MLB Best Bets Today May 26
A good night for baseball and a good night for offense is on tap on Tuesday, as all 30 teams take the field and we’ll have good hitting conditions in a few places, including Fenway Park for the Braves vs. Red Sox matchup. With a pretty calm weather pattern, no games are really at risk this evening and that means we can just handicap the matchups without all the extra stuff.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for May 26:
Rays vs. Orioles Prediction
Pick: Orioles -107
Griffin Jax makes his sixth start here, as the Rays recently converted the one-time setup man into a starting pitcher. So far, starting has looked good on Jax with a 1.42 ERA over 19 innings of work. But, he does have a 3.63 xERA with a 3.54 FIP and a 4.25 xFIP in those five starts, as he has a 14/8 K/BB ratio and is living off of a .240 BABIP with an 86.7% LOB% and a 5.3% HR/FB%.
All three of those numbers look unsustainable to me, especially if he’s going to keep running a double-digit BB% and lag behind in the K% department. This will be his second straight start against the Orioles, so we’ll see how both sides adjust. Jax basically abandoned his four-seamer in the last start and threw a lot more changeups and curveballs and got a ton of chases outside the zone. Will Baltimore make the adjustment?
Bax was terrific last time out against his former organization, as he allowed a solo homer and only one other hit over six innings of work. He struck out six and walked three. Even though he got very little chase outside the zone, his 30.8% Hard Hit% against was one of his lowest of the season.
While the Rays are still swinging it well and their offensive numbers look strong, they have only hit 18 HR in the last 30 days. It should also be noted that they are 19-5 at home with a +34 run differential and 15-12 on the road with a +4 run differential. The pitching staff has limited teams to just 3.54 R/G at home, while allowing 4.44 R/G on the road.
Baz has had his issues at home and yesterday’s game wound up being a toss-up in which both bullpens had some difficulties, but Jax is facing a team for the second time for the first time as a starter and he’s also pitching on the road, where he’s had his two lowest SwStr% and allowed three runs on eight hits in nine innings with more walks (5) than strikeouts (4).
Both bullpens have struggled the last two weeks with a 5.81 ERA, but the Orioles have a 3.84 FIP and the Rays a 4.84 FIP, so one has had worse luck than the other.
Cubs vs. Pirates Prediction
Pick: Under 8 (-108)
Jordan Wicks will make his 2026 debut and Braxton Ashcraft will look to continue his stellar season as the Cubs hope to snap a nine-game skid on Tuesday night. During this nine-game run, the Cubs have scored 3, 8, 3, 2, 0, 2, 0, 5, and 1 run, as the bats are asleep and they’ve given up at least five runs in all but two of those games.
The Cubs had to do a hard reset on Wicks after allowing 12 runs on 16 hits in two starts on April 28 and May 3, but he’s been strong since then with one run allowed on seven hits in his last 15 innings of work. He has walked eight in that span against 12 strikeouts, but he throws left-handed and that’s a big positive in this split against the Pirates.
Pittsburgh’s offense has largely been driven by the left-handed bats. Spencer Horwitz has a 148 wRC+ against RHP, but just a 71 wRC+ against LHP. Brandon Lowe has a 177 wRC+ against RHP and just an 83 wRC+ against LHP. Oneil Cruz is hitting lefties better than righties, but I assume his 42.9% K% and .485 BABIP eventually come into play. Over the last 14 days, the Pirates own a .246/.287/.343 slash against LHP with a 29.4% K% and just a 4.9% BB%. Stretch that to 30 days and it’s .231/.304/.331 with a 30.0% K% and a 9.3% BB%.
Ashcraft has a 2.89 ERA with a 2.84 xERA and a 3.15 FIP over his 62.1 innings of work. It’s a true breakout season for the right-hander, as he’s struck out 65 and walked just 16 with no clear regression signs in the profile. Nearly 48% of balls in play are ground balls and he’s racked up over a punchy per inning. That’s my kind of guy right there. He’s only allowed a 37% Hard Hit% and a 5.6% Barrel%.
Despite yesterday’s tight 2-1 game, both bullpens are in really good shape for tonight’s tilt. The Cubs also have three lefties that they can deploy in relief tonight if they wish, none of whom pitched last night.
Astros vs. Rangers Prediction
Pick: Jack Leiter (TEX) Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+101)
There is a lot of doom and gloom around the Rangers these days, as the team has dropped four straight and seven of 10, including last night’s loss to the Astros. They’ll be looking for a bounce back tonight with Leiter on the hill. The Astros are sending out Jason Alexander, so Texas is a decent-sized favorite.
