MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Wednesday, September 23.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
1:10 PM Eastern
Washington Nationals vs. Detroit Tigers
The Nationals were expected to have Cade Cavalli make this start, but decided on Tuesday to shut him down for the season, which will likely lead to lots of bullpen use by the Nationals. The Nationals bullpen is 29th in ERA at 5.08, while Tigers starting pitcher Framber Valdez has a 4.06 ERA with a career-low 6.9 strikeouts per nine innings and faces a Washington lineup that is third in scoring with 5.1 runs per game.
Pick: Nationals vs. Tigers Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.7
7:05 PM Eastern
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees
Yankees starting pitcher Gerrit Cole owns a 3.63 ERA with 9.1 strikeouts and 1.6 walks per nine innings, but is also allowing 1.6 home runs per nine innings. At home, his ERA climbs to 3.93 with just over two home runs per nine innings allowed. Rays starting pitcher Ian Seymour has a 4.38 ERA with 11 strikeouts and 2.5 walks per nine innings, but is also allowing 1.8 home runs per nine innings, and both bullpens were heavily used on Tuesday with the doubleheader.
Pick: Rays vs. Yankees Over 7 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.7
7:10 PM Eastern
Cleveland Guardians vs. Boston Red Sox
The Guardians offense is 26th in scoring overall this season with 4.2 runs per game, but since August 1 is sixth in scoring with 4.8 runs per game. Red Sox starting pitcher Sonny Gray is getting his lowest strikeout rate since 2016 with 8.1 strikeouts per nine innings, and while he has a 2.82 ERA, he has a higher 3.50 fielding independent. Guardians starting pitcher Foster Griffin has a 3.67 ERA with a 4.07 fielding independent and 1.2 home runs per nine innings allowed. His ERA has risen to 5.79 since being traded to the Guardians in August, and he faces a Red Sox lineup that leads the American League in scoring since the All-Star Break with over 4.7 runs per game.
Pick: Guardians vs. Red Sox Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.2
7:40 PM Eastern
Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals
White Sox starting pitcher Erick Fedde has a solid 3.90 ERA but a much higher 5.03 fielding independent with 1.5 home runs and 3.3 walks per nine innings allowed. His ERA goes from 3.05 at home to 4.87 away from home. Royals starting pitcher Seth Lugo has a 5.06 ERA overall this season, but his 4.40 fielding independent with 1.2 home runs and 2.9 walks per nine innings points toward positivity. His ERA also falls to 4.07 at home with 0.6 home runs per nine innings allowed. The Royals are last in the league in road scoring at 3.6 runs per game while ranking ninth in scoring at home with over 4.8 runs per game.
Pick: Royals Moneyline -102
Greg’s Handicap: Royals -116
Miami Marlins vs. Chicago Cubs
Even with the wind blowing inward, there should be runs to be had considering the Cubs lead the league in scoring with over 5.3 runs per game and both starting pitchers are far from dominant. Cubs starting pitcher Kevin Gausman has a 4.55 ERA with 1.3 home runs and 2.4 walks per nine innings, with his ERA ballooning to 5.50 in his 19 starts since June 1. Marlins starting pitcher Ryan Gusto has a 4.14 ERA with 7.5 strikeouts and 2.8 walks per nine innings, with a bullpen behind him that is 26th in ERA since June 1 at 5.06.
Pick: Marlins vs. Cubs Over 7 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.6
