Player props have become one of baseball’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value well beyond the moneyline, run line, or game total. Each day, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board — from strikeouts and hits to total bases and pitcher outs recorded — using matchup data, recent form, and betting trends to identify edges. Keep reading for the top MLB player prop picks for September 17. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts will be all over the MLB, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
MORE: Check out the VSiN Pro Picks page for more bets from our talented hosts and analysts!
Thursday Player Prop Best Bets
Below you’ll find my official plays on the player prop market for Thursday. These are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record. I’ll write three up per day, but I’ll add additional ones in an “Additional Best Bets” section. I go lighter on baseball than I do other sports. My MLB units are 50% of what my normal units are.
Michael King Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+120) vs. Rockies
Padres at Rockies – 3:10 pm ET
This season, King is averaging 5.0 strikeouts per game when facing teams in the league’s bottom 10 in strikeout rate. Well, the Rockies are 21st in MLB this year, so they fall into that category. Of course, an average of 5.0 doesn’t mean a major edge considering we need him to have five strikeouts tonight. But King did strike out six batters against the Rockies on July 28, and I’m not writing him off strictly because he’s pitching in Coors Field. He might give up some runs, but I still think he can miss bats. At plus-money odds, I’m taking a shot here.
Nolan McLean Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+113 – 1.5 units) & Alt Strikeouts 7+ (+217 – 0.5 units) vs. Philies
Phillies at Mets – 7:15 pm ET
In McLean’s only start against the Phillies this year, the righty struck out 10 batters in 6.0 innings of work. Perhaps Philadelphia will come out ready to right some of the wrongs from the last meeting, but six is a pretty reasonable ask for McLean. The Phillies have a strikeout rate of 21.9% against right-handed pitching this season, and their whiff percentage is way up over the last 10 games. I’d be surprised if McLean can’t get to six, and I think there’s a very realistic chance he whiffs seven.
Zach Neto Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+100) vs. Twins
Twins at Angels – 9:38 pm ET
Neto is quietly one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now. He’s averaging 2.6 hits, runs, and RBIs per game over his last 15 games, and he has had at least three in three of his last four. Well, I’m riding the hot hand tonight. Taj Bradley is a good pitcher, but his ERA is higher on the road. It’s also higher when pitching at night. That could spell trouble playing in Anaheim in a late game.
Additional Picks
Kyle Harrison Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-124 – 1.5 units) & Alt Strikeouts 6+ (+128 – 0.5 units) & Alt Strikeouts 7+ (+310 – 0.25 units) vs. Brewers
Justin Wrobleski Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-105) vs. Reds
Noteworthy OptaAI Player Prop Edges
Check out the OptaAI Player Props MLB pages for more of these! VSiN Pro subscribers can find 50+ player prop ideas on a daily basis! We’ll list the top edges in some of the biggest markets below, but there will always be a lot more to uncover on the pages themselves.
Drew Rasmussen Under 17.5 Outs Recorded (+136) vs. Athletics
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 14.35 outs recorded, suggesting these odds should be -404 — a +37.8% edge to the Over.
Justin Wrobleski Over 11.5 Outs Recorded (-121) vs. Reds
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 17.11 outs recorded, suggesting these odds should be -1136 — a +37.2% edge to the Over.
Henry Davis Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-115) vs. Brewers
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.49 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -342 — a +23.9% edge to the Over.
