Player props have become one of baseball’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value well beyond the moneyline, run line, or game total. Each day, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board — from strikeouts and hits to total bases and pitcher outs recorded — using matchup data, recent form, and betting trends to identify edges. Keep reading for the top MLB player prop picks for September 16. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts will be all over the MLB, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
MORE: Check out the VSiN Pro Picks page for more bets from our talented hosts and analysts!
Wednesday Player Prop Best Bets
Below you’ll find my official plays on the player prop market for Wednesday. These are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record. I’ll write three up per day, but I’ll add additional ones in an “Additional Best Bets” section. I go lighter on baseball than I do other sports. My MLB units are 50% of what my normal units are.
Logan Henderson Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-132 – 1.5 units) & Alt Strikeouts 7+ (+135 – 0.5 units) vs. Pirates
Brewers at Reds – 6:40 pm ET
Henderson is averaging 6.2 strikeouts per game this season, and he had eight Ks the last time he played the Pirates. With that in mind, I’m rolling with the righty to finish with six strikeouts tonight, and I’m also sprinkling a 7+ alternate. Not only did Henderson strike eight batters out against Pittsburgh on August 4, but the Pirates have miserable numbers when it comes to strikeout rate (23.3%) and whiff percentage (26.9%) against righties. Henderson has also had at least seven strikeouts in six straight games in pitcher-friendly parks. This is one of them.
Pete Alonso Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-109) vs. Mets
Orioles at Mets – 7:10 pm ET
Since August 9, Alonso is averaging 2.7 hits, runs, and RBIs per game against righty starters. Well, not only will Alonso be going up against a weak one tonight in Robert Stock, but he’ll be doing so at Citi Field. That’s a stadium he played in for most of his career, so he should be comfortable. Also, after going hitless on Tuesday, he’ll be locked in and fired up for this one. The Mets just honored him, so he’s going to want to show out at least once in this series.
Robbie Ray Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+118) vs. Rockies
Padres at Rockies – 8:40 pm ET
I’m with the OptaAI player prop projections on this one (linked below). They have Ray finishing with 6.10 strikeouts, and we’re just asking him to come up with five. Ray will be pitching at Coors Field, which is obviously rough on pitchers. However, Colorado has a strikeout rate of 24.7% and whiff percentage of 26.9% against lefties. Both numbers put the Rockies in the league’s 18th percentile. This is a good matchup if you’re looking for Ks.
Additional Picks
Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-132) vs. Twins
Nick Martinez Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-135) vs. Athletics
Will Smith Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-125) vs. Reds
George Kirby Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+109) vs. Angels
Noteworthy OptaAI Player Prop Edges
Check out the OptaAI Player Props MLB pages for more of these! VSiN Pro subscribers can find 50+ player prop ideas on a daily basis! We’ll list the top edges in some of the biggest markets below, but there will always be a lot more to uncover on the pages themselves.
Brady Basso Under 14.5 Outs Recorded (-111) vs. Athletics
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 10.06 outs recorded, suggesting these odds should be -1057 — a +38.8% edge to the Over.
Daniel Lynch Under 14.5 Outs Recorded (-130) vs. Astros
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 11.37 outs recorded, suggesting these odds should be -473 — a +32.1% edge to the Over.
Robbie Ray Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+118) vs. Rockies
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 6.10 strikeouts, suggesting these odds should be -268 — a +26.9% edge to the Over.
