MLB Best Bets Today May 8
It appears to be all systems go for Friday night in MLB, as minimal weather threats should give us all 30 teams in action. The gaps in both leagues between the superior teams and the rest continue to grow, with the Yankees and Rays as the only AL teams that sit more than one game over .500 and the Braves, Cubs, and Dodgers, and to some degree the Padres, make it look like four of the six playoff spots are already accounted for just over six weeks into the season.
Max Fried will make his ninth start of the season tonight, while 16 other pitchers will make their eighth starts and five more will make their seventh. While we’ve had our fair share of injuries so far, a lot of pitchers have stayed healthy at the outset of the year.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for May 8:
Houston Astros at Cincinnati Reds (-136, 9)
6:10 p.m. ET
There is a ton of pressure on Nick Lodolo as he comes back to the bigs following a minor league rehab assignment. This will be Lodolo’s first start at the MLB level this season after that pesky blister issue that he’s dealt with for a long time popped up once again. Lodolo told reporters that he isolated a problem with his slider grip that has been causing the blister problem, so it does make me wonder if his slider could be less effective as he works through that change.
Sure, he struck out 13 of 36 batters in his two most recent rehab starts, but one was against High-A hitters and the other was at Triple-A where he had six strikeouts against a couple of walks and gave up two runs on five hits in 4.1 innings. He threw 79 pitches in that start, so I’d guess he’s around 85 or 90 here, but he had a lot less pitch efficiency in that Triple-A start against Omaha.
Not surprisingly given all the right-handed bats, the Astros are 10th in wOBA against LHP this season. They are seventh in SLG, something that could be a positive playing a weekend set at Great American Ball Park.
The Redsgression has been happening that I expected. They’ve lost four one-run games in a row and have lost seven games in a row overall. The bullpen has collapsed on itself and the offense has really regressed, as the league adjusted to Sal Stewart. Over his last 67 PA, Stewart is slashing .183/.254/.300 with a .252 wOBA and a 50 wRC+. In May so far, he’s batting .103/.161/.207. It’s hard to hit at this level.
The idea of backing Mike Burrows certainly seems scary, as he has a 5.97 ERA with a 5.18 FIP, but he’s also one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball based on his 3.85 xERA. He has allowed just a 33.9% Hard Hit% and a 6.8% Barrel%, so he’s induced a ton of weak contact, but has allowed eight homers and a .373 BABIP. He has a .396 wOBA against with a .311 xwOBA. There are a lot of positive signs in his profile and I’m hoping that they show up here. The Reds have struck out over 26% of the time in their last seven games with an 82 wRC+.
Both bullpens stink. The Reds have a 7.79 ERA with a 7.64 xERA and a 6.97 FIP over the last 14 days, while the Astros have a 7.44 ERA with a 5.36 xERA and a 6.04 FIP. The Reds bullpen has eaten three losses and two blown saves since Sunday and also lost closer Emilio Pagan, which is probably addition by subtraction, but the bullpen roles have been thrown into a state of flux.
The Reds certainly do deserve to be favored, but I think they’re favored by too much here given all of the above factors.
Pick: Astros +113
Los Angeles Angels at Toronto Blue Jays (-163, 7.5)
7:07 p.m. ET
A good pitching matchup is on the slate here with Reid Detmers for the visiting Angels and Dylan Cease for the host Blue Jays. I’m looking at a player prop here and it will be Detmers Under 5.5 Strikeouts at -107.
Over seven starts, Detmers has 9, 4, 4, 9, 5, 5, 8 strikeouts, as he’s generated a lot of swings and misses with a 12.9% SwStr% and a 35% Chase Rate. An 83.9% Z-Contact% is carrying a lot of weight for him in terms of his strikeouts. The Blue Jays are fifth in Z-Contact% at 87% and had an 87.5% Z-Contact% against Detmers in his start against them back on April 20. Detmers was below his season average Chase Rate in that start and I’d expect something similar again here.
The Blue Jays have a league-low 16.9% K% against LHP on the season. They haven’t really done much with that level of contact, slashing just .222/.306/.344, but they’re not striking out a lot. Detmers even went six innings in that start and fell short of going Over 5.5.
Toronto will expand the zone a lot, as they lead the league in Chase Rate, but are also second in O-Contact% at 65.9%. I’ll take my chances here that the Blue Jays keep up their aggressiveness and keep making contact at the rate that they do or better.
Our OptaAI MLB Player Prop Projections have Detmers down for 5.37 strikeouts, which means the vig should be -123 on the Under, yielding a 3.4% edge on this prop at this number.
