Player props have become one of baseball’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value well beyond the moneyline, run line, or game total. Each day, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board — from strikeouts and hits to total bases and pitcher outs recorded — using matchup data, recent form, and betting trends to identify edges. Keep reading for the top MLB player prop picks for September 11. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts will be all over the MLB, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
MORE: Check out the VSiN Pro Picks page for more bets from our talented hosts and analysts!
Friday Player Prop Best Bets
Below you’ll find my official plays on the player prop market for Friday. These are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record. I’ll write three up per day, but I’ll add additional ones in an “Additional Best Bets” section. I go lighter on baseball than I do other sports. My MLB units are 50% of what my normal units are.
Nolan McLean Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+118) vs. Yankees
Mets at Yankees – 7:05 pm ET
As a Yankees fan, it won’t be fun backing the opposing team’s starter. However, I do really like this matchup for McLean. The righty is averaging 6.4 strikeouts per game this season, and he’s averaging 7.0 strikeouts per game against bottom-five teams in strikeout rate against righties. Well, the Yankees are comfortably in that range, as they have a 24.6% K rate against right-handed pitching. They also have a whiff percentage of 27.2%.
Max Scherzer Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+133) vs. Orioles
Orioles at Blue Jays – 7:07 pm ET
Scherzer hasn’t been consistent as a swing-and-miss pitcher this year, but he did have 10 strikeouts against a strikeout-prone Mariners team on August 30. Tonight, Scherzer gets a crack at an Orioles team that is similarly bad at avoiding Ks. Baltimore has a strikeout rate of 23.8% and whiff percentage of 25.9% against righties this year, making this a strong matchup for Scherzer to do some good work in the K column. Look for the Scherzer slider to be lethal here.
Matthew Liberatore Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+100) vs. White Sox
White Sox at Cardinals – 8:15 pm ET
Liberatore is averaging 6.2 strikeouts per game over his last 10 starts, and he has had at least seven strikeouts in five of the games. Well, the lefty now faces a White Sox team with one of the worst strikeout rates (24.8%) in MLB against southpaws. I don’t see why he can’t have another productive strikeout night, even in a hitter-friendly park. The only reason I’m not going with alternates tonight is that the weather report does call for some rain. That could prevent a full workload.
Additional Picks
Shoa Imanaga Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+128) vs. Pirates
Framber Valdez Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-121) vs. Rockies
George Kirby Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-105) vs. Athletics
Noteworthy OptaAI Player Prop Edges
Check out the BRAND NEW OptaAI Player Props MLB pages for more of these! VSiN Pro subscribers can find 50+ player prop ideas on a daily basis! We’ll list the top edges in some of the biggest markets below, but there will always be a lot more to uncover on the pages themselves.
Drew Rasmussen Under 17.5 Outs Recorded (-102) vs. Astros
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 14.26 outs recorded, suggesting these odds should be -421 — a +30.3% edge to the Over.
Robbie Ray Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-102) v. Giants
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 6.33 strikeouts, suggesting these odds should be -311 — a +25.2% edge to the Over.
Esteury Ruiz Over 0.5 Hits + Run + RBIs (-116) vs. Dodgers
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.51 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -352 — a +24.2% edge to the Over.
