MLB Best Bets Today September 11
Only one day game appears on the Friday schedule, as the Pirates head from the South Side to the North Side to take on the Cubs. Otherwise, all of our games will conclude under the stadium lights with 14 matchups on the docket for this evening. There aren’t many marquee arms on the slate and we only have a couple of really strong pitching matchups, but the hope is that we’ll still get some good drama with just a small number of weekends left in the regular season.
Note: Due to a death in the family, the MLB article might not come out every day this week/weekend/next week.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for September 11:
Angels vs. Nationals Prediction
Pick: Cade Cavalli (WAS) 8+ Strikeouts (+130), 9+ Strikeouts (+254), 10+ Strikeouts (+493)
Cavalli gets what should be a dream matchup for a guy chasing 200 strikeouts like he is. Cavalli has 185 punchies on the season in his 158.2 innings of work and he’s been on this mission for a while now, as he’s had two 10+ strikeout games and has struck out at least seven batters in six straight starts. He even had eight strikeouts in four innings against the Marlins before a very minor injury cut that start short.
The Angels have a 27.4% K% against righties over the last 30 days with just a 7.1% BB%, so they’re getting into a lot of negative counts and they’re swinging and missing with two strikes quite often. Cavalli is up to a 13.1% SwStr% in the second half and hitters have only made contact 47% of the time outside the zone. The Angels have the third-highest Chase Rate against RHP over the last 30 days.
You can tell that Cavalli is going for 200. His K% in August was 34.3% and he’s off to a 34.8% start to September. He’s actively looking to punch tickets and the Angels should oblige, as they seem to love to strike out. Also, because the Angels don’t walk much, Cavalli should be able to have the pitch efficiency that he needs to work deep into the game. So, a stepladder here, but one that seems like it has a chance in a very favorable matchup.
Mariners vs. Athletics Prediction
Pick: Athletics +138
Going to take a shot here with the A’s, as Jeffrey Springs matches up with the M’s for the second straight start. His last effort was a very good one, as he allowed two hits and two walks over seven shutout innings. The Mariners have been putrid against lefties over the last 30 days, sitting 29th in wOBA at .263 with the third-largest sample size of plate appearances in that span.
Seattle is batting just .199 with a K% north of 27% in that split, so they’ve made a lot of bad swing decisions and have not made much quality contact. The lack of run support could be rather detrimental tonight with George Kirby on the hill. While Kirby’s numbers are not bad, they are not what we’ve come to expect from the 28-year-old, as he has a 4.18 ERA with a 3.81 FIP.
The road and the second half have been unkind to him this season. Away from the safety net of T-Mobile Park, Kirby has allowed a .332/.375/.528 slash line with a .389 wOBA. For comparison, only four qualified hitters have a wOBA above .389 for the season, so Kirby has essentially allowed road lineups to perform as a top-five hitter.
Here in the second half, it hasn’t been pretty, as Kirby sports a 5.11 ERA in 49.1 innings with a .490 SLG against. Even though he’s got better contact management numbers compared to the first half, he just isn’t consistently making good pitches.
The A’s were idle yesterday, so their bullpen is fully intact. Mariners closer Andres Munoz has worked the last two days, so he may be unavailable here.
