Player props have become one of baseball’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value well beyond the moneyline, run line, or game total. Each day, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board — from strikeouts and hits to total bases and pitcher outs recorded — using matchup data, recent form, and betting trends to identify edges. Keep reading for the top MLB player prop picks for September 23. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts will be all over the MLB, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
MORE: Check out the VSiN Pro Picks page for more bets from our talented hosts and analysts!
Wednesday Player Prop Best Bets
Below you’ll find my official plays on the player prop market for Wednesday. These are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record. I’ll write three up per day, but I’ll add additional ones in an “Additional Best Bets” section. I go lighter on baseball than I do other sports. My MLB units are 50% of what my normal units are.
Max Scherzer Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+150) vs. Orioles
Blue Jays at Orioles – 1:35 pm ET
I wanted to take Scherzer on Tuesday, but I’ll go to him again after the game was postponed. Scherzer only had three strikeouts against the Orioles on September 11, but this is a matchup the veteran should take advantage of. Baltimore has a strikeout rate of 24.1% against righties, and the team’s whiff percentage (26.1%) is also quite miserable. Camden Yards also happens to be a pitcher-friendly environment, so the baseline stuff favors a solid swing-and-miss pitcher. There’s also the fact that Scherzer is in the 79th percentile of Chase%, while the Orioles are in the 72nd percentile. I expect him to do some good work against this lineup, and I think his curveball will be a big factor.
Logan Henderson Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-104 – 1.5 units) & Alt Strikeouts 7+ (+200 – 0.5 units) vs. Phillies
Brewers at Phillies – 6:40 pm ET
Henderson has had at least six strikeouts in nine of his last 10 starts. He’s also averaging 6.9 strikeouts per game in this recent stretch, and he has had six games with at least seven strikeouts. He’s very dialed in right now, and this trip to pitcher-friendly Citizens Bank Park shouldn’t change that. The Phillies have been good about avoiding Ks lately, but the full season’s body of work suggests this isn’t an awful matchup.
Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120) vs. Reds
Reds at Braves – 7:15 pm ET
Over the last 20 games, Acuna is averaging 1.9 total bases per game against southpaws. That’s really nothing to get too excited about, but it’s better than it was to start the year. He’s really starting to see the ball well, and I like him to take advantage of a matchup with Andrew Abbott on Wednesday — if he ends up playing. Abbott likes to use his changeup and slider, and those are two pitches Acuna crushes.
Additional Picks
Nothing yet.
Noteworthy OptaAI Player Prop Edges
Check out the OptaAI Player Props MLB pages for more of these! VSiN Pro subscribers can find 50+ player prop ideas on a daily basis! We’ll list the top edges in some of the biggest markets below, but there will always be a lot more to uncover on the pages themselves.
Junior Caminero Over 1.5 Total Bases (+129) vs. Yankees
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 2.10 total bases, suggesting these odds should be -164 — a +18.4% edge to the Over.
Foster Griffin Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+110) vs. Red Sox
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 5.39 strikeouts, suggesting these odds should be -167 — a +14.9% edge to the Over.
Erick Fedde Over 2.5 Strikeouts (-161) vs. Royals
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 3.74 strikeouts, suggesting these odds should be -260 — a +10.5% edge to the Over.
