Dave “Dog or Pass” Tuley points out that underdogs have won outright on each of the last three Thursday nights.
- Week 3: Falcons (+4.5) beat Packers 35-14
- Week 4: Browns (+2.5) beat Steelers 27-24
- Week 5: Buccaneers (+9.5) beat Cowboys 24-16
So count Dave in on the home underdog Broncos (+2.5) against the Seahawks tonight (8:15 p.m. ET), right?
Well, not exactly.
“It would be tempting to take the Broncos if we can get +3,” Dave writes. But he has another way to play the game.
>> Read Tuley’s Takes for Seahawks–Broncos and Every Week 6 Game
ICYMI: Zach Cohen has his own game preview and Best Bet.
>> Read Zach’s Seahawks–Broncos Picks and Props
>> VSiN NFL Week 6 Betting Hub
From the VSiN Community: A Thursday Night QB Prop
Yesterday I invited VSiN Community members to submit a Thursday Night Football Best Bet—and explain the reasoning. Dean Sheaffer came through with a thoughtful argument for a quarterback prop.
⚾ Dodgers Are One Loss Away from Elimination
The two-time defending World Series champion Dodgers are on the brink after Milwaukee’s 6-2 victory Wednesday gave the Brewers a 3-0 NLCS lead. Game 4 is tonight (8 p.m. ET, FS1).
Adam Burke has a simple argument to debunk the conspiracy theories suggesting the Dodgers are throwing the series to help a small-market team reach the World Series ahead of a potential labor dispute.
“The Brewers have simply been the better team in this series and learned from last season’s mistakes,” Adam writes in a note for VSiN Daily.
Adam points to Jake Bauers, Andrew Vaughn, DL Hall and Trevor Megill as examples of Milwaukee’s resourcefulness in building its roster.
“This brilliant organization, coaching staff, and bunch of really good ballplayers is one game away from the World Series and that’s not a fluke,” Adam writes. “They answered the bell after last season’s sweep and deserve all the credit in the world, but the toughest win is the one they still have to get.”
Adam’s Dodgers–Brewers Game 4 analysis will be posted later Thursday morning.
Meanwhile, the ALCS resumes with the Rays at the Guardians, tied 1-1. First pitch is 1 p.m. ET on TNT because of expected bad weather in Cleveland.
>> Read Adam’s Rays–Guardians Game 3 Preview
🏈 Thursday’s College Football Betting Menu
After two nights of Conference USA action, Thursday brings the Sun Belt, American and Pac-12 into the mix.
Thursday’s games (Circa lines; times ET):
- East Carolina (-5.5) at UAB — 7:30 p.m., ESPN
- Georgia Southern (-4) at Old Dominion — 7:30 p.m., ESPN2
- Colorado State (+14) at Texas State — 8 p.m., CBS Sports Network
>> Read Adam Burke’s Thursday College Football Best Bets
A New Betting System from Steve Makinen
After a rough college football Week 6, Steve Makinen dug into his analytics for some new betting systems. One finding caught my attention:
Conference home favorites coming off a double-digit conference loss are just 217-291 ATS (42.7%) since 2016.
Steve’s reasoning: These teams are reeling from a bad conference loss and may not be well positioned to cover as favorites in their next game. The system has five qualifying teams in Week 7.
>> See Steve’s New Systems and the Week 7 Matches
🏆 Now’s the Time to Enter Average Joe
The EdgeBoost Average Joe Contest starts a new quarter, so it’s a great time to get in. The second-quarter winner receives round-trip airfare for two to Las Vegas and a two-night stay at Circa Resort & Casino. Entry is free.
>> Enter the Average Joe Contest
EdgeBoost is also offering $1,000 if one of its customers finishes first in the weekly standings. A $100 deposit is required.
🏀 The NBA Betting Guide Is Out
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