MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Monday, May 4.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our brand new Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
6:40 PM Eastern
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins
Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola struggled to a 6.01 ERA with 1.7 home runs per nine innings allowed last season and has very similar numbers this season with a 6.03 ERA and 1.7 home runs per nine innings, while Marlins starting pitcher Janson Junk has done a great job of not hurting himself this season, posting a 3.00 ERA with 0.5 home runs and 2.2 walks per nine innings and faces a Phillies offense that is 28th in scoring with just under 3.8 runs per game.
Pick: Marlins Moneyline +100 and Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Marlins -123 and Total 8.1
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Rays starting pitcher Nick Martinez has been a master at getting soft contact this season, posting a 1.70 ERA despite getting only 5.8 strikeouts per nine innings with 0.8 home runs and 2.2 walks per nine innings allowed, while Blue Jays starting pitcher Eric Lauer has had big struggles this season, posting a 6.00 ERA and a 6.48 fielding independent with 2.3 home runs and 4.3 walks per nine innings.
Pick: Rays Moneyline -112
Greg’s Handicap: Rays -136
7:05 PM Eastern
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees
Orioles starting pitcher Shane Baz has pitched better than his 4.50 ERA would indicate, allowing 0.8 home runs and 2.9 walks per nine innings for a 3.74 fielding independent, while Yankees starting pitcher Cam Schlittler has been dominant, posting a 1.51 ERA and 1.54 fielding independent with only one home run allowed in 41 2/3 innings of work this season with 10.6 strikeouts and 1.3 walks per nine innings allowed and faces an Orioles lineup that is 24th in road scoring with just over 3.9 runs per game.
Pick: Orioles vs. Yankees Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.8
7:40 PM Eastern
Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals
Guardians starting pitcher Tanner Bibee has gotten off to a so-so start to the 2026 season, posting a 4.08 ERA with 1.3 home runs and 3.6 walks per nine innings and should benefit from facing a Royals lineup that is 25th in scoring with 4.1 runs per game, and the Guardians lineup has also struggled, ranking 21st in scoring with just over 4.2 runs per game, while Royals starting pitcher Michael Wacha has been solid with a 3.13 ERA this season, allowing just one home run per nine innings.
Pick: Guardians vs. Royals Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.9
7:45 PM Eastern
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs
The wind is expected to be blowing out quite heavily at Wrigley Field on Monday, but Cubs starting pitcher Edward Cabrera has been solid this season in all sorts of conditions. Despite a career-low 7.4 strikeouts per nine innings, he has a 3.06 ERA with 0.8 home runs per nine innings allowed, while Reds starting pitcher Chase Petty had a remarkably awful 19.50 ERA in his three MLB appearances last season, but has looked better at the AAA level this season with a 4.36 ERA and 10.6 strikeouts per nine innings. Both starting pitchers are supported by bullpens that are in the top 15 in ERA, with the Cubs 12th at 3.87 and the Reds 14th at 4.14.
Pick: Reds vs. Cubs Under 11.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 10.7
8:10 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Houston Astros
The Astros officially give the start on Monday to Steven Okert, who by trade is a relief pitcher and has not gone longer than 1 2/3 innings in any of his 16 appearances this season, with Ryan Weiss expected to be the bulk pitcher. Weiss was a star in South Korea in the KBO last season but has struggled to a 6.65 ERA, though he is getting 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings, with much of this coming in the unfamiliar role of entering games in the middle and late innings, while Dodgers starting pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto has a 2.87 ERA with one home run and 2.2 walks per nine innings. Yamamoto, for his career, has been far more dominant away from home than at home, posting a 2.16 ERA with fewer than 0.5 home runs per nine innings allowed compared to a 3.30 ERA with 1.1 home runs per nine innings allowed at home.
Pick: Dodgers vs. Astros Under 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.4
9:40 PM Eastern
Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners
Braves starting pitcher JR Ritchie appears due for regression with a 5.99 fielding independent, with three home runs and six walks allowed across 12 1/3 innings in his first two career MLB starts, but has managed a 2.92 ERA to this point and had a 2.64 ERA with 0.8 home runs per nine innings allowed at the minor league level last season, while Mariners starting pitcher Logan Gilbert has a 4.03 ERA but has pitched better than that would indicate with 0.9 home runs and 1.9 walks per nine innings allowed. He faces a Braves lineup that leads the league in scoring with 5.8 runs per game overall and 6.5 runs per game away from home, while the Braves are third in bullpen ERA at 3.22.
Pick: Braves Moneyline +150
Greg’s Handicap: Braves +127
9:45 PM Eastern
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants
Padres starting pitcher Randy Vasquez has improved greatly from a season ago, lowering his ERA to 2.94 with 9.1 strikeouts per nine innings after getting only 5.3 strikeouts per nine innings last season and faces a Giants lineup that is last in scoring with 3.2 runs per game, while Trevor McDonald has a small sample size of 18 career MLB innings logged but has only allowed three total runs and one home run in four career appearances and is supported by a Giants bullpen that is second in ERA at 3.01.
Pick: Padres vs. Giants Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.9
