Sunday Night MLB: Brewers vs. Orioles
While most will spend the day focused on the NFL, and we’ve certainly had our share of focus on Week 2, there is only one week left in the MLB regular season as of today. That means this is the last Sunday Night Baseball game on the schedule, as presumptive NL Cy Young Award winner Jacob Misiorowski and the Brewers take on Brandon Young and the Orioles in some interleague action on Peacock.
Brewers vs. Orioles is in a standalone spot on a big day with a lot of moving parts in the playoff picture. For Milwaukee, the goal is to be the No. 1 seed in the NL playoffs and they can move a game closer to that with a win. For the Orioles, it’s to keep some extremely slim playoff hopes alive.
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How to Watch Brewers vs. Orioles
Where: Peacock
When: Sunday, September 20, 7:20 p.m. ET
Brewers vs. Orioles MLB Odds
Milwaukee Brewers -205 // Baltimore Orioles +168
Total: 7.5 (-115/-105)
Brewers vs. Orioles Prediction
Pick: Brewers Run Line -1.5 (-115)
The Brewers knew that Jacob Misiorowski was going to be good and strike out a lot of batters. I’m not sure that they expected him to be this good. The 24-year-old ace has a 1.89 ERA with a 2.08 xERA and a 2.19 FIP over 166.1 innings of work. He’s averaging 100.5 mph with his fastball and has struck out 243 batters over his 28 starts. The most incredible thing about Miz’s season is that he has only issued 42 walks for a 6.6% BB%.
When he made his debut last season, Misiorowski struck out 31.9% of the batters he faced, but also walked 11.4% of them over 66 innings. Over 233.2 innings of work in the minors, he walked 140 batters, a 14% BB%. Somehow, he got to his first full season in the big leagues with the best hitters on the planet and dramatically reduced his walk rate. By the way, for those who might have kids playing baseball at a pretty high level and are worried about them getting seen and getting some exposure, Misiorowski was drafted in 2022 out of Crowder College in Neosho, MO. Interestingly, that was the same school that teammate Aaron Ashby came from. If you are good, scouts will find you.
Brandon Young is pretty good, too, as the Orioles right-hander makes what could be his final start of the season. The 27-year-old Young has worked 145.2 MLB innings plus 16.2 innings in the minors. Last season, he only threw 91 innings over three levels, including 12 starts in the Majors. This is easily the biggest workload of his career and he threw 106 pitches last time out against the Mets, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a shorter effort here today.
He has a 3.65 ERA with a 4.42 xERA and a 4.57 FIP over his first full MLB season, with a low K% and a few too many homers to explain the high FIP. Young has only struck out 18.8% of opposing batters, less than half of what Misiorowski has punched out. But, Young has only allowed a 6.6% Barrel% and has induced a high rate of pop ups that effectively count as strikeouts to be a more effective arm.
Young has fatigued, though, as he’s allowed a .451 SLG in the second half with 12 homers over 61.1 innings compared to nine homers in 84.1 innings in the first half. He’s actually allowed a .279/.389/.541 slash over 15.1 innings and 73 batters faced here in September. Furthermore, his SLG against at home is 60 points higher than it is on the road, as he has allowed 14 homers in 79.2 innings compared to seven HR in 66 IP on the road.
Robert Gasser and Trevor Rogers each twirled gems yesterday, combining for 15 innings of one-run ball with 10 strikeouts (10 for Rogers) and just six hits. As a result, both guys were able to give their respective bullpens a light day. We’ll see if that factors into today’s game, as the Brewers have picked up a couple of one-run victories thus far.
Brewers vs. Orioles Prediction
I often don’t like the “double negative” on a run line, which is the -1.5 and then minus vig, but Misiorowski vs. Young is a really big mismatch and even more of one with how Young is trending. The Brewers should have Brice Turang, Jake Bauers, and Christian Yelich all back in the lineup against a righty after that trio sat yesterday. Bauers has actually sat three days in a row, though he did pinch hit on Friday, so it seems like this is just some maintenance late in the season.
Pick: Brewers Run Line -1.5 (-115)
Check out the OptaAI MLB Player Prop projections and our proprietary JOLT and VOLT betting models to see what the top ones are for today.
