Brewers vs. Dodgers
Conspiracy theorists are running wild, saying that the Dodgers are throwing the NLCS to the Brewers so that a small-market team can make the World Series and that we will have two small-market teams because the winner of Rays vs. Guardians is low on the payroll list as well. Those people are idiots. The Brewers have earned every victory in this series so far and sit on the precipice of their first World Series appearance since 1982.
We’ll see what the Dodgers have left in the tank, as they are heavy favorites to stave off elimination with Tyler Glasnow on the hill. As of this morning, the Brewers had not yet named a starting pitcher, though all signs point to Dustin May featuring prominently in Game 4 in some capacity.
Brewers vs. Dodgers (-157, 7.5) Prediction
8 p.m. ET
Two tweets sum up this series.
The first is from Mike Petriello, MLB’s guru of statistics:
The three true outcomes are strikeouts, walks, and home runs. The Brewers have outscored the Dodgers 15-7 in the series, slugging five home runs and drawing 13 walks along the way. They’ve also struck out 35 times in just 96 at bats. But, they also have 27 hits and are batting .281/.373/.458 in the series. The Brewers had the lowest Chase Rate at 26.6% and lowest Swing% at 43.8% during the regular season, and also led the league in BB%.
The Brewers are clearly going up to the plate with a plan and are looking for pitches that are in specific areas, which is keeping them from chasing. As a result of long plate appearances, Dodgers pitchers have made some mistakes and the Brewers have capitalized on them.
The second is from J.P. Hoornstra, National Baseball Writer for Newsweek:
As we head into Game 4, nobody playing regularly is hitting higher than .250 for LA in this series. Miguel Rojas is batting .500. He’s 1-for-2. Obviously there has been a lot of talk about Shohei Ohtani and his long-term struggles that date back to mid-August. His .417 OBP is second to Kyle Tucker’s .455 mark.
Baseball is a high-variance game, particularly when it comes to balls in play. Brewers pitchers have only allowed 15 hits in 27 innings. Dodgers pitchers have allowed 27 in 25. In all, LA is batting .165/.264/.187 in the series.
Perhaps we could make the argument that the Dodgers underestimated the Brewers in light of last season’s NLCS sweep or that the team just assumed that their higher talent level would take them through. The realities are that one team has executed better than the other and one team has been managed better than the other.
While Pat Murphy may have made a faux pas leaving Abner Uribe in too long in Game 3, the questionable decisions are mounting for Dave Roberts, none bigger than leaving Blake Snell in after the 11-pitch at bat that resulted in a Jake Bauers go-ahead home run. It was also very questionable to go to Kris Bubic and Brock Stewart in Game 2.
Anyway, back to today’s game, where Glasnow gets the ball and it is up to him to keep the series alive, where the Dodgers would then be able to use Tarik Skubal and Yoshinobu Yamamoto in hopes of extending it further. The 6-foot-8 right-hander was wildly effective in his start against the Braves, as he only allowed one run on one hit, but was limited to 4.2 innings because he walked five batters to go along with five strikeouts. Like Snell last night, Glasnow spent most of the regular season in the trainer’s room, as he was limited to 13 starts and 74 innings pitched. He had a 3.53 ERA with a 2.86 xERA and a 2.73 FIP, so he was very good, but also had a 4.46 ERA in his six starts over August and September.
Glasnow missed about three and a half months from early May to late August, but just so happened to be able to come back at the right time to get some work in and build up for the playoffs. He even struck out 21 batters over his first 12.1 innings, but he also walked 11 batters over his final four starts and we saw those control issues pop up in the NLDS.
At time of writing, it was all speculation as to who the Brewers would start. Lefties Kyle Harrison and Shane Drohan have not been deployed yet in the series and the Dodgers just did nothing against southpaw Robert Gasser, who pitched five shutout frames. I could see Harrison/Drohan in a piggyback capacity with May following them. I think Murphy tries to go for the kill here today. I think he’d like to avoid using Uribe and probably DL Hall, but if he has the chance to end the series, he will.
May worked four innings in the NLDS against the Padres and allowed two runs on three hits with four strikeouts and two walks. He faced 17 batters, so his start didn’t last very long to say the least. May also had a 4.70 ERA with a 4.43 xERA and a 3.63 FIP during the regular season in 145.2 innings and a 5.65 ERA with a 6.06 xERA and a 5.06 FIP as a member of the Brewers in 10 starts covering just 36.2 innings.
My guess is that Murphy won’t let May turn the lineup over, which is where Harrison and/or Drohan could come into play. Neither guy has a postseason appearance yet, despite being on the roster throughout. Drohan hasn’t pitched since September 27. Harrison, who had an awful stretch in late August and early September, hasn’t pitched since September 26. But, both guys represent a different look for Dodgers hitters.
I’d also expect some heavy lifting for Aaron Ashby, who had a hold and a save in the two games in Milwaukee, but didn’t pitch yesterday. He was outstanding in the regular season with a 3.12 ERA over 89.1 innings of work. So far in the postseason, he hasn’t allowed a run in five appearances covering 9.1 innings.
Brewers vs. Dodgers NLCS Game 4 Prediction
The Brewers are the starting point for me here at +130. Milwaukee has simply looked more prepared in every single game. Perhaps the older Dodgers roster has some bumps and bruises or the toll of last year’s long season is showing up, but they’re just not performing at a high level right now. A team like that has the chance to turn it on at any time, but the Brewers look like they spent all offseason and all of this season planning for the rematch. So far, they’ve been up to the task.
After falling behind in the seventh in Game 3, the Dodgers managed just an Ohtani single over their final 10 plate appearances across 36 pitches, including several early-count outs. Perhaps a live situation comes up to take the Dodgers at a better price, but starting with Milwaukee +130 leaves a lot of wiggle room to lock in profit in-game if possible.
Pick: Brewers +130
