MLB Best Bets Today September 17
Nine games are on the MLB slate for today, as we start early, at least out here in Las Vegas, with a 9:35 a.m. PT contest in Pittsburgh. The Dodgers and Reds start five minutes later and the A’s and Rays start 30 minutes after that. In the interest of lead time, I’ve scratched those games off the list and will focus on the six other games on the docket.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for September 17:
Phillies vs. Mets Prediction
Pick: Phillies +109; Over 8 (-118)
We’ll see if the Mets get off the deck here and step up to face a division rival. The Phillies have the chance to move another game closer to clinching a playoff spot and can gain a half-game on the Braves in the division. It’s a long shot, especially with the remaining schedule for Philadelphia, but they probably think there’s still a chance.
Aaron Nola has been really good lately for the Phils. Over his last nine starts, he has a 2.38 ERA with a 3.60 xERA and a 4.44 FIP. The high FIP is worrisome, but it’s mostly a byproduct of the nine homers he has allowed with a 16.4% HR/FB%. He has only allowed 45 hits in 53 innings and has limited the opponent to two or fewer runs in eight of those nine starts. The 97.3% LOB% in that span is definitely an area ripe for regression, so that’s part of the reason why I’m looking at the Over, especially since the Mets have the best offense in baseball against RHP by wOBA over the last two weeks and rank third over the last 30 days.
Even if Nola does get tagged a bit here, he’s been generating a ton of chase lately and that could help suppress the Mets more than enough for the Phillies to be live at the underdog price here. Their leverage relievers are all available with pretty light weeks all things considered.
Nolan McLean has a 3.24 ERA with a 3.72 xERA and a 3.67 FIP as he’s had a terrific season that probably has gone under the radar a little bit given how poor the Mets have played as a team. McLean actually boasts a 2.73 ERA over his 59.1 innings in the second half, surprising to me as he had only thrown 48 innings at the MLB level last season and is approaching 170 this season.
But, if you look more at McLean’s second half, there are reasons to be worried about this start and his remaining ones. His K% is down 4% in the second half and he has a double-digit BB% at 10.9%, a 2.2% leap from the first half. His LOB% in the first half was 68.9% with a higher K% and sits at 83.6% here in the second half. Maybe we saw some of that regression from McLean when he allowed five runs on 10 hits to the Yankees last time out. That’s another reason why I’m looking at the Over.
The Mets bullpen is fine, but injuries and trades have left a skeleton crew back there of guys with high ERAs who are just trying to get by on a nightly basis. If this one is close late, the Phillies should have the bullpen advantage.
Twins vs. Angels Prediction
Pick: Twins 1st 5 (-110)
No interest in messing with either bullpen here, as the Twins and Angels fire up a four-game weekend set. The motivation for the Angels right now is to avoid 100 losses, as they have 94 thus far. Since their inception in 1961, the Angels have never lost 100+ games. They lost 99 back in 2024 to narrowly avoid being the team with that dubious distinction. I’m not sure this year’s team can avoid that fate.
We do have a solid pitching matchup here between Taj Bradley and Walbert Urena. This should be an outstanding matchup for Bradley, who tilts towards the fly ball side and has a bit of a walk problem. Angel Stadium is a pretty neutral park for home runs, but grades below average for doubles and triples, the things that come along with aerial contact that can really hurt.
Bradley needs 10 strikeouts for 200 and he’s got a good lineup to go after in that regard. Over the last 14 days, the Angels have a 29.8% K% against RHP and an 8.6% BB%. Stretch that to 30 days and it’s a 28.3% K% with a 7.7% BB%. Bradley has a 27.3% K% for the season with a 10.3% BB%.
In the second half, Bradley has a 4.16 ERA, but that’s misleading, as he’s posted a lower BA and SLG against compared to the first half when he had a 3.59 ERA. The walks have been the biggest issue for him, but he’s facing a lineup that doesn’t walk much in this start.
Urena has a sub-3.00 ERA for the season, but it is 3.79 over his last seven starts, as he’s allowed 3+ runs in four of them. He, too, is a guy who can have some walk issues, but he doesn’t have the same rate of strikeouts to pair with it that Bradley does. Urena is also a high ground ball guy and there’s more batted ball variance to those guys than there is for fly ball guys.
While the Twins haven’t done much on offense lately, they do have the lowest K% against RHP over the last 30 days, so I would expect Minnesota to put more balls in play in this matchup and that should give them the upper hand for the 1st 5.
