MLB Best Bets Today September 16
It is a huge day on the diamond, as we have the conclusion of White Sox vs. Guardians early, along with games in St. Louis and Minnesota. The Tigers and Blue Jays play a mid-afternoon matchup. Then the rest of the games are late, so we have some good distractions from the work day and then can settle in for a nighttime slate. Four of the 12 postseason berths have been locked up, as we still have some exciting races to complete.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for September 16:
Athletics vs. Rays Prediction
Pick: 1st 5 Under 4.5 (-120)
Brady Basso and Nick Martinez are the listed starters here, as we’ll see a lefty/righty matchup following last night’s 2-1 win for the Rays on Junior Caminero’s 41st HR of the season. I think we have the potential for another low-scoring game in this one, at least at the start.
Basso has been getting stretched out lately by the A’s, going 2.1, 3.0, and 4.0 innings over his last three appearances with two runs allowed on 10 hits. The southpaw swingman has only allowed a 5.5% Barrel% with a 33.9% Hard Hit% on the season. He’s not much of a strikeout guy, but he has excellent control and has walked just 4.3% of opposing batters.
On the Tampa side, Martinez just continues to pitch well, as he has a 2.92 ERA with a 4.10 xERA and a 3.89 FIP over 166.1 innings of work. He’s only struck out 98, but he leverages his changeup into a ton of weak contact and it also limits the damage that lefties are able to do against him. Martinez actually had a complete game in Sacramento against the A’s with four runs allowed on eight hits back on August 11. He gave up two runs in the fourth and two runs in the ninth, when the Rays were up 12-2.
Martinez has actually been better on the road than at home, even though Tropicana Field has historically been an outstanding pitcher’s park. What should help today is that the A’s, like so many small-market teams, are built on trying to leverage platoon advantages. Lefties only have a .228/.260/.382 slash with a .279 wOBA against Martinez this season. Not surprisingly, the A’s have the third-worst batting runs value against changeups, better than only the Guardians, another platoon-heavy offense, and the Angels.
Over the last 30 days, the Rays are 23rd in wOBA against LHP at .293 and are batting just .251/.313/.365, so they’ve had very little power production in that split. That should help Basso, who already carries a low Barrel% anyway.
Orioles vs. Mets Prediction
Pick: Orioles +112
The Orioles desperately need every win they can muster, entering the day three games behind the Guardians for the final Wild Card spot. The Mets are just playing out the string on another lost season with a lot of soul searching to come in October and beyond. I think that’s a factor here today, as the Mets lost in 11 innings yesterday and have the Phillies coming to town Thursday-Sunday with a chance to play spoiler, if that matters to them at all.
There isn’t really much to spoil right now with the Phillies other than their seeding, though the lead is not insurmountable over the Diamondbacks at 3.5 games. New York has dropped three in a row and yesterday’s setback included a Kodai Senga blown save as he was working back-to-back days.
Chris Bassitt gets the call here for the O’s, as he has a 4.24 ERA with a 5.15 xERA and a 4.25 FIP over 34 innings of work since coming back from injury. He’s allowed three or fewer runs in five of those six starts, so he’s absolutely kept his team in the game more often than not. His one poor start came in Sacramento in a very tough pitcher’s park.
Robert Stock has a 5.93 ERA with a 5.08 xERA and a 3.92 FIP over his seven starts and one short relief appearance. He’s allowed 21 runs. Eighteen of them have come over three starts, with eight, seven, and three in those outings. In others, he’s been excellent. He hasn’t pitched in a week and the last time that happened, he gave up seven runs on 10 hits to the Brewers. I don’t know that it’s a predictive indicator by any means, but I don’t love when guys aren’t on some sort of regular turn or rotation. I find that it would be tougher to stay sharp.
Both pens are on pretty equal footing tonight, as the Mets used five relievers yesterday, though I would guess Jonathan Pintaro and Kodai Senga are unavailable. Grant Wolfram is probably the only one totally unavailable for the O’s, who would like to avoid Rico Garcia as well if possible. At this plus-money price, though, I think Baltimore is worth a look.
