup isn’t as tough as it looks on paper, so I expect Ohtani to keep things going.
Additional Best Bets
J.T. Realmuto Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-125) vs. Reds
Joe Ryan Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-137) vs. Astros
Justin Foscue Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-128 – 1.5 units) vs. Rockies
Tyler Mahle Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-165) vs. Diamondbacks
Sean Burke Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-155) vs. Mariners
Janson Junk Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-134 – 1.5 units) & Alt Strikeouts 5+ (+172 – 0.5 units) vs. Braves
Aaron Civale Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (+114) vs. Angels
Noteworthy OptaAI Player Prop Edges
Check out the BRAND NEW OptaAI Player Props MLB pages for more of these! VSiN Pro subscribers can find 50+ player prop ideas on a daily basis! We’ll list the top edges in some of the biggest markets below, but there will always be a lot more to uncover on the pages themselves.
Zack Littell Over 2.5 Strikeouts (-142) vs. Mets
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him going for 4.45 strikeouts, suggesting these odds should be -459 — a +23.4% edge to the Over.
Weston Wilson Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-139) vs. Rays
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.66 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -427 — a +22.9% edge to the Over.
Austin Wells Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-135) vs. Blue Jays
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.59 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -391 — a +22.2% edge to the Over.
