MLB Best Bets Today April 14:
Two-thirds of the MLB teams will take the field on Monday, as we have 10 games, including four interleague matchups. There are only two games in the AL and four in the NL as the third full week of the 2025 season gets underway.
Offensive numbers around the league continue to be very underwhelming with a .234/.312/.381 slash line. It’s still early and chilly conditions haven’t helped, but the .234 BA would be the lowest in at least the last 100 years per FanGraphs and lowest we’ve had since the league batted .237 in 1968. The .381 SLG would be the lowest since 1992 when the league posted a .377 SLG.
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Interestingly, though, the league BB% of 9.2% is the best we’ve seen since 2000. I’ll be keeping an eye on that to see how it plays out as well.
This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.
My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022). This year, I intend to work in more props, derivatives, and maybe even some parlay bets to have a more diversified MLB portfolio and attack some different markets. What worked for me in the past has not worked as well the last two years, so I’m looking to make some changes and that includes my bet distribution by type and market.
Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats.
Here are the MLB best bets today for April 14:
Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays (-130, 8.5)
7:05 p.m. ET
We’ve got an interesting pitching matchup tonight in Tampa between Tanner Houck and Shane Baz. Baz has gotten plenty of platitudes so far this season thanks to two very good starts to open the season. They did come against the Pirates and Angels, though. I don’t think the Angels offensive performance is very sustainable and the Pirates have been one of the worst offenses in the league this season.
He’s getting a noteworthy step up in class here with Boston’s lineup. While the 16 strikeouts for Baz seem extremely impressive, it is worth noting that he’s had a Z-Contact% over 90% in each start. So he’s been very reliant on getting chases outside of the zone. He has a strong 17.2% called strike percentage, but the Red Sox bring an aggressive offense to the table, so they’ll be looking to pick out pitches early in the count.
I was very encouraged by Houck’s last start against Toronto. He had a couple of duds against the Rangers and Orioles and then had 6.2 innings of one-run ball against the Blue Jays. He had a nice velo bump, as it looks like the Red Sox made a couple of mechanical tweaks. His release points looked more consistent and he had better spin on his sinker.
As a result, Houck had his best GB% in a start this season and also did a much better job of limiting hard contact. His HH% was 35% in his last start after giving up 19 hard-hit balls over his first two starts, including four Barrels. I like those positive trends and I think this is going to be a real test for Baz as he faces a much better lineup than the last two that he has seen, especially on a warm night in Tampa.
Both bullpens are on a similar wavelength from a usage standpoint, except for Aroldis Chapman, who is probably unavailable after working four of the last five days. Boston should be able to get late-inning outs if they need them.
Pick: Red Sox +110
Houston Astros at St. Louis Cardinals (-112, 7)
7:45 p.m. ET
We should be in for a good pitching matchup here, as Framber Valdez and Sonny Gray come together at Busch Stadium. Valdez is off to a fine start with a 2.50 ERA over three outings, including 21 strikeouts, but he has gotten very fortunate to run a .205 BABIP with the amount of high-velocity contact he has allowed. He’s got a 43.9% Hard Hit% rate with a 12.2% Barrel% over his three starts.
The Cardinals boast a top-five offense against southpaws here in the early going, slashing .269/.373/.414 with a .351 wOBA and a 128 wRC+. Valdez isn’t getting a whole lot of chases outside the zone thus far, so the Cardinals should be able to get some pitches to hit with some authority and hopefully they find some holes on the ground. Valdez is allowing a higher Pull% thus far than he has in any season, so that’s another reason why the .205 BABIP seems unlikely to continue.
This should be a good lineup for Gray to face, as the Astros are extremely right-handed-heavy. Righties were limited to a .210/.246/.348 slash with a .258 wOBA last season, while lefties banged out a .248/.308/.462 slash with a .331 wOBA. Gray was also far better at home than he was on the road, with a difference of more than 90 points in wOBA and an ERA that was nearly 2.5 runs higher away from Busch Stadium.
So, those are two factors that should work in his favor, along with how well he has pitched early in the season before some nagging injuries and other maladies start to impact his performance as the season goes along.
Gray has had some command woes of his own with six Barrels allowed and a Hard Hit% of 48.7%, but he has generated a lot of swing and miss so far. The Astros are just 23rd in wOBA at .285 and have an 87 wRC+ on the season. They aren’t really hitting for much power, so that should help Gray in this one.
The Cardinals are actually an underdog for the 1st 5, while being a full-game favorite. The Astros have the better bullpen between the two by the numbers thus far and a much higher upside due to their ability to miss bats. So, I’ll take STL for the 1st 5 in this one.
Pick: Cardinals 1st 5 (-110)
