MLB Best Bets Today September 22
Game 1 of a double dip in the Bronx gets us going for a 16-game slate on the final Tuesday of the regular season. The three races still hanging in the balance are the AL Central, AL West, and the final AL Wild Card spot. In the NL, we’re just looking at the seeding of the teams. But, seed lines can be very important based on the matchups, so we’ll see how everybody tries to align themselves as the week goes along.
I talked yesterday about looking at players who are close to round numbers in various categories – strikeouts, wins, ERA, stolen bases, home runs, batting average, etc. Those can all be player prop angles to consider this week. Along with those angles, you should keep in mind that some starters – the young and the ones getting lined up for the playoffs – are likely to have shorter starts than usual. It’s a messy handicapping week in a lot of ways, but if you pay attention to the news and keep an eye on personal accomplishments, it can help a ton.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats.
Here are the MLB best bets today for September 22:
White Sox vs. Royals Prediction
Pick: White Sox -125; Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 Total Bases (+108)
Southpaws Anthony Kay and Daniel Lynch IV are the listed starters here at Kauffman Stadium in a massive series for Chicago. We’ll see how excited the Royals are about trying to play spoiler, as they are going to finish last in the AL Central, but are 29-30 in the second half. That said, they are just 5-13 in September and have only scored 66 runs, an average of just 3.7 R/G, so the offense has disappeared once again.
Specifically, their offense against LHP has disappeared. Over the last 30 days, KC is dead last in wOBA at .260, despite being third in BB% in that split at 11.1%. They’re only batting .196 with a .304 SLG, which are both the worst in the league in that span. The left-handed Kay is likely to be followed by some other lefties like Hagen Smith, Sean Newcomb, and Bryan Hudson. Maybe Noah Schultz also gets a leverage spot. Either way, it could be a steady diet of southpaws. Even if not, the Royals are also just 22nd in wOBA against RHP over the last 14 days.
Kay had a huge velocity bump last time out against the Guardians. It seems like the White Sox are treating him as a four-and-fly arm now and have told him to ramp it up and go max effort for 60ish pitches. He has averaged 95.9 mph on the fastball this season. He sat 98.2 with it against Cleveland and sat 97 on his sinker, which has averaged 95.3 mph for the season. So, he’s reaching back for a little extra since the team isn’t expecting him to go deep into ballgames.
Lynch moved into the rotation for the Royals on August 7 and has a 5.28 ERA with a 5.04 xERA and a 4.86 FIP over 30.2 innings and eight starts. Out of 129 batters faced, Lynch has only struck out 17 of them. While the Royals have struggled with LHP, the White Sox have not, sitting fourth in wOBA at .348 over the last 30 days. They also have the highest BB% at 14.4% in that split.
The Royals are also 22nd in bullpen ERA this month, while the White Sox are sixth.
As far as the Vargas prop goes, he’s slashing .274/.395/.549 against lefties on the season with a 160 wRC+. He has a 53% Hard Hit% and a 14.4% Barrel% in that split. He’s hit 21 HR in just 201 PA against them and has a 35/34 K/BB ratio. Walks won’t help with total bases, but it does illustrate how he gets into favorable counts.
Mets vs. Rangers Prediction
Pick: Rangers 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 Runs (+130)
The Mets are playing out the string and the Rangers have everything to play for this week, so we’ll see how things play out in Arlington. I don’t really know what to expect from MacKenzie Gore, but I do like this matchup for the Rangers against Sean Manaea.
Manaea was better last time out with two solo homers allowed over 5.1 innings to the Orioles, but he’s allowed 25 runs on 39 hits in his last 34 innings, posting a 6.62 ERA with a 6.15 xERA and a 5.71 FIP in his last six starts.
The Rangers lead the league with a .381 wOBA and a 148 wRC+ against LHP over the last 30 days, slashing .305/.370/.515. If we cut it down to 14 days, the Rangers are slashing .287/.353/.404 in the smaller sample size, so not nearly as good from a power standpoint, but they’re still going on base quite a bit. Manaea also isn’t a strikeout guy, which has been their shortcoming against southpaws recently.
As the Rangers begin a huge series, they should be locked in offensively with a favorable matchup.
Angels vs. Athletics Prediction
Pick: Over 9.5 (-102)
This series could be an absolute free-for-all in Sacramento. Two teams whose only goal is avoiding 100 losses come together in a great hitting environment and you know that guys will be swinging for some better numbers. Brady Basso and Yusei Kikuchi are today’s starters and it could be a rough night for both guys.
Basso was cruising along pretty nicely until he allowed four runs on seven hits in 2.2 innings against the Rays last time out. He didn’t record any strikeouts and only has 28 K in 40 innings of work. He has allowed a .301/.337/.484 slash in 98 plate appearances in Sacramento and we still have a few warmer days left there for this season.
Kikuchi has a 5.02 ERA with a 4.94 xERA and a 4.23 FIP over his 57.1 innings of work in what has been a lost season. He’s made five starts since returning from injury and has a 4.10 ERA with a 4.91 xERA and a 4.88 FIP. He’s walked 12 batters in his last three starts and he’s never really been a guy to avoid the long ball, so he’s been extremely fortunate not to allow any in his last three starts. I’m not sure that’ll be the case tonight.
I just think we’ll see a lot of guys taking aggressive hacks in this series and in this game tonight. Kikuchi has allowed a .286/.372/.486 slash in 165 plate appearances away from Angel Stadium this season and this is not a good pitcher’s park by any means. We’ll see if my hunch plays out.
