MLB Best Bets Today May 29
Friday Night Lights: MLB Style is the story for tonight, as all 30 teams will take the field and the first game gets going at 6:40 p.m. ET, so everything will end under the lights for tonight. Even though all of the games are late, we’ll have some warm temps and some good hitting conditions in a lot of places. We’ll see if that leads to some runs.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for May 29:
Padres vs. Nationals Prediction
Pick: Nationals -119
Lucas Giolito returns to where it all began, as he was drafted by the Nationals way back in 2012 as the 16th overall pick. He only pitched at the MLB level for Washington in 2016 before getting sent to the South Side of Chicago. A decade later, he’ll make just his second career start at Nationals Park in a road uniform. It was a good one last season, as he went 7.2 innings with one run on four hits, but Giolito is a different pitcher now and the Nationals are a dramatically different lineup.
So far, it looks as though Giolito has been good over his two starts covering 10 innings with a 2.70 ERA, but let’s look deeper. And we don’t have to look that much deeper. He has walked eight of 41 batters and only struck out five of them. His velocity is down about 3 mph from previous seasons. While he’s done a great job of limiting hard contact, leading to his .185 BABIP, he’s been an extreme fly ball guy with starts in Seattle and San Diego. Nationals Park is a different beast, especially as it warms up.
Also, the Nationals are really utilizing platoons effectively and Giolito has five walks against just one strikeout when facing left-handed batters. I feel like this could be a reckoning type of start for a guy with diminished velo, fly ball tendencies against a high-SLG lineup, and in this ballpark under these conditions.
The Nationals will roll with opener Paxton Schultz, who has allowed 14 runs in 15 appearances, but seven of them came in one catastrophic outing. Schultz has a 21/5 K/BB ratio and a Pull% under 30%, so I would expect him to be effective more often than not. His ERA has ballooned to 5.30, but his 3.17 FIP and SIERA are better indicators of his true performance level.
Southpaw Andrew Alvarez will follow, as the 6-foot-3 left-hander makes his fifth appearance of the season. He’s allowed four runs on 10 hits with 16 strikeouts against just three walks in 12.2 innings of work. The Padres are 28th in wOBA against LHP over the last 14 days at .263 with a 25.4% K%. Stretch it to 30 days and they are 29th in wOBA against LHP at .258 with a 26.4% K%. Stretch it to the full season and they are dead last in wOBA at .269.
The Nationals just had their first day off after playing 16 straight days, so I’d expect a renewed and reinvigorated ballclub that has exceeded expectations to this point and would love to keep going.
Brewers vs. Astros Prediction
Pick: Brewers -122, Brewers 1st 5 -115
The Brewers don’t want to waste any bullets from Coleman Crow. That’s why he’s in the big league rotation after missing the entirety of the 2024 season and pitching only 50 innings in the minors in 2025. Barring a blow-up, Crow will go over 50 innings for this season tonight in his third MLB start. He’s allowed three runs on seven hits with seven strikeouts against one walk in his 10.1 innings of work.
Crow is a 5-foot-10 righty, very short by present-day pitching standards, but he has an elite spin rate profile across the board. High spin rate guys are able to generate swings and misses, which Crow did better in his second start, but also wind up being adept at staying off the barrel because the tight rotations on their pitches aid with movement and make it tougher for hitters to square up. That’s part of the reason why Crow has only allowed a 32.3% Hard Hit% and a couple of Barrels thus far in 31 batted ball events.
Across two levels this season, Crow has held righties to a .216/.256/.351 slash in 78 PA. Last season, righties only slashed .179/.242/.274 in 91 PA. As a cutter/curve guy predominantly, everything is tailing away or down and away from righties, who have to extend to make contact and that makes it difficult to make authoritative contact. Plus, Crow has that small 5-foot-10 frame, but just about league average Extension. It’s a really fascinating profile and the type of pitcher that the Brewers can turn into a legitimate weapon.
Similarly, I do like Houston starter Kai-Wei Teng. He’s a full-time starter, at least for now until Hunter Brown comes back, and has allowed three runs on nine hits over 14 innings in his last three starts. What concerns me is that he’s walked eight against his 14 strikeouts. Like Crow, he’s done a great job of mitigating hard contact, but he doesn’t seem to have the same control.
Also, the Brewers should be able to throw seven lefties at Teng. Lefties are slashing .226/.324/.435 with a .338 wOBA in 71 PA this season compared to righties with a paltry .152/.243/.167 slash and a .203 wOBA. Teng’s 11.6% BB% as a starter concerns me here because the Brewers are usually a patient lineup that does a good job of working counts. Lefties also own a 46.5% Pull% against him compared to righties with a 40.8% Pull%, so I find that there’s more SLG upside with Milwaukee based on the matchup.
I’m playing both 1st 5 and full game here. First, a lot of my handicap is predicated on Crow against the Astros and Teng against the Brewers, so that’s the 1st 5 angle. As far as the full game goes, the Brewers should have a pretty distinct bullpen advantage here. They had yesterday off, so everybody is rested, whereas the Astros did not. Also, the Brewers just have the better bullpen. But, anything can happen and the 1st 5 gives me some protection.
Yankees vs. Athletics Prediction
Pick: Yankees Run Line -1.5 (+118)
Pretty simple handicap here. It’s Luis Severino at home. He’s made only four home starts this season and allowed 15 runs on 25 hits in those outings. Opposing hitters have slashed .272/.362/.533 with a .391 wOBA as he’s given up six of his eight homers.
If we look at last season, Severino posted a 6.01 ERA with a .288/.352/.442 slash against and a .345 wOBA. Severino has made 19 starts in Sacramento since the team moved there. He’s allowed 4+ runs in 12 of them. The Yankees are seventh in wOBA against RHP over the last 14 days at .330. Plus, they were teammates of Severino’s, so they know his tendencies and pitch sequencing.
This will be the fourth start for Carlos Rodon since returning from injury. He has a 4.15 ERA, but a 2.94 xERA and a 3.22 FIP. He’s walked 11 and struck out 17, so he’s thrown a lot of pitches, but a 55.2% GB% should be a positive pitching in this minor league ballpark. He’s only allowed a 20% Hard Hit% on 30 batted ball events and has a 12.6% SwStr%, so the stuff looks good.
New York’s bullpen is well-rested with the travel day yesterday. The A’s are 21st in wOBA against LHP at .299 and dead last at .241 over the last 14 days, albeit in just 70 PA.
