Player props have become one of baseball’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value well beyond the moneyline, run line, or game total. Each day, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board — from strikeouts and hits to total bases and pitcher outs recorded — using matchup data, recent form, and betting trends to identify edges. Keep reading for the top MLB player prop picks for September 22. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts will be all over the MLB, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
MORE: Check out the VSiN Pro Picks page for more bets from our talented hosts and analysts!
Tuesday Player Prop Best Bets
Below you’ll find my official plays on the player prop market for Tuesday. These are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record. I’ll write three up per day, but I’ll add additional ones in an “Additional Best Bets” section. I go lighter on baseball than I do other sports. My MLB units are 50% of what my normal units are.
Max Scherzer Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+104) vs. Orioles
Blue Jays at Orioles – 6:35 pm ET
Scherzer only had three strikeouts against the Orioles on September 11, but this is a matchup the veteran should take advantage of. Baltimore has a strikeout rate of 24.1% against righties, and the team’s whiff percentage (26.1%) is also quite miserable. Camden Yards also happens to be a pitcher-friendly environment, so the baseline stuff favors a solid swing-and-miss pitcher. There’s also the fact that Scherzer is in the 79th percentile of Chase%, while the Orioles are in the 72nd percentile. I expect him to do some good work tonight, and I think his curveball will be a big factor.
Randall Grichuk Over 1.5 Total Bases (+155) vs. Royals
White Sox at Royals – 7:40 pm ET
Grichuk is averaging 2.1 total bases per game against lefties in his last 18 games, and he has really had a strong season for Chicago — after having been thrown away by New York. Well, in tonight’s game, Grichuk gets to go up against a hittable southpaw in Daniel Lynch IV. What I love about this matchup is that Grichuk has been great against changeups, fastballs, and sinkers, and those pitches make up 78% of Lynch’s pitch mix.
Yusei Kikuchi Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+128) & Alt Strikeouts 7+ (+241 – 0.5 units) vs. Athletics
Angels at Athletics – 9:40 pm ET
The last time Kikuchi faced a team that ranks 24th or worse in strikeout rate against lefties, he had six strikeouts in a meeting with the Pirates. Well, 24th is right where the Athletics stand in the rankings, and I believe Kikuchi will take advantage of that. The lefty’s splitter should really do some damage tonight, as it’s not a pitch the A’s have seen much of this year. Of course, it’s tough pitching at Sutter Health Park, which is very hitter friendly. But I think Kikuchi can work through it.
Additional Picks
Ketel Marte Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-125) vs. Rockies
Noteworthy OptaAI Player Prop Edges
Check out the OptaAI Player Props MLB pages for more of these! VSiN Pro subscribers can find 50+ player prop ideas on a daily basis! We’ll list the top edges in some of the biggest markets below, but there will always be a lot more to uncover on the pages themselves.
Kyle Freeland Over 12.5 Outs Recorded (+116) vs. Diamondbacks
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 16.29 outs recorded, suggesting these odds should be -472 — a +36.2% edge to the Over.
Daniel Lynch Under 14.5 Outs Recorded (+112) vs. White Sox
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 11.37 outs recorded, suggesting these odds should be -473 — a +35.4% edge to the Over.
Esteury Ruiz Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-105) vs. Cubs
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.50 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -347 — a +26.4% edge to the Over.
