The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, May 20, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 375-188 (66.6%) for +51.60 units and an ROI of 9.2%!
System Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (-118 vs PIT)

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 375-414 but for +94.45 units and an ROI of 12% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (+125 at PHI), SAN FRANCISCO (+113 at AZ), BOSTON (+102 at KC)

Trend: MIA is 1-13 (-14.69 units) on the run line vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): MIAMI (+1.5 vs ATL)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are off to a modest 89-67 start for +0.29 units and an ROI of +0.2%.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-126 at WSH)

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1%, and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 9-10 for -2.96 units and an ROI of -15.6%.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): MINNESOTA (-149 vs HOU)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 31-39 for -11.21 units and an ROI of -16%!
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-120 vs BAL)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the 2025 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, these teams are off to a slow 102-72 start for -5.18 units and an ROI of -3%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-194 at MIA), MILWAUKEE (-101 at CHC), LA DODGERS (-188 at SD), NY YANKEES (-175 vs TOR)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 53-63 for +10.26 units. I still don’t expect this to last long.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+105 vs NYM), LA ANGELS (+102 vs ATH), COLORADO (+105 vs TEX)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 25-26 but for -14.65 units so far. Be cautious with this one.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): ATLANTA (-194 at MIA)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 93-107 for -3.10 units. However, it did get back +7.55 units since the start of last week alone.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-101 at CHC), BOSTON (+102 at KC)

Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 48-56 for -2.29 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (+100 vs CLE), CHICAGO CUBS (-120 vs MIL)

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 431-451 but for +32.48 units and an ROI of 3.7% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-120 vs MIL)

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 375-414 but for +94.45 units and an ROI of 12% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (+125 at PHI), SAN FRANCISCO (+113 at AZ), BOSTON (+102 at KC)
*WATCH FOR BALTIMORE at TB (-101 CURRENTLY) and MILWAUKEE at CHC (-101 CURRENTLY)*

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2,054-1,953 (51.2%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -273.87 units. This represents an ROI of -6.9%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+105 vs NYM), ST LOUIS (-118 vs PIT), TEXAS (-126 at COL), ATHLETICS (-125 at LAA)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2078-2647 (44%) for -267.84 units and an ROI of -5.7% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (-101 at TB), HOUSTON (+123 at MIN), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+124 at SEA)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 627-516 (54.9%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +30.82 units, for an ROI of 2.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SEATTLE (-149 vs CWS), COLORADO (+105 vs TEX)

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 375-188 (66.6%) for +51.60 units and an ROI of 9.2%!
System Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (-118 vs PIT)

Poor pitching on the season = good bet as underdog?
Teams who lost their last game after giving up 15+ hits and allow >= 4.6 RPG on the season have surprisingly been good wagers in the next game as underdogs in the -109 to +215 line range, sporting a record for 188-221 SU record for +40.36 units and an ROI of 9.9% since the start of the 2020 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): COLORADO (+105 vs TEX), LA ANGELS (+104 vs ATH)

MLB Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.

MLB Team Strength Betting System #2:
When two teams with >=0.55% win pct meet in a night game to close out a series, Under the total is 68-50-6 (57.6%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIL-CHC (o/u at 6.5), LAD-SD (o/u at 7.5)

MLB Team Strength Betting System #4:
Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 519-592 SU but for +72.51 units (ROI: 6.5%) since the start of the 2021 season (including 173-191 SU for +34.14 units in last 364 divisional games).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (+113 at AZ), TORONTO (+144 at NYY)
*WATCH FOR BALTIMORE at TB (-101 CURRENTLY) and PITTSBURGH at STL (-102 CURRENTLY)*

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 294-304 run (+12.77 units, ROI: 2.1%).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): DETROIT (+100 vs CLE)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ST LOUIS -118 (+38 diff), TEXAS -126 (+22), MINNESOTA -149 (+18), TAMPA BAY -120 (+17), SEATTLE -149 (+15)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PIT-STL OVER 7.5 (+0.7), CLE-DET OVER 7.5 (+0.6), ATL-MIA OVER 7 (+0.5), HOU-MIN OVER 8 (+0.5)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(951) CINCINNATI (25-24) at (952) PHILADELPHIA (25-24)
Trend: PHI is 27-8 (+14.25 units) as a home favorite from -150 to -198 with starter Aaron Nola in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-151 vs CIN)

(953) SAN FRANCISCO (20-29) at (954) ARIZONA (24-23)
Trend: Under the total is 19-8-2 (+10.20 units) when SF is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SF-AZ (o/u at 8.5)

(955) ATLANTA (33-16) at (956) MIAMI (22-27)
Trend: MIA is 1-13 (-14.69 units) on the run line vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): MIAMI (+1.5 vs ATL)

(957) NEW YORK-NL (21-27) at (958) WASHINGTON (24-25)
Trend: Over the total is 25-14-4 (+9.60 units) when WSH is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NYM-WSH (o/u at 9.5)

(959) MILWAUKEE (28-18) at (960) CHICAGO-NL (29-20)
Trend: Edward Cabrera’s teams are 8-13 (-3.73 units) when he starts against opponents with a >57% win pct in the last 4+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-120 vs MIL)

(963) LOS ANGELES-NL (30-19) at (964) SAN DIEGO (29-19)
Trend: Under the total is 18-11 (+5.90 units) in SD night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAD-SD (o/u at 7.5)

(965) BALTIMORE (21-28) at (966) TAMPA BAY (32-15)
Trend: Over the total is 15-8-1 (+6.20 units) in BAL day games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): BAL-TB (o/u at 8.5)
Trend: TB is 18-5 (+12.50 units) at home this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-120 vs BAL)

(967) HOUSTON (20-30) at (968) MINNESOTA (22-27)
Trend: MIN is 22-6 (+11.95 units) vs teams with a winning pct of <42% with starter Joe Ryan since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-149 vs HOU)

(971) CLEVELAND (28-22) at (972) DETROIT (20-29)
Trend: CLE is 29-16 (+11.43 units) in the -135 to +110 line range with starter Tanner Bibee in the last few seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-120 at DET)

(973) TORONTO (21-27) at (974) NEW YORK-AL (30-19)
Trend: TOR is just 8-16 (-11.01 units) in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (+144 at NYY)

(977) ATHLETICS (24-24) at (978) LOS ANGELES-AL (17-32)
Trend: Aaron Civale’s teams are 24-12 (+5.97 units) when he starts against opponents with a < 43% win pct in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): ATHLETICS (-123 at LAA)

Series #19: Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees, Mon 5/18-Thu 5/21
Trend: Favorites are just 30-45 (40%, -33.53 units) in the last 75 games between Toronto and NY Yankees
– The ROI on this trend is -44.7%
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-175 vs TOR)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Match (CONSIDER): CHICAGO WHITE SOX

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Match (FADE): TEXAS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one tomorrow, May 21)

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