Pick: Reid Detmers (LAA) Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-107)
Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox (-136, 8.5)
7:10 p.m. ET
To Fenway Park we go for the Rays vs. Red Sox, as Tampa took down Game 1 by an 8-4 count last night. I think the Rays have a good matchup tonight against Connelly Early, the second-year southpaw out of UVA. There are a lot of things pointing in the wrong direction for Early and the day of reckoning is on its way.
He has a 42% Hard Hit% against with a 14% Barrel%. That’s a bottom 6% Barrel% and he ranks in the 14th percentile in average exit velocity against. He’s currently posting a 3.79 ERA, but a 5.34 xERA and a 4.90 FIP. He’s overperforming relative to his xwOBA by 33 points. Righties own a .526 SLG against his fastball and he’ll see a lot of them tonight, as the Rays employ what most small-market teams do, a lot of platoons.
Early also has an 11.3% BB% and his 20.5% K% and 81.4% LOB% don’t look sustainable with just an 8.8% SwStr%.
Boston has been good against lefties, so I’m not eager to back Jesse Scholtens and the Rays on the moneyline, but I do like Rays 1st 5 Team Total Over 1.5 at -125. If this line does move up to 2.5, as I think it will, I’d still like that bet at plus money.
Pick: Rays 1st 5 Team Total Over 1.5 Runs (-125)
Seattle Mariners (-136, 8) at Chicago White Sox
7:40 p.m. ET
Two great pitching stories of 2026 meet up here, as the Mariners send Emerson Hancock to the hill and the White Sox will counter with Sean Burke. What a difference a season makes, as Hancock comes in with a 2.59 ERA, 3.64 xERA, and a 3.69 FIP just one year removed from a 4.90/5.52/5.08 pitcher slash in those three categories. Similarly, Burke rides in with a 2.72 ERA, 3.37 xERA, and a 3.19 FIP after putting up a 4.22/4.93/4.92 pitcher slash last season with those numbers.
Hancock basically reinvented himself as a pitcher. He lowered his arm slot and shifted around his pitch usage, which have been big upgrades thus far. His K% is up from 16.6% to 28.9%, aided greatly by 14 strikeouts in his last outing against the Royals. His BB% is down from 8.1% to 3.8%, so he’s made big strides in both the control and command departments.
He threw 103 pitches and completed seven innings in that last start. With Bryce Miller eyeing a return, there has been a lot of talk about Hancock’s role going forward. Personally, I think he should stay in the rotation, but there are some underlying metrics that make this a very important start for him.
Let’s start with more than a run difference between his ERA and xERA. A lot of that stems from a 10.5% Barrel% and a 40% Hard Hit%, as he has allowed seven homers, but six of them have been solo shots. His 93.2% LOB% is unsustainable, no matter what happens the rest of the way. The absolute best pitcher in that department will be in the mid-to-low 80s when the season ends, so that’s going to turn a bit.
Also, Hancock’s high K% and low BB% are probably not going to keep up with the pace that they are at now. Hancock only has an 11.9% CStr%, so he’s not getting a lot of called strikes. He is getting a lot of foul balls and then putting hitters away, but his 23.8% CSW% (called + swinging strike percentage) is well below the league average for starting pitchers at 26.9%. The league CStr% is 16.3%. If Hancock’s foul balls start to become balls in play, then what?
In Burke’s case (no relation, btw), he’s just learned how to harness a pretty elite arsenal in terms of spin rate and movement. His K% is actually down from last season, but his BB% and HR/FB% have been cut drastically and he has allowed just a 36.5% Hard Hit% and a 4.3% Barrel%. His CSW% is 26.7% and his SwStr% is quite a bit lower than Hancock’s, but he’s thrown a lot of called strikes and then gotten guys to expand the zone and induce weak contact.
Burke doesn’t have a high-speed fastball, but it has elite spin and he has 88th percentile Extension, so it comes up on hitters very fast and gives the illusion of rising because of the high spin rate. It is hardly surprising that guys are batting .203 with a .322 SLG against his fastball. He’s also been tunneling his curveball very well off the fastball. While he hasn’t generated as much swing and miss with the pitch, hitters are pounding it into the ground.
Both bullpens are rested here. I’m looking to fade some of those Hancock notes above and also his 103-pitch outing last time out. Plus, the White Sox are back at home and they’ve been playing some pretty good baseball for a team with low expectations, while the Mariners have to be getting frustrated with how they’ve underperformed.
Pick: White Sox +113