Rather than lay the price with Texas in a good matchup for Leiter, though, let’s look at the strikeout prop. Leiter has struck out 30.9% of right-handed batters this season, racking up 34 punchouts in 110 plate appearances. He struck out six Astros over seven innings in arguably his best start this season two outings ago with one run allowed on three hits.
Houston owns a 23.2% K% against RHP over the last 14 days, as the offense has really gone into the tank in that split, slashing just .205/.279/.335. Leiter should see at least six right-handed sticks in the lineup, though eight of them were in the lineup yesterday against righty Kumar Rocker. He struck out five over five innings, but also gave up four runs.
Leiter’s Outs Recorded prop is heavily juiced to the Over 17.5 side, so that seems promising for this play.
Phillies vs. Padres Prediction
Pick: Phillies -104
Aaron Nola and Randy Vasquez are the slated starters here, as Nola has some positive regression signs that have a chance of coming through in this one. First off, this start comes at Petco Park, which is always a good thing for a pitcher with major home run issues like Nola. Second, the Padres are a right-handed-heavy lineup and he owns a 26/2 K/BB ratio against RHB on the season in 98 plate appearances. While they are slugging .516 off of him, and lefties .495, Nola’s .364 BABIP against from RHB shouldn’t stick around forever.
Nola has a 6.04 ERA with a 4.75 xERA and a 4.43 FIP. His 3.69 xFIP is an indicator of how unlucky he’s gotten from a home run standpoint, but that’s also been a chronic thing throughout his career, so it probably isn’t bad luck anymore. Nevertheless, this should be a good venue and a better matchup than most for him. The Padres are dead last in wOBA at .282 over the last 30 days, slashing .205/.277/.353 and their right-handed batters against right-handed pitchers rank 23rd in wOBA at .297 with a .223/.293/.373 slash.
Vasquez is one of the sport’s biggest anomalies, as he has a career 3.89 ERA with a 5.54 xERA and a 4.62 FIP. This season, he has a 2.96 ERA, but a 5.43 xERA. He’s actually improved both his K% and BB% numbers this season, but I do worry greatly about his 45% Hard Hit% and 12.5% Barrel%. Lefties are slashing .270/.323/.426 against him and left-handed sticks have been the better part of the Phillies lineup throughout the season.
Vasquez didn’t strike out any of the 21 batters he faced last time out against the Dodgers and allowed three runs on six hits. In his previous start against Seattle, he went six shutout innings, but allowed an average exit velo of 95.8 mph. He has allowed a 54% Hard Hit% with 27 hard-hit balls in his last three starts.
The Padres actually have a negative run differential at home and only a +3 run diff on the season despite their 31-22 record. They’re a team that has overperformed a bit. Meanwhile, the Phillies are 18-8 under Don Mattingly.
Mariners vs. Athletics Prediction
Pick: Mariners -108
The Mariners were good to us yesterday in a favorite role and now we’ll look at them in a slight underdog role. Pitching in Sacramento has to be a mental thing at this point for Luis Severino. In 82.1 innings at home last season, Severino allowed a .288/.352/.442 slash with a .345 wOBA and pitched to a 6.01 ERA. This season, he has a 5.55 ERA with a .272/.362/.533 slash against and a .391 wOBA in 24.1 innings of work.
This will be just his fifth home start of the season. He’s allowed 4+ runs in three of them. Even though the overall numbers don’t look great for the Mariners since May 14 when Cal Raleigh was put on the IL, he was posting a .161/.243/.317 slash while primarily batting second. He batted cleanup for four games before getting put on the injured list. He had struck out over 31% of the time with 33 strikeouts in 83 PA with men on base and 16 in 38 PA with RISP. He was a black hole in the lineup and now he’s not there.
Emerson Hancock comes in with a 3.07 ERA, 4.09 xERA and a 3.57 FIP over 58.2 innings of work. He’s been a very pleasant surprise for the Mariners this season, displaying some excellent K/BB numbers with a 44.2% GB%. He’s given up eight homers, but seven have been solo shots and you can deal with those. More importantly, he’s been much sharper this season on the road than he had been in his previous MLB stints. While he has allowed five homers, leading to a high FIP, he’s limited the damage otherwise and he’ll have a very well-rested bullpen behind him.
The Mariners used only Luis Castillo and Bryce Miller yesterday as they coasted with a big lead. All of the relief arms are in great shape as a result.
If Severino pitches well, so be it, but he’s made 19 home starts and allowed 4+ runs in 12 of them. With a lead, the Mariners should be able to lock it down.
