Best Bets on Today’s MLB Player Props Market
The 2023 MLB season is underway and VSiN has you covered with every way you can possibly bet on a baseball game. As always, Adam Burke will have daily best bets to give you some ideas of what to back when it comes to moneylines, run lines and totals. However, I’m tackling player props here, and I’m targeting Drew Smyly, Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Jon Gray on Friday, April 21st. Keep reading to find out how I’m betting on each of them.
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MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on April 21
Here are our favorite MLB prop bets for Friday, April 21:
Los Angeles Dodgers (-165, 9.5) at Chicago Cubs
Drew Smyly pitched against the Dodgers on Sunday, when he gave up only one earned run over 5.2 innings of work. And while it’s hard to shut down an offense two starts in a row, we like Smyly’s chances of turning in a similar performance.
Last season, Smyly had a 2.42 ERA in his nine starts at Wrigley Field, and he was also 4-1 with a 2.05 ERA in day games. With that in mind, the veteran is going to be pitching in conditions that are very favorable for him.
There’s no denying that this Los Angeles offense can be dangerous, but the team is also at its best against right-handed pitching. That’s also hard to ignore when you’re looking at a matchup like this.
Bet: Smyly Under 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (+100)
Miami Marlins at Cleveland Guardians (-130, 8)
Jazz Chisholm Jr. is batting just .235 this season, but he does have a double, a triple and three homers. The 25-year-old should find a way to get himself going soon, and he’s not going to get many better matchups than this. Chisholm hits right-handed pitching really hard and now gets to face Zach Plesac, who has a 6.92 ERA this season.
Plesac looks like a guy that could be out of the majors in the near future. His velocity and spin rates are all slightly down from last year, which were already down from the year prior. And his hard hit percentages have been high for years now.
Overall, Chisholm just should be able to make some good contact against Plesac, making it hard to believe he won’t pick up at least two extra bases in this one.
Bet: Chisholm Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers (-200, 8)
While the Athletics have been historically awful to start the season, the team’s strikeout rate is just 23.6% thus far. That’s not as bad as you might think it’d be. That makes it hard to see a path towards Jon Gray going over the 6.5-strikeout total tonight.
Gray had seven strikeouts in his first start of the season, but he had just four against the Chicago Cubs in his next start. After that, Gray had to exit after 2.0 innings in a meeting with the Houston Astros, as he was hit in the elbow with a line drive. This will be the righty’s first start since that injury, and who’s to say he’ll be feeling 100% healthy here?
This just seems like a good spot to fade Gray. There’s some risk that comes with hoping a team as lousy as the A’s make consistent contact, but Gray doesn’t exactly deserve the benefit of the doubt.
Bet: Gray Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-115)
Did you know that you can parlay these three picks together at +741 odds? Try out our VSiN Parlay Calculator HERE!
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