Today we have a loaded MLB slate with 15 games to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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7:07 p.m. ET: New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays (-115, 8.5)
The Blue Jays (9-8) won Monday night’s series opener 3-1, cashing as -115 home favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the Blue Jays tap lefty Yusei Kikuchi (0-1, 2.30 ERA) and the Yankees (12-5) rebuttal with fellow southpaw Carlos Rodon (1-0, 2.87 ERA). This line opened with New York listed as a -115 road favorite and Toronto a +105 home dog. The public is all over the Bronx Bombers to get back on track and bounce back with a win. However, despite 78% of bets taking the Yankees, we’ve seen this line completely flip to Blue Jays -115. In other words, we are seeing sharp “dog to favorite” on line movement on Toronto, with pros backing the home team to win again tonight. The Blue Jays are only receiving 22% of moneyline bets but 32% of moneyline dollars, a sharp contrarian bet split. “Sweet spot” short favorites -130 or less are 62-44 (59%) this season with an 8% ROI. Back on April 5th, Kikuchi went 5.1 innings and allowed zero runs in a 3-0 win over New York in the Bronx. Toronto is 5-2 at home this season and 6-2 as a favorite. We’ve also seen some under liability, as the total is 8.5 with the under juiced up to -115, signaling a possible dip down to 8. The Yankees are 11-5-1 to the under this season, the best under team in baseball. Toronto is 10-7 to the under. The forecast calls for low 50s with partly cloudy skies and 5 MPH winds blowing in from center at Rogers Centre, where the roof is expected to be open.
7:40 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals (-185, 8) at Chicago White Sox
The Royals (11-6) took last night’s series opener 2-0, taking care of business as -175 road favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the Royals start righty Brady Singer (2-0, 0.98 ERA) and the White Sox (2-14) counter with fellow righty Jonathan Cannon, who is making his MLB debut. This line opened with Kansas City listed as a -175 road favorite and Chicago a +150 home dog. Pros aren’t scared off by the expensive chalk and have gotten down on the Royals, steaming Kansas City up from -175 to -185. The Royals are receiving 92% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating lopsided one-way support from both sharps and the betting public. Kansas City has the better bats, hitting .245 vs .196 for Chicago. The Royals have scored 87 runs compared to just 34 for the White Sox. Kansas City also has the superior pitching staff, sporting a team ERA of 2.86 vs 4.78. Road favorites are 54-27 (67%) this season with a 17% ROI. The Royals are 9-2 over their last 11 games. The White Sox are 1-10 over their last 11 games. Kansas City is 5-0 against Chicago this season. The Royals are 5-1 as a favorite. Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 8.5 to 8. The under is receiving 65% of bets and 76% of money, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy. The forecast calls for low 70s with cloudy skies and 15 MPH winds blowing in from right center at U.S. Cellular Field.
8:10 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves (-120, 9.5) at Houston Astros
The Braves (10-5) won last night’s Interleague series opener 6-1, cruising as -120 road favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the Braves hand the ball to righty Reynaldo Lopez (1-0, 0.75 ERA) and the Astros send out fellow righty Hunter Brown (0-2, 16.43 ERA). This line opened with Atlanta listed as a -115 road favorite and Houston a +105 home dog. Sharps seem to think this opener was a bit short and have pounced on the Braves laying short chalk, steaming Atlanta up from -115 to -120. The Braves are receiving 78% of moneyline bets and 83% of moneyline dollars, signaling both public and sharp support. The Braves have the edge at the plate (hitting .301 vs .273) and on the mound (team ERA 4.64 vs 5.35). Interleague favorites off a win, like Atlanta here, are 16-12 (57%) this season and 239-148 (62%) since the start of last season. Road favorites are 54-27 (67%) this season. Lopez has only given up one run over 12 innings in his first two starts. On the other hand, Brown has allowed a whopping 14 runs over his past two starts. In his last outing, he lasted just 0.2 innings, allowed 9 runs in a 13-3 loss to the Royals. Atlanta is +24 in run differential. Houston is -18.